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Demographic changes are becoming one of the increasingly important factors affecting the functioning of the housing market. Population decline, changes in the age structure, the shrinking number of people of working age, migration, as well as changes in the size and structure of households are increasingly being analysed not only as social phenomena, but also as factors shaping demand for real estate and, consequently, its value. The significance of these processes is growing particularly when long-term depopulation and population ageing are being observed simultaneously in many regions of Europe. The consequences of these changes will be important for all participants of the housing market – not only for individual property owners, but also for institutional entities. For households, these changes will mean a potential change in the value and liquidity of the assets they own; for banks, insurers, investors or public institutions, they will mean an additional sources of risk and potential costs, primarily in case of properties securing mortgage loans. In this context, it is also becoming important to properly account for demographic risk in the process of determining property value, including prudent value, and in assessing the long-term quality of collateral portfolios.

The scale and pace of the changes currently being observed are not an entirely new phenomenon. In some European regions, depopulation and demographic ageing have already been underway for a dozen or even several dozen years, and their consequences for local real estate markets are subject to analysis and measurement. The experience of these markets can be a valuable source of information for forecasting what may be expected in regions, where similar processes are only now gaining momentum. At the same time, it is interesting to determine not only the direction of change in individual local housing markets, but also its potential scale.

The most obvious examples of European regions affected by negative demographic processes include regions of eastern Germany, northern and southern Italy, north-western Spain and parts of Central and Eastern Europe. In many of these areas, population decline has been ongoing for a dozen or several dozen years and is the result of the simultaneous impact of low birth rates, population ageing and the outflow of young residents.

Eurostat indicates that in 2023 the lowest rates of natural increase in the EU were concentrated, among others, in eastern Germany, Italy, north-western Spain, Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary and Romania. The example of eastern Germany is particularly striking: depopulation processes began there on a large scale after the country’s reunification in the early 1990s and persist in many regions to this day. In 2024, in the regions of Chemnitz, Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Thuringia and Brandenburg, the median age has already exceeded 50 years.

A similar, although somewhat differently rooted, situation can be observed in Italy and Spain. In north-western Spain, particularly advanced processes of ageing and depopulation occur in Asturias and Castile and León – the median age in these regions is already among the highest in Europe and, according to Eurostat projections, in 2050 may reach 59.1 and 57.9 years, respectively. In Italy, the problem is particularly broad: Liguria, Sardinia, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Piedmont and Molise, among others, stand out for their high median age. According to the latest forecasts by the Italian statistical office ISTAT, Italy’s population is expected to fall from 58.9 million in 2025 to approx. 55 million in 2050, with the south of the country expected to lose significantly more population than the north.

The scale of the phenomenon is much greater than just a few local cases. Between 2005 and 2025, the population of the European Union as a whole increased by around 4%, but over the same period eight countries recorded a decline in population; the largest relative declines occurred in Latvia, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Romania and Croatia. The regional picture is even more illustrative – in 2023, the population was declining in 29% of EU regions. This means that the process of demographic shrinkage is not an exceptional phenomenon affecting individual countries, but a permanent element of spatial change taking place on European markets. Importantly, the experience of these areas already makes it possible to observe not only the process of population decline itself, but also its long-term economic and social consequences, including changes in demand for housing and the functioning of local real estate markets.

The relation between demographic changes and the real estate market has been the subject of research for many years. The literature has analysed both the impact of changes in population and households on the volume of demand and the direct relationship between demographic processes and property prices. Studies conducted in various European countries also show that the scale of this impact may be significant. An analysis of the German market carried out by Christian Westermeier and Markus M. Grabka indicated that in terms of predicted demographic changes, by 2030 declines in property prices could exceed 25% in approximately one-third of German districts. These findings are complemented by the latest Banca d’Italia analysis of Italian municipalities, which estimated that a 10% decline in population is associated, on average, with a decline in apartment prices of approx. 7%. This is also confirmed by broader, supra-regional analyses, including studies by the Bank for International Settlements (Előd Takáts, “Ageing and asset prices”, BIS Working Paper No. 318, 2010^[1]; Kiyohiko G. Nishimura, Előd Takáts, “Ageing, property prices and money demand”, BIS Working Paper No. 385, 2012^[2]), covering 22 advanced economies, which point to a significant relation between population ageing and asset prices, including real estate. In turn, OECD analyses of shrinking regions show that the consequences of demographic change may go beyond price levels alone, leading to an increase in the number of unused dwellings, reduced investment and deterioration in the quality of the housing stock.

Among European markets, the German market appears particularly interesting from the perspective of analysing the relation between demographic trends and property prices. This is due to the long duration and scale of the demographic processes taking place there, the considerable degree of regional variation, and the availability of housing market data.

One of the latest and most comprehensive studies on this issue is the paper by Philipp Breidenbach, Philipp Jäger and Lisa Taruttis “Aging and real estate prices in Germany” ^[3], published in 2024. The authors used data on more than 10 thousand German municipalities and analysed the relation between changes in the age structure of the population and property prices and rents in the period from 2008 to 2020. Such a large number of observations made it possible to account for the considerable spatial differentiation of the German market and to separate the impact of demographic changes from other local factors. The results of the study indicate a statistically significant, negative impact of population ageing on both property prices and rent levels.

Particularly interesting from the point of view of assessing the possible scale of price changes are the results presented by Breidenbach, Jäger and Taruttis in their analysis of the economic significance of the estimated demographic effect. The authors do not stop at determining the average impact of population ageing on prices in Germany; instead, they use the variation in demographic changes in the municipalities studied to estimate the effect for individual parts of the country. The results of this research are unequivocal – between 2008 and 2020, the old-age dependency ratio in Germany increased from 30.8 to 34.1, which, according to the model, corresponded to a reduction in apartment prices of around 6.0% and in house prices of around 3.4%. If, however, not only the change in the share of people aged 65+ is taken into account, but the change in the entire age structure of the population, the estimated effect was much larger. Apartment prices were, on average, 12.1% lower and house prices 7.3% lower than they would have been if the age structure from 2008 had been maintained. This is an important distinction because it shows that the impact of demographics on the real estate market is not limited solely to population ageing. The declining share of younger cohorts, which are characterised by greater demand for residential space and a greater propensity to purchase real estate, is also significant.

Even more interesting for assessing the risk of a decline in property values, also from the perspective of the possibility of applying the proposed methodology to the analysis of the Polish housing market, is the fact that there are very significant differences between the areas studied. In the analysed period, the change in the old-age dependency ratio for individual municipalities ranged from -6.4 to +14.1 percentage points. After applying the coefficients estimated by the authors, this translated into a range of the impact of demographic changes on apartment prices from around +11.6% to -25.7%. In municipalities with the most favourable demographic developments, the demographic effect could therefore work towards price increases, while in the fastest-ageing municipalities it was responsible for a significant decline in price levels. The difference between the extreme cases therefore exceeded 37 percentage points.

The authors of the study then used demographic forecasts for German municipalities to estimate the potential impact of changes in the age structure in the years 2020-2050. Assuming that the relationships between age structure and prices estimated in the model remain stable in the future, the average impact of changes in the entire age structure over a thirty-year horizon would mean a decline in apartment prices of around 17.9% on average. For houses, this would be a decline of around 6.3%, and for rents – around 15.1%. Here too, however, the national average does not reflect the actual differentiation of risk. Between municipalities representing the 1st and 99th percentiles of the distribution of the pace of population ageing, the model indicated a range of the demographic impact on apartments from around +11.1% to -87.4%. For houses, this range is around +6.3% to -49.9%, and for rents – from around +7.4% to -58.6%. Such large values should not, of course, be interpreted as a forecast that apartment prices in specific German municipalities will fall by 87.4%. This is a projection of the demographic effect, obtained by applying coefficients estimated on the basis of data from 2008-2020 to forecast changes in the age structure in 2020-2050. It does not account for the potential for market adjustment, changes in supply, migration, income growth, changes in interest rates or other factors that may offset or strengthen the impact of demographics. The value of -87.4% is therefore primarily a measure of the potential scale of demographic pressure, not a forecast of a nominal decline in prices.

The results of this study therefore provide two different but mutually complementary pieces of information. On the one hand, they show that, across Germany as a whole, the population ageing observed in 2008-2020 may have been responsible for apartment prices being around 12% lower. On the other hand, they show that, with strong spatial differentiation, the same mechanism may lead to entirely different outcomes: from a slight or positive effect in regions with a favourable demographic situation to very strong downward pressure in rapidly ageing regions.

The results of the German studies make it possible to translate general conclusions on the impact of demographics into a more specific regional scale. The point is not to mechanically transfer German coefficients to Poland, but to identify areas that are on similar demographic trajectories. In Germany, a particularly clear example of regions under pressure from a simultaneously shrinking and ageing population are parts of eastern Germany, including Erzgebirgskreis, Landkreis Görlitz, Vogtlandkreis, Zwickau and Landkreis Greiz. In the case of Saxony, earlier forecasts indicated that in 2015-2030 the population of Landkreis Görlitz was expected to fall by around 11-14%, depending on the variant, and in Erzgebirgskreis by around 10-15%. These are regions that had already experienced population outflow for many years, while forecasts assumed a further deepening of this process.

Importantly, the latest 2026 forecast by the Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (German Economic Institute – IW) shows that the consequences of adverse demographics are not limited to a reduction in the number of residents. In a model covering all 400 German districts, data on property prices, demographics, incomes and the labour market were combined. In the most exposed regions, including Erzgebirgskreis, Vulkaneifel and Kronach, real property prices are forecast to fall by nearly 20% by 2035. Other areas of eastern Germany, including Zwickau, are also in a particularly difficult situation. The authors emphasise that the greatest pressure occurs where population shrinkage is combined with a weak labour market and low economic attractiveness of the region. It is therefore no coincidence that regions with long-term depopulation are at the bottom of the ranking. At the other end are German metropolitan areas and their well-connected surroundings. Berlin, Hamburg and Frankfurt belong to the group of regions where housing demand is supported by employment growth and population inflow. However, the particularly favourable situation does not necessarily occur in the metropolises themselves, but also – and in some cases above all – in their surroundings. The IW forecast indicates that in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, some districts located outside large cities may also benefit from proximity to strong labour markets; in the strongest regions, forecast real price growth exceeds 2% per year. This is an important addition to the picture of the German market: we are not dealing solely with a division into “large cities” and “the provinces”, but above all with areas that are well or poorly connected with regional economic centres.

These experiences can be compared with the situation of Polish counties. At the most unfavourable end of the spectrum are currently areas where the forecast population decline over the horizon of one generation is very deep. Hajnówka County had 38.5 thousand residents in 2024, whereas according to Statistics Poland’s forecast only 25.7 thousand are expected to remain in 2050. This means a decline of around 33% over 25 years. It is also an area with a strongly advanced ageing process already in place – the average age of residents is around 47.5 years. Skarżysko County follows a similar trajectory: over the past two decades it has lost a significant part of its residents, and the forecast points to a further, very sharp decline. Among other areas at this unfavourable end of the spectrum, Hrubieszów County can be indicated; forecasts point to a population decline there by 2050 of around 33% compared with 2020, as well as in some other counties of eastern Poland. In Lubelskie Voivodeship, very unfavourable forecasts concern, among others, Włodawa County, Ryki County and the city of Zamość.

The scale of these changes is therefore comparable with the trajectories that occurred in Germany in regions considered to be particularly strongly affected by the process of population shrinkage. This does not, of course, mean that a -33% population change in Hajnówka County must translate into a -33% change in property prices. The German experience shows, however, that in a situation of long-term population shrinkage, especially when it is accompanied by ageing and weakness in the local labour market, declines in property values of a dozen or even several dozen percent are not a purely theoretical scenario. In the latest IW forecast for Germany referred to above, properties located in regions with the most unfavourable combination of factors are expected to lose almost one fifth of their value in real terms by 2035.

The other end of the Polish market can be viewed analogously. Kraków County had 303.6 thousand residents in 2024, and Statistics Poland forecasts an increase to 321.0 thousand in 2050, i.e. around 5.7% compared with the current level. Another example is Warsaw West County, where the population is expected to increase from 136.1 thousand in 2024 to around 140.3 thousand in 2050. These are also areas benefiting from proximity to strong economic centres – Kraków and Warsaw, respectively – and therefore, in terms of the demand mechanism, they more closely resemble German regions located in the sphere of influence of large metropolises than poorly connected shrinking regions.

If, therefore, German experience is treated as an empirical point of reference, Polish counties at the most unfavourable end of the demographic trajectory may in the future experience pressure on property values of a similar scale to that seen in the German regions most affected by depopulation. In the case of areas such as Hajnówka County or Hrubieszów County, a scenario cannot be ruled out in which a long-term decline in demand leads to a reduction in the value of the existing housing stock by a dozen percent, and in particularly unfavourable conditions even by several dozen percent. In turn, counties located in the zones of strong agglomerations, such as Kraków County or Warsaw West County, should be much less exposed to this type of demographic pressure. This is, of course, not a price forecast for specific Polish counties, but an analysis based on the analogy of the scale and direction of demographic processes observed earlier in the mature German market. Its significance lies primarily in showing the possible range of risk: from regions where population shrinkage and ageing may become one of the main factors reducing property values, to areas where the inflow of population and households will continue to support demand. Only translating these differences into the number of households, the housing stock and the future balance between demand and supply makes it possible to estimate how deep the scale of price changes may be in individual Polish counties.

 

The experience of European markets shows that demographics is not merely a distant backdrop to the future of the real estate market. In many regions, a process that initially seemed above all to be a statistical problem – fewer residents, more elderly people, fewer households – over time began to translate into real changes in property values, an increase in vacant dwellings, reduced investment and a gradual change in the functioning of entire local markets. The OECD, in its report entitled “Shrinking Smartly and Sustainably: Strategies for Action”^[4], points out that a self-reinforcing mechanism may arise in shrinking regions: a decline in demand and property values limits investment, worsens the quality of the housing stock and the attractiveness of the place, which in turn may encourage further outflow of residents. In this view, demographics is no longer just one of many factors affecting prices; instead, it may become a factor that changes the very structure of the local market in the long term. Demographics should therefore be treated as one of the fundamental factors of long-term real estate market risk – a specific risk that develops slowly and can be anticipated much earlier than most crises. Nevertheless, its consequences may be very difficult to reverse.

[1] https://www.bis.org/publications/working-paper-318-ageing-and-asset-prices

[2] https://www.bis.org/publications/working-paper-385-ageing-property-prices-and-money-demand

[3] https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/315057/1/10037_2024_Article_210.pdf

[4] https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/shrinking-smartly-and-sustainably_f91693e3-en.html

Just over a dozen years ago, the attractiveness of a property was determined primarily by its location, price and floor area. Today, selection criteria are much broader. Buyers are increasingly paying attention to quality of life, access to green areas, everyday comfort, opportunities for active leisure and solutions that support health and wellbeing. All these elements are part of the concept of wellbeing, which is becoming one of the most important trends shaping the contemporary real estate market.

Changing customer expectations mean that developers are increasingly designing projects not only as groups of residential buildings, but as comprehensive living spaces. The aim is to create an environment that has a positive impact on residents’ health, comfort and everyday experiences. Wellbeing is therefore becoming one of the indicators of development quality and an important element in building long-term value.

What is wellbeing?

Wellbeing means a state, in which a person feels good physically, mentally and socially. It includes not only health, but also a sense of security, comfort of living, the ability to rest, contact with nature and functioning in a friendly environment.

In the context of the real estate market, wellbeing means designing buildings and entire housing estates in a way that supports residents’ everyday lives. What matters is not only the apartments themselves, but also common areas, infrastructure and the surroundings of the development.

An increasing number of studies show that a properly designed residential environment helps reduce stress levels, improve health, increase physical activity and build social ties. It is therefore no surprise that wellbeing has become one of the main directions in the development of modern residential construction.

How is wellbeing changing the real estate market?

A dozen or so years ago, the standard was primarily functional apartments and parking spaces. Today, customer expectations are much higher. Buyers are increasingly paying attention to:

• proximity to parks and green areas,
• walking and cycling paths,
• playgrounds and recreational zones,
• spaces that foster resident integration,
• high air quality and adequate building ventilation,
• good daylight access in apartments,
• energy-efficient solutions that reduce operating costs,
• quiet surroundings and acoustic comfort,
• access to shops, schools, services and public transport.

Developers have begun investing in solutions that increase residents’ comfort. Green roofs, rain gardens, coworking zones, recreational areas and smart energy management systems are being created. Such solutions improve quality of life, increase the attractiveness of a development and enhance its market value.

Wellbeing in practice

The Polish residential market is increasingly following global trends. Although only a few years ago wellbeing-related solutions were associated mainly with the premium segment, they are now becoming standard in increasing number of developments.

One of the best-known examples is Miasteczko Wilanów in Warsaw. The district was designed in line with the idea of a resident-friendly city. Numerous cycle paths, green areas, urban squares and well-developed service infrastructure make it possible to meet most everyday needs within a short distance of one’s place of residence.

In new residential developments, solutions that support residents’ wellbeing are being incorporated. Projects include green courtyards, rain gardens, spaces for recreation and integration, extensive cycling infrastructure and electric vehicle charging stations. Attention is paid to adequate sunlight access in apartments, the quality of finishing materials and solutions that improve the energy efficiency of buildings. Certified building materials, rainwater retention systems and smart building management are gaining popularity. At the same time, housing estates are being designed to limit car traffic, so that the space between buildings can be used for greenery, recreation and friendly places to spend time.

Global examples show that wellbeing can form the foundation for the design of entire districts. One of the best-known projects is Lake Nona in Orlando, United States. It is a modern district designed with residents’ health in mind. It includes extensive walking and cycling paths, smart infrastructure, numerous green areas, as well as medical and educational facilities.

Kampung Admiralty in Singapore is also noteworthy. It is a multifunctional complex combining housing, medical services, retail and recreational spaces. The project was designed to support social activity and a healthy lifestyle among residents, particularly older people.

BedZED in the United Kingdom also remains one of the pioneering eco-neighbourhoods. The development uses renewable energy sources, water recovery systems, solutions that reduce CO₂ emissions and numerous common spaces that foster the integration of the local community.

Wellbeing as a new standard and value on the real estate market

Wellbeing is having an increasingly clear impact on the real estate market, becoming not only a response to residents’ changing needs, but also a factor affecting the value and attractiveness of developments. Projects offering a higher quality of life attract greater buyer interest, providing them with greater everyday comfort, better conditions for remote work, a higher level of safety and lower operating costs thanks to energy-efficient solutions.

From the perspective of developers, wellbeing is a way to build a competitive advantage and create developments that respond to customers’ growing expectations, while for institutional investors it may be one of the elements influencing the long-term potential of a property. In the coming years, the importance of these solutions will grow alongside the development of sustainable construction and new technologies. More greenery, smart building management systems, high energy efficiency, solutions improving air quality and spaces conducive to resident integration will become standard.

The concept of the 15-minute city will also remain an important direction, facilitating access to key services and reducing the need to use a car. As a result, within a few years wellbeing may cease to be a distinguishing feature of premium developments alone and become one of the basic standards of modern residential construction. Comfort of living, a healthy environment, access to greenery, energy efficiency and well-designed common areas will play an increasingly important role in property selection, influencing the decisions of residents and buyers, as well as the perceived value and long-term attractiveness of developments.

Polish drivers struggle every day to find somewhere to park their cars and their dissatisfaction with this situation is easy to see in the many comments they post on social media. There is no doubt that parking while running errands in the city is a challenge. The reason is most visible in Warsaw: for several years, the safety of pedestrians and cyclists has clearly been prioritised over driver comfort. This is reflected in the removal of parking spaces in favour of new cycle paths or the installation of bollards that prevent parking along pavements (this has even become a phenomenon known as “bollardosis”). The shortage of parking spaces exists not only in large urban centres, but also in county towns, although in the latter case it is often caused by the absence of paid parking zones. These inconveniences may mainly harm private entrepreneurs. A service unit without nearby parking loses motorised customers, and if they made up the majority of its customers, the business has to move to a new location, for example to a shopping centre, or ultimately close permanently.

A common parking-related problem in many cities, regardless of their size, is the constant delivery of numerous new residential developments. Anyone, who lives near new blocks of flats, does not own a parking space and has returned home by car on a Sunday evening, at least once has almost certainly faced a situation, when the nearest car park was completely full and it was necessary to look for a space in another car park, in another part of the estate. New residential developments are not, admittedly, the only culprit. In the past, underground garages were not built: multi-family housing from before the 1990s is characterised by a lack of internal parking spaces and only occasional external garages, while in the 1990s, and in smaller towns also in the first decade of the 21st century, blocks were most often built with just a few individual garages at ground level. In the past, however, no one anticipated how quickly new multi-family buildings would appear in the future.

According to data published by Statistics Poland (GUS), in the last several years, from 2020 onwards (in fact from 2019), there has not been a single year, in which fewer than 200 000 dwellings were completed across Poland. This is a large number, especially compared with 2015, when the number of such dwellings was much lower, at just under 150 000. The dynamic increase in the number of newly completed dwellings before 2020 can be seen even more clearly by going back another five years: in 2010, the number of new dwellings completed was only slightly lower, at around 135 000. It is worth adding that detached houses are also counted as dwellings in this statistic, so it covers the entire residential market. In theory, the development of residential construction in Poland should not be a factor in the parking crisis, because today the standard is to provide new parking spaces alongside multi-family housing projects, most often in the form of multi-space underground garages. However, if we take into account GUS data on newly registered passenger cars, the number of parking spaces accompanying new dwellings is not sufficient and is clearly lower than the number of new cars, because since 2019 the annual number of newly registered passenger cars has not fallen below 400 000. What is more, in 2019 and 2024 it exceeded 500 000, and in 2025 it reached 600 000. It is worth adding that these figures do not include newly registered used cars imported from abroad, so the increase in the number of cars is even greater.

The above comparison between the number of new dwellings and the number of new passenger cars would make more sense if we assumed that there are as many new parking spaces as new dwellings (flats and detached houses). It is known, however, that spatial planning instruments, and in particular local spatial development plans (MPZP), define the minimum required parking space ratios for new residential development, for example a minimum of 1.5 spaces per dwelling, which is a ratio often used for multi-family housing. Ratios may differ: the highest apply to detached housing and may amount to 2, while the lowest apply to central urban development and may even be below 1. If, therefore, 200 000 dwellings were completed in a given year, then with an average ratio of 1.5 at least 300 000 parking spaces were theoretically created, and the surplus of new cars becomes smaller, but it still exists. There is also the issue of parking spaces that have not been purchased and are not used. It can be assumed that most of these spaces are used thanks to a practice often applied by investors, namely imposing an obligation to purchase a flat together with a parking space. However, one should remember parking spaces whose purchase is not required and which are expensive, and which consequently remain unused. In addition, large cities have begun to apply lower ratios, a measure justified by good access to public transport.

The shortage of parking spaces is deepened to some extent by the possibility of bypassing local spatial development plans through the use of the special housing act, the so-called “Lex Developer”, which allows a residential project to be carried out on land designated for a purpose other than residential development. In theory, a new estate may take the place of a potential public car park with wider availability. In addition, in August 2025 the special act was amended so that it no longer imposes a parking space ratio and gives the municipal council greater freedom to determine the minimum number of spaces (previously the municipal council could only increase the ratio), which may reduce the availability of parking spaces in the case of some projects.

Park & Ride (P&R) car parks may be a solution to the parking problem in the centres of large cities. This is a compromise solution that combines the use of a car with travel by public transport, and such car parks are located at transport hubs. According to GUS data, there are places, where many such car parks are being built, for example Wroclaw, where there were as many as 36 in 2024 (for comparison, Warsaw had 17), and Cracow County, where their number increased from 5 in 2020 to 22 in 2024, but there are not many such places in Poland. In Warsaw itself, only one P&R car park was created in 2020-2024. The limited scale of implementation of this solution may be due to the target group of drivers being too small, namely mainly those commuting to a large city from smaller towns. The results of the September 2025 Warsaw Barometer survey indicate that as many as 71% of Warsaw residents had not used P&R in the three months preceding the survey, and in previous years this percentage was even higher. Everything therefore suggests that P&R car parks do not significantly relieve pressure on car parks in city centres. As regards new surface parking spaces built separately, outside residential developments, the negligible number of building permits for car parks across Poland may be worrying, even though a building permit is not required for all such car parks; among permits issued since 2020, only one can be found for the construction of a car park in Warsaw.

Is access to public transport good enough to improve the situation? An analysis of GUS data from the last several years shows, in addition to an increase in the number of new cars, an annual increase in the number of stops (bus and tram stops), and from 2023 a renewed rise in the number of newly registered buses. In Warsaw itself, the number of stops also increased, but this does not mean that the public transport network improved in every part of the city outside the reach of the metro. In fact, transport may fail to keep pace with the intensification of new residential development, as illustrated by the area on the border of Kamionek and Grochow or by Ursus. New metro lines are indeed planned in all these places, but only in the distant future. The same applies to Warsaw’s Chrzanow: the estate began to expand long before the extension of the second metro line started, and bus transport became insufficient for this part of the capital. Since 2024, the number of new buses has been around 2 000, although it is worth adding that in the 2010s annual numbers of new buses could significantly exceed 3 000. The most important statistic, however, is the number of passenger journeys, which is growing year by year. This may be influenced by the improved network of stops and a more modern bus fleet, but it should be noted that the growth observed since 2021 was preceded by a sharp decline in 2020, most likely caused by the outbreak of the pandemic, and only the 2024 figure approached the levels recorded in the previous decade. If, however, the number of passenger journeys is returning to that level at a time when the increase in the number of cars is higher than it was then, this indicates the growing popularity of public transport.

Summary

The shortage of parking spaces is undoubtedly worsening and is both the result of deliberate measures to restrict car traffic and of urban planning chaos caused by the growth in the number of new residential developments. If the aim of local authorities is to create “car-free cities”, they should consider reducing the costs associated with operating service units in city centres in order to compensate for the outflow of motorised customers, as well as creating paid parking zones in cities governed by city mayors. The figures do not suggest that Poles are about to suddenly give up buying cars, so it is worth considering the construction of multi-storey car parks. The development of public transport gives grounds for optimism, and this mode of transport can already be more convenient than a car in some cases, but there is still much room for improvement, especially in the capital. The public transport network should precede residential developments, as it once did in the case of Kabaty, so that it can attract passengers. In the largest cities, carsharing may be an alternative to owning a car, but only on condition that regular customers are rewarded through loyalty programmes, which are currently lacking. The solutions listed above are essential in order not to worsen the already poor parking situation in Polish cities and not to lead to a parking crisis.

Mateusz Palczewski
Specialist, GIS Analyst

For years, the attractiveness of property investment was determined primarily by location, building standard and access to financing. In the coming decades, however, another factor will become increasingly important: demographics. Poland is on the threshold of one of the largest demographic transformations in its history, and its consequences will be felt not only by the labour market and the pension system, but also by the entire property sector.

Forecasts prepared by Statistics Poland (GUS) in the publication “Population Projection for 2023-2060” indicate a lasting downward trend in population numbers and the progressive ageing of society. This means that, over the next several decades, both the structure of housing demand and the need for specific types of property will change.

According to the main scenario, Poland’s population will decline from approximately 37.7 million people in 2022 to approximately 30.4 million in 2060. This represents a population decrease of more than 7 million people. Even the most optimistic forecast variant assumes a fall in population to 34.8 million residents, while the pessimistic scenario projects a decline to only 26.7 million people. Regardless of the assumptions adopted, all forecast variants point to a systematic contraction of Poland’s population.

At the same time, the process of population ageing will continue. In the coming decades, the share of people aged 65 and over will increase significantly, while the number of children and young people will decline. As a result, older people will account for approx. one third of the population, which will translate into entirely new housing and investment needs.

One of the greatest challenges will also be the shrinking of the working-age population. According to forecasts, by 2060 the number of economically active people will decline by several dozen per cent. Consequently, the demographic dependency ratio will increase significantly. Whereas in 2022 there were around 70 persons of non-working age for every 100 persons of working age, under the main scenario the number of persons above working age will reach approx. 105 by 2060. This means that the number of people supporting the economic system will gradually decrease, while the number of people requiring social support will rise.

Demographic changes will also be affected by a decline in the number of births. Statistics Poland forecasts a further decrease in the number of women of reproductive age – from approximately 8.7 million in 2022 to 4.8 million – 6.3 million in 2060, depending on the scenario adopted. This means that the low number of births will persist and depopulation processes will deepen.

FIGURE 1. AGE PYRAMID OF THE POPULATION (THOUSANDS) IN 2022 AND IN 2060 UNDER THREE FORECAST SCENARIOS

source: Statistics Poland (GUS), Population Projection for 2023-2060.

For the property market, these data are of fundamental importance. While until recently, the main challenge was to meet growing housing demand, in the future the adaptation of the offer to the changing structure of society will become increasingly important. The growing number of seniors, the rising share of single-person households and continuing migration to the largest urban centres will mean that not all locations will develop at the same pace. As a result, demographics will become one of the key factors influencing property values. This does not mean, however, that the entire property market is facing a slowdown. These changes will affect individual regions in very different ways, leading to increasing differentiation between local housing markets.

A Two-Speed Poland

Poland is gradually dividing into two different worlds: dynamically developing metropolitan areas and towns and municipalities struggling with population outflow. This phenomenon is increasingly referred to as a “two-speed Poland”. Demographic forecasts indicate that Poland’s population will steadily decline, but this process will not be uniform. Most municipalities and smaller towns will record a decline in population, while the largest agglomerations will continue to attract new residents thanks to attractive labour markets, renowned universities and well-developed infrastructure. As a result, the division between regions that are developing and those gradually losing their demographic potential is becoming increasingly clear.

The largest urban centres, such as Warsaw, Krakow, Wroclaw and Gdansk, will remain the main beneficiaries of internal migration, and young people will continue to move to large cities in search of better jobs, education and broader professional development opportunities. For the property market, this means sustained demand for homes in well-connected locations, units intended for rental, properties in suburban zones and modern residential developments. This means that the largest agglomerations are likely to maintain high price levels thanks to the inflow of new residents, students and employees from abroad.

The situation may look completely different in many smaller towns and municipalities, where the outflow of young residents, a low birth rate and the progressive ageing of society may lead to a gradual weakening of demand for property. In some locations, the number of available homes may exceed the number of potential buyers, translating into slower price growth, longer sale periods, a larger number of vacant dwellings and a decline in investment attractiveness. In many smaller localities and on the outskirts of large cities, downward pressure on prices can be expected as a result of a declining population, an ageing society and an increased supply of homes entering the secondary market. In the locations most affected by depopulation, some properties may become difficult to sell.

New Directions of Demand in the Property Market

A decline in population does not necessarily have to lead automatically to a fall in demand for property. The changing structure of households plays a key role.

More and more people live alone or form two-person households. At the same time, the model of multi-generational living is becoming increasingly rare. As a result, the number of homes needed may remain high despite a declining population. This trend is already influencing developers’ strategies, as they increasingly design smaller, more functional flats that meet the needs of singles, young couples and older people.

Seniors account for an increasingly large share of society, which will translate into growing demand for homes adapted to their needs. Units without architectural barriers, equipped with lifts and providing easy access to medical care will attract increasing interest; with limited supply, this may lead to growth in their value and rental costs. The growing importance of the so-called silver market will influence both the direction of new investments and the modernisation of existing housing stock.

The greatest interest will be in energy-efficient properties that are well connected and located close to public services and healthcare. The institutional rental sector may also play an increasingly important role, because high purchase prices for homes and the limited creditworthiness of some households will mean that more people use long-term rental. This will particularly apply to singles, young workers and seniors seeking smaller, functional flats in attractive locations.

Summary

Demographic changes will affect not only the location of investments, but also the structure of demand for property. Homes intended for one- and two-person households, units adapted to the needs of seniors, multifunctional buildings providing easy access to services, and properties located near public transport and healthcare facilities will become increasingly important. The ageing of society will also increase demand for care, rehabilitation and medical facilities. This means that the property market will have to move away from a model focused primarily on quantity and concentrate increasingly on quality and on aligning the offer with residents’ actual needs. The growing importance of the so-called silver economy will mean that architecture and spatial planning will have to take into account the needs of an ageing society. At the same time, traditional home ownership will cease to be the only form of ensuring housing stability, and various rental models may play a greater role. For investors, this means the need to look at the market from a new perspective. Alongside housing prices, interest rates and rental yields, the question of whether a given location will still attract residents in 15-20 years will become increasingly important. Demographic potential itself may become one of the key factors influencing property values, and investment success will increasingly be determined not only by the standard of the building and the attractiveness of the location, but also by the long-term development prospects of the city or region. Demography is no longer merely a statistic; it is becoming one of the most important factors shaping the future of the Polish property market.

Land utility connections are one of the most important factors affecting the value of land property and the possibility of developing it. Access to electricity, gas, water, sewerage or telecommunications networks increases the attractiveness of a plot and significantly facilitates the implementation of an investment project.

However, the presence of technical infrastructure does not always mean benefits only. Transmission facilities run through many properties and determine how plots can be developed. Some such transmission facilities were built several decades ago, often without an agreement with the landowner. Until recently, owners were unable to enforce their rights. Transmission companies maintained that they could use land by acquisitive prescription, which was supported by court rulings. This is now changing in many respects.

What is a transmission easement?

A transmission easement is a limited property right regulated in Articles 305¹-305⁴ of the Civil Code. It is established for the benefit of a transmission company in order to ensure the possibility of using another person’s real estate to the extent necessary for the construction, operation, maintenance, modernisation and repair of transmission facilities.

Transmission facilities include primarily:

• power lines,
• gas pipelines,
• water supply systems,
• sewerage systems,
• district heating networks,
• telecommunications networks.

In practice, this means that the property owner must tolerate the existence of the infrastructure and allow the company access to the facilities in order to carry out necessary operational work or remedy failures.

Impact of a transmission easement on the possibility of developing a plot

The presence of transmission facilities may have a significant impact on how real estate is developed. Depending on the type of infrastructure, relevant protection zones or technical corridors apply, within which there may be restrictions on the location of buildings, the planting of tall trees, the carrying out of deep excavations or the performance of works that could damage the facilities. This means that even an attractively located and well-serviced plot may not be fully used in accordance with the investor’s intentions.

Remuneration for establishing a transmission easement

If a company plans to place new transmission facilities on private land, the owner may demand that a transmission easement must be established for appropriate remuneration.

When determining the amount of remuneration, factors taken into account include the area of the property subject to the restriction, the type of transmission facilities and the impact of the facilities on the value of the property. Most often, the remuneration is paid as a lump sum, although the parties may also agree on periodic payments.

 

Acquisitive prescription as the most common argument of transmission companies

In practice, many transmission facilities were built before the provisions on transmission easements entered into force. For a long time, transmission companies, instead of entering into agreements with landowners, assumed that they could use real estate by acquisitive prescription.

Before Articles 305¹-305⁴, in force since 3 August 2008, were introduced into the Civil Code, the case law of the Supreme Court accepted the possibility of acquiring by acquisitive prescription a so-called land easement corresponding in content to a transmission easement. This allowed the period of use of the real estate before 3 August 2008 to be added to the period required for acquisitive prescription. As a result, many court cases brought by property owners for the establishment of a transmission easement for remuneration were dismissed.

A landmark judgment of the Constitutional Tribunal and a decision of the Supreme Court

The breakthrough came with the judgment of the Constitutional Tribunal of 2 December 2025 (P 10/16). The Tribunal held that the provisions of the Civil Code, interpreted in a manner allowing the acquisition before 3 August 2008, by acquisitive prescription, of a land easement corresponding in content to a transmission easement, are inconsistent with the Constitution of the Republic of Poland.

The significance of the Tribunal’s judgment was subsequently confirmed by the Supreme Court in its decision of 19 March 2026 (II CSKP 1045/24). The Supreme Court stated that before the provisions on transmission easements entered into force, the limitation period for acquiring this right by acquisitive prescription could not have started to run. Therefore, it is not permissible to include the period of use of the real estate prior to 3 August 2008 in the period required for the acquisitive prescription of a transmission easement.

In the Court’s opinion, the earlier interpretation led to the acceptance of the possibility of acquiring by prescription a right which, at the time possession was exercised, did not yet exist in the Polish legal system.

What do the new rulings mean for property owners?

The new line of case law may be of considerable importance to owners of plots crossed by power lines, gas pipelines, water supply systems, sewerage systems or telecommunications networks. For many years, transmission companies successfully relied on acquisitive prescription, which often prevented owners from obtaining remuneration for the establishment of a transmission easement. Following the judgment of the Constitutional Tribunal and the decision of the Supreme Court, the possibility of successfully raising such an objection has been significantly limited. This does not, however, mean that acquisitive prescription is completely excluded. It may still occur, but the running of the relevant period must be assessed taking into account the provisions in force from 3 August 2008 and the circumstances of the specific case.

What should a plot owner do?

If transmission facilities run through the property, it is worth:

• checking the contents of the land and mortgage register,
• analysing the surveying and design documentation,
• establishing the date on which the facilities were built,
• verifying the legal basis for the transmission company’s use of the property,
• assessing whether the company can in fact successfully rely on acquisitive prescription,
• considering pursuing remuneration for the establishment of a transmission easement or other claims arising from non-contractual use of the property.

Summary

Land utility connections undoubtedly increase the value and utility of a plot, but the presence of transmission facilities may at the same time lead to significant restrictions on ownership rights. Therefore, before purchasing real estate, and also before bringing claims against a transmission company, it is worth carefully analysing the legal status of the land.

The judgment of the Constitutional Tribunal and the decision of the Supreme Court mark a change in the interpretation of the provisions on the acquisitive prescription of transmission easements. These rulings strengthen the protection of ownership rights and may significantly increase the chances of property owners obtaining remuneration for the use of their land by transmission companies. At the same time, they signal a change in a long-standing judicial practice in which the plea of acquisitive prescription was the main line of defence for transmission companies.

Poland’s residential market is undergoing a profound structural transformation. Just a few years ago, institutional rental housing (PRS) and private student accommodation (PBSA) were expected to rapidly dominate the landscape of Poland’s largest metropolitan areas, while foreign funds would build at a race pace. At the beginning of 2026, however, it is clear that both sectors are developing differently than assumed. Instead of a sudden boom, we are observing stable, long-term growth based on carefully calculated investments and the gradual professionalization of the market.

PRS approaches the 30k apartment milestone

According to the latest CBRE data, at the end of the first quarter of 2026 the stock of apartments operating in the PRS model in Poland reached 29 900 units. This represents a tenfold increase compared with 2018. Just a few years ago, the PRS market in Poland was a marginal segment; today it has become a permanent part of the investment landscape in the largest cities. The year 2025 alone was record-breaking in terms of new supply: nearly 6 000 apartments across 26 projects were delivered, and in the first three months of 2026 the market expanded by a further 1 300 units. Moreover, approx. 4 200 apartments are planned for completion by the end of 2026, while projects at the preparation stage comprise 18 000 units.

CHART 1: PRS STOCK (2013-2027)

source: “Living: primary market in Warsaw and PRS in Poland, Q1 2026”, CBRE

Despite this strong momentum, the PRS sector remains small in relation to the overall residential market. According to Statistics Poland (GUS), Poland’s total housing stock exceeds 16 million units, while the private rental market is estimated at approx. 1.9 million apartments. This means that apartments owned by institutional funds account for only a fraction of a percent of the national stock (0.2%) and less than 2% of all rental apartments. Even in Warsaw, which remains the undisputed leader in institutional investment, the share of PRS in the market structure fluctuates around only 1%. The dominance of the individual sector is illustrated by the fact that the number of taxpayers declaring income from private rental exceeded 1.1 million in 2024 (up by 5.6% year on year).

The current scale of the PRS sector does not confirm concerns about a significant impact of funds on the ownership structure of apartments or on price levels across the market as a whole. Institutional rental is not a competitor to the dominant private rental market, but rather its professional complement. Most rental apartments remain in the hands of individual owners (as much as 98% of the market), while PRS operators focus on offering a standardized product, professional management and greater predictability for tenants.

Market leaders and major transactions

Poland’s PRS sector remains the domain of institutional capital, primarily foreign capital. At the beginning of 2026, the largest commercial operator was still the Resi4Rent platform, with a portfolio of approx. 6 800 apartments. The next positions were held by Vantage Rent (3,7k units) and LifeSpot (2.5k units). Polish capital, in turn, is represented mainly by the state-owned PFRN: taking into account the combined stock of the two managed funds (FMnW and FMdR), this entity is the largest institutional investor in the country, with a portfolio exceeding 7.2k units.

The market has just seen a historic reshuffle in the leader position. According to the official press release issued by Griffin Capital Partners in May 2026, the major transaction between Resi4Rent and the TAG Group (owner of Vantage Development) entered the finalization phase. This record transaction, worth approx. PLN 2.4 billion and covering 18 special-purpose companies with a pool of more than 5.3k units, ultimately changes the balance of power in Poland’s PRS sector after months of waiting for regulatory decisions.

It is worth noting that the total transaction volume in the living sector[1] in 2025 closed at EUR 629 million (representing a spectacular increase of 301% year on year). However, the structure of the investment market shows that activity in fact remains relatively limited. The vast majority of the transaction volume in the living sector in 2025 was generated by this single R4R-TAG transaction. This means that investors continue to approach new projects selectively, preferring forward-funding and forward-purchase investments.

Rental geography and the new rent reality

Although the rental sector is growing rapidly, its stock is still clearly concentrated within the largest metropolitan areas, with particular emphasis on Warsaw, Wroclaw and Cracow. The capital remains the clear leader, accounting for more than one-third of all institutional apartments in Poland. The table below clearly illustrates the distance separating Warsaw from regional markets.

TABLE 1: PRS STOCK BY CITY

City	Stock of completed apartments (in operation)	Percentage share of total stock	Investment pipeline (in preparation)
Warsaw	10.8 thousand	36.1%	7.1 thousand
Wroclaw	5.4 thousand	18.1%	1.0 thousand
Cracow	5.0 thousand	16.7%	2.5 thousand

source: “Living: primary market in Warsaw and PRS in Poland, Q1 2026”, CBRE

A fairly uniform PRS product model has already developed in the largest cities. Apartments of around 40 sqm dominate, and the most popular unit type is the one-bedroom apartment (a separate bedroom and a living room with kitchenette), accounting for approx. 50% of the offer. Studios are in second place, accounting for approx. 40%. The average project comprises approx. 200 apartments, which enables economies of scale in building management and maintenance.

After the period of sharp increases observed in 2022-2024, the market has entered a phase of rent stabilization. In PRS projects, rates are generally higher than in private rental, but the difference results from location, finish standard, available services and professional management.

In the largest cities, rents in institutional projects currently range from approx. PLN 70/sqm in Lodz to more than PLN 100/sqm in Warsaw. In practice, this means that the monthly rent for a studio apartment most often ranges from PLN 2 500 to more than PLN 4 000, while one-bedroom units usually reach between PLN 3 000 and PLN 5 000 per month, depending on the location and standard of the project. Other major regional markets, such as Cracow, Wroclaw, Poznan and the Tri-City, remain stable in the range between Lodz and Warsaw levels.

The growing supply of apartments has also made the market more competitive. In some cities, the pace of rent growth has slowed markedly and selected locations have even recorded small rate corrections.

PBSA – boom in modern student accommodation

Alongside the residential rental market, the private student accommodation sector (PBSA) is developing extremely dynamically. For years this segment was treated as a market curiosity; today it is a fully fledged and one of the most sought-after targets for international capital. A strong example of this is the enormous financing secured at the end of 2025, when Student Depot obtained as much as PLN 770 million from a consortium of PKO BP and ING for portfolio refinancing and the construction of new facilities. CBRE and Savills data show the vast scale of planned investments.

TABLE 1: PBSA SECTOR STOCK

Status of PBSA projects in Poland	Number of beds
Existing stock (completed)	13 200
Under construction and active preparation	11 800
Total market potential in the coming years	25 000

source: own analysis based on CBRE and Savills data

The drivers of private student accommodation remain demographic and structural factors, above all the enormous supply gap. Public student halls have struggled with underfunding for years, offering an outdated standard, while their number is drastically insufficient relative to the hundreds of thousands of students in the largest academic centres. Another strong driver is the inflow of international students, for whom a higher standard of accommodation in a single room is an absolute basic expectation. Today’s generation of students is redefining convenience, focusing on flexibility, access to modern technologies and the ability to build community through extensive common areas. The all-inclusive fee model, covering utilities and high-speed Internet in a single monthly charge, also remains an important advantage.

What Is Holding Investors Back from Sprinting? Key Barriers to Market Development

Since demand for professional rental remains high and the living sector attracts the attention of international capital, a natural question arises: why is the market not developing even faster? The answer lies in a series of structural barriers that mean investors increasingly choose a strategy of gradual growth rather than aggressive expansion.

1. High land prices and competition from the for-sale market

The most important obstacle remains access to attractive investment land. In the largest Polish cities, prices of development plots have risen in recent years to levels that are often difficult to economically justify from the perspective of rental projects.

PRS funds build a business model based on generating rental income over many years. This means that every investment must meet rigorous profitability criteria. Meanwhile, developers carrying out traditional build-to-sell residential projects for individual clients are often willing to pay more for land because they recover the invested capital much faster.

The share of land costs in the final apartment price in the largest agglomerations has already approached 20-25%, which significantly limits the negotiating room of PRS funds. Large-scale bulk purchases are difficult when the retail market is breaking records: in Warsaw alone, more than 4 200 apartments were sold individually in Q1 2026, and the average asking price reached a record level of approx. PLN 19 000/sqm. Such an absorptive and expensive retail market effectively hinders funds from negotiating satisfactory rates.

2. Limited number of projects matching funds’ requirements

The second challenge is the shortage of ready products and consolidated apartment portfolios. Most funds prefer to purchase large packages covering entire buildings or estates, which allow them to manage assets efficiently and reduce operating costs. Meanwhile, the supply of such projects from developers in Poland is very limited.

Poland’s residential market was built primarily with retail sales in mind. As a result, many projects already have a fragmented ownership structure at the implementation stage, which makes their subsequent use in the PRS model more difficult.

This situation means that investors are increasingly becoming involved in forward projects, financing developments while they are still under construction. This makes it possible to secure housing supply, but at the same time increases investment risk and extends the waiting period before target revenues are achieved.

3. Lower profitability than in the classic development model

Although the PRS sector is perceived as promising, its profitability does not always exceed that of traditional residential projects intended for sale.

During periods of strong apartment price growth, developers can achieve higher margins by selling units to individual buyers. For many companies, cooperation with a fund therefore means giving up part of the potential profit in exchange for greater predictability and transaction security.

The market has already seen cases of some investors changing their strategy. Some apartments originally intended for rental were redirected to the for-sale market when financial analysis indicated more favourable conditions for such a solution. This shows that PRS still competes for capital with the traditional development market and does not function entirely independently of it.

4. Regulatory and tax uncertainty

One of the risk factors most frequently highlighted by investors remains the regulatory environment. Institutional capital prefers stability and predictability, while in recent years Poland’s residential market has operated under conditions of frequent legislative changes.

Doubts concern, among other things, VAT settlements, interpretations of provisions related to institutional rental and the rules for real estate taxation. Investors also point to the absence of a long-term state housing policy that would make it possible to anticipate the direction of regulatory changes over a horizon of more than a dozen years.

The reform of the spatial planning system remains an additional challenge. Delays in the adoption of general plans by municipalities may lead to longer administrative procedures and, in some locations, limit the possibility of launching new projects.

Another source of uncertainty is the public debate around proposals to tax vacant units, introduce a cadastral tax or change the rules governing collective residence buildings.

5. Rising costs of completing projects

Investor decisions are also affected by rising construction costs. In addition to higher prices of materials and contractor services, new technical and environmental requirements imposed on residential buildings are important.

Growing expectations regarding energy efficiency, accessibility for people with disabilities and ESG standards increase investment outlays, while at the same time becoming a necessary element of modern projects. For the largest funds, this is not an insurmountable barrier, but it affects profitability and lengthens the payback period.

What’s next for the living sector?

Despite these limitations, investors are not withdrawing from the market. On the contrary, most sector participants agree that fundamental demand drivers remain exceptionally strong, which allows the market outlook to be viewed with moderate optimism.

The future of the PRS and PBSA sectors in Poland is now determined primarily by demand-side factors. The market paradox is that most barriers limiting the development of new supply occur in parallel with persistently very strong demand for rental.

Rising apartment prices, the high cost of financing real estate purchases and limited access to mortgage loans mean that, for an increasing group of households, owning a home is becoming a goal postponed over time. At the same time, growing occupational mobility and changing lifestyles mean that rental is ceasing to be a temporary solution and is increasingly becoming a conscious choice for many years.

This is particularly visible among younger generations. For many people, buying their own apartment around the age of 30 has ceased to be a natural life stage and has become a challenge requiring a high down payment and appropriate creditworthiness. As a result, the group of people referred to as “renters by necessity” is growing; they expect from the market not only access to a unit, but also stability, predictability and professional service. Transparent rental terms, a high standard of apartments and security, which the fragmented private rental market does not always provide, are gaining increasing importance.

These are exactly the needs that the PRS sector is designed to address, offering a product closer to the standards that have operated for years in mature Western European markets. The PBSA sector, in turn, benefits from similar demographic trends and students’ growing expectations regarding accommodation quality.

Both PRS and PBSA have now entered a maturation phase. Investors are increasingly less focused on rapid growth at any cost and more often on operational efficiency, asset quality and long-term profitability. The growing mobility of society, the concentration of the population in the largest agglomerations and limited access to home ownership will continue to support the development of the living market.

Everything indicates that the coming years will bring further growth in both segments, although it will be gradual, more predictable and based on solid economic foundations to a greater extent than assumed just a few years ago. The year 2026 can therefore be regarded as the moment of transition from a phase of dynamic expectations to a stage of mature development. Poland’s living market has not abandoned its growth ambitions – it has simply traded a sprint for a marathon.

Agnieszka Pilcicka
Senior Real Estate Market Analyst

[1] The living sector is a commercial real estate segment dedicated to meeting residential and living needs. It is focused on institutional rental and professionally managed assets, providing investors with stable, long-term revenue streams.

When buying a house on the primary market, many buyers focus primarily on the price per square metre. In practice, however, this is only one of many factors affecting the actual value of the property. In case of single-family houses, the scope of works completed by the developer or private investor, as well as the standard of the building, are of key importance.

Analysis of offers for single-family houses

In order to present the diversity of offers on the market for new single-family houses, an analysis was carried out using the city of Radom as an example, where both developers and private investors operate, carrying out small projects usually comprising 2-3 houses. The analysis used offers available on the otodom.pl portal in the primary market segment.

The largest share of the analysed offers relates to houses in developer standard – approximately 63% of all listings. This means that most properties are not delivered fully finished and require further arrangement works on the buyer’s side. More than one third of the market, on the other hand, concerns unfinished houses in shell condition, which require even greater financial and organisational outlays. This indicates a clear trend of shifting part of the investment process to the buyer.

CHART 1. FINISHING STANDARD OF HOUSES FOR SALE ON THE PRIMARY MARKET IN RADOM

source: own study based on data from otodohttps://amron.pl/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/260618_wykres1En-300×257.jpgm.pl portal

The analysis of building types shows that the market is dominated by semi-detached and terraced houses. Semi-detached houses account for 53% of offers, while terraced houses account for 37%. Detached houses are a clear minority and represent only approx. 10% of the market. These are most often individual projects carried out by private individuals. Such structure points to the limited availability of building plots and to investors’ efforts to maximise the use of space. As a result, the market is gradually moving away from classic single-family housing towards more compact residential forms.

CHART 2. TYPES OF BUILDINGS FOR SALE ON THE PRIMARY MARKET FOR SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSES IN RADOM

source: own study based on data from otodom.pl portal

In terms of the installed systems, conventional solutions are clearly dominant. Gas installation is present in 52.63% of houses for sale, making it the most commonly used source of heating. Heat pumps appear in 26.32% of offers, which indicates the growing, although still moderate, popularity of ecological technologies. Mechanical ventilation with heat recovery is present in only 5.26% of buildings available for sale. These data show that the market is only gradually adapting modern, energy-efficient technologies, while still relying largely on traditional solutions.

TABLE 1. INSTALLATIONS USED IN SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSES OFFERED FOR SALE ON THE PRIMARY MARKET IN RADOM

TYPE OF INSTALLATION	YES	NO	CONNECTION OPTION
heat pump	26.32%	68.42%	5.26%
gas installation	52.63%	47.37%	0.00%
mechanical ventilation with heat recovery	5.26%	89.47%	5.26%

source: own study based on data from otodom.pl portal

In terms of facades, most buildings are at an advanced stage of construction. All houses in developer standard already have a completed facade. In total, nearly 79% of the analysed properties have a facade completed in full or in part, which confirms that the projects are largely advanced in terms of external finishing.

TABLE 2 EXTERNAL FACADE FINISHING IN HOUSES OFFERED FOR SALE ON THE PRIMARY MARKET IN RADOM BY BUILDING FINISHING STANDARD

FINISHING STANDARD	FACADE COMPLETED	FACADE TO BE COMPLETED	IN TOTAL
developer standard	63.16%	0.00%	63.16%
open shell condition	5.26%	5.26%	10.53%
closed shell condition	10.53%	15.79%	26.32%
Total	78.95%	21.05%	100.00%

source: own study based on data from otodom.pl portal

Only approx. 42% of properties for sale have a fully developed plot. Another 36.84% require further works, while 15.79% are developed only partially. This means that most buyers must take into account additional costs related to finishing the surroundings of the house, such as fencing, driveways or garden arrangement.

CHART 3. PLOT DEVELOPMENT IN OFFERS FOR THE SALE OF SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSES ON THE PRIMARY MARKET IN RADOM

source: own study based on data from otodom.pl portal

What is “developer standard”?

In Poland, the term “developer standard” has no uniform legal definition. This means that each developer may define its scope in a slightly different way. In case of apartments, the differences are often relatively small, but in case of single-family houses the discrepancies can be significant.

The scope of what is included in the purchase price has a direct impact on the total cost of bringing the property to a condition suitable for occupation. Therefore, before making a decision, it is worth carefully analysing the information prospectus, technical specification and the provisions of the development agreement.

 A house in shell condition – how much does the finishing cost?

There are many offers on the market for the sale of houses in shell condition. In such cases, the purchase price often does not include a significant part of the works necessary to make the property habitable.

Bringing a house from shell condition to developer standard may cost an additional approximately from PLN 150 thousand to 300 thousand, depending on the size of the building, the materials used and the standard of workmanship. Turnkey finishing involves even higher costs. For this reason, an apparently lower purchase price does not always mean a more profitable investment.

How to assess the finishing standard of a house?

A reliable assessment of the property’s standard requires an analysis of the technical documentation and photographs of the specific building. The description in the listing alone usually does not provide sufficient information. Therefore, before purchase, it is necessary to view the property in person. It is also worth considering the assistance of a specialist, who is familiar with building standards and can assess the quality of workmanship.

During the analysis, attention should be paid to the quality of window and door joinery, the type of heating and the thickness and quality of thermal insulation. The quality of the facade, plasterwork and floor screeds is also important, as is the preparation of installations for modern solutions such as mechanical ventilation with heat recovery, photovoltaics or air conditioning. The roofing materials, the functionality of the room layout and the size and development of the plot are also of considerable importance. In semi-detached and terraced housing, common areas should also be assessed, as they affect the comfort of living and future maintenance costs.

The purchase price is not everything

Many buyers compare offers solely through the prism of the price per square metre. However, such an approach may lead to incorrect assumptions. Two houses of similar size may differ significantly in operating costs, comfort of use and expenses incurred after purchase.

When assessing an offer, the plot size, type of heating and access to the sewerage system should be taken into account first, because these factors have a direct impact on the costs of using the property. The quality of the access road, the actual standard of workmanship of the building and the actual scope of works covered by the developer standard are also important.

In practice, it also happens that photos and descriptions in listings do not show all the imperfections of a property. Therefore, before purchase, it is worth personally verifying the condition of utilities, the quality of infrastructure and the technical documentation.

Summary

The analysis of the single-family housing market in Radom indicates several important trends that are also visible in other large cities in Poland. The dominant investment model is based on the sale of buildings in developer standard, which require further finishing by the buyer. The market is also characterised by a high intensity of development – semi-detached and terraced houses prevail, while detached houses account for a small share of the market.

There is also a gradual development of energy-efficient technologies, such as heat pumps and mechanical ventilation with heat recovery, although they still remain niche solutions. An important element is also the fact that a significant part of investments does not include full development of the plot, which increases the total cost of purchase.

Buying a house is much more than comparing the price per square metre. The scope of works completed by the developer, the quality of materials and the costs that the buyer will incur after purchase are of key importance. A detailed analysis of the developer standard helps to avoid wrong decisions and to better estimate the actual cost of the investment. Before signing an agreement, it is worth thoroughly checking the technical specification and investment documentation, as well as personally verifying the condition of the property. These are the elements that most strongly determine the profitability of the purchase in the long term.

Agnieszka Zamkowska
Real Estate Market Analyst

For years, one of the most important measures of location’s attractiveness in Warsaw was its distance from the centre. Proximity to Śródmieście meant easier access to work, services, culture and public transport and therefore constituted an important issue when purchasing or renting a property. However, the results of the Warsaw Traffic Study 2025 show that the everyday mobility of residents of the capital and the metropolitan area less and less resemble a model based on a single dominant centre. Main driver of change is growing importance of non-central districts resulting from remote and hybrid work, local services and trips made for purposes other than the traditional commute to and back from work.

This change has significant consequences for the housing market. The attractiveness of a location increasingly depends not only on how quickly one can get to the centre, but also on whether schools, shops, services, green areas, public transport and places of everyday activity are located in the immediate surroundings. In other words, the question “How far is it from the city centre?” is more and more often replaced by “Is it possible to live comfortably here on a daily basis?”. WBR 2025 is not a study of housing prices, but it shows how residents actually use the city: where they travel, by what means of transport, for what purposes and how dependent they are on cars or public transport. WBR 2025 provides data that make it possible to look at Warsaw not only as a transport system, but also as a changing map of housing preferences.

WBR distinguishes three areas: the centre of Warsaw, Warsaw outside the centre and the metropolitan zone. Translated into the real estate market: different advantages characterise an apartment in the centre has, well-connected areas outside the centre or the suburban zone, where a lower price may be offset by higher transport costs and dependence on the car.

source: Warsaw Traffic Study 2025, summary presentation, capital city of Warsaw [https://um.warszawa.pl/documents/39703/62400386/WBR+Prezentacja+-04.15+FINAL.pptx/849bf442-0644-0264-c92a-c807cdeb8bec?t=1776690139472]

The first of these areas, namely the centre of Warsaw, continues to be an area with exceptionally high accessibility of transport and services. The location bonus of the centre therefore results not only from the prestige of the address, but from real access to many functions within a short time. However, WBR shows that its role in residents’ everyday mobility is no longer as clear-cut as in the model of a strongly monocentric city. The centre remains an important travel destination, but it is increasingly competing with other areas of the city, where places of work, education, retail, services and recreation are concentrated. For the housing market, this means that the ‘centrality’ of a location does not have to be understood solely as physical proximity to Śródmieście. Proximity to a local district centre, a metro station, a tram hub, agglomeration rail or well-developed service infrastructure may also be increasingly important. WBR 2025 points to the growing polycentricity of Warsaw and the development of local services as one of the key changes affecting residents’ transport behaviour.

The second area concerns Warsaw outside the strict centre, where the centre of gravity of residents’ everyday functioning is shifting increasingly clearly. This does not mean that the centre is losing importance, but that some activities, which previously required travelling to Śródmieście, can now be carried out locally – in the district or in its immediate surroundings. This is supported by the development of local services, the growing polycentricity of the city and the spread of remote and hybrid work. According to the presentation, 23% of working Varsovians work remotely or in a hybrid model, which reduces the number of regular commutes to the workplace and changes the rhythm of using the city. As a result, districts such as Mokotów, Wola, Wilanów and Białołęka are ceasing to function solely as residential back-office areas for the centre and are increasingly becoming independent areas of work, shopping, education and recreation. From the perspective of the housing market, this means that the attractiveness of locations outside the centre depends not only on travel time to Śródmieście, but also on whether a given district allows residents to meet their everyday needs conveniently on site.

From the point of view of apartment buyers, this may strengthen the attractiveness of locations that only a few years ago were assessed mainly through the prism of travel time to the centre. If the daily commute to the office does not take place five times a week, other property features become more important: the size of the apartment, the possibility of arranging a workspace, access to greenery, schools, kindergartens and local services, as well as the quality of the nearest public space. In practice, this may mean an increase in the importance of housing estates and districts that offer not only an apartment, but also a full environment for everyday life. A housing estate located farther from the centre, but next to a metro station or in a well-equipped district, may offer higher everyday utility than a location closer to Śródmieście, but worse served locally.

The third area covers the metropolitan zone, where dependence on the car is clearly greater than in the central parts of Warsaw. WBR shows that cars dominate trips within the metropolitan zone, while the share of public transport is significantly lower than in journeys leading to the centre of Warsaw. This is particularly important for the housing market because the lower purchase price of an apartment or house outside Warsaw may be partly offset by higher costs of everyday mobility: the need to own one or two cars, fuel costs, parking costs, commuting time and greater exposure to traffic congestion.

This does not mean that the suburban zone is losing its attractiveness. On the contrary – demographic and housing data indicate the further development of the Warsaw metropolis. WBR shows an increase in the number of residents both in Warsaw and in municipalities near Warsaw, with growth outside Warsaw being proportionally higher. In addition, an increase in traffic volumes on the Warsaw cordon was also recorded: from approx. 0.96 million vehicles in 2015 to approx. 1.7 million in 2025. This means that demand for housing outside the city remains strong, but its durability will increasingly depend on the quality of transport links with Warsaw and on the development of local services in the municipalities of the metropolis.

In this entire context, locations well connected by rail transport become particularly important. Access to rail, metro or tram services may be one of the factors limiting the negative effects of distance from the centre. In case of some suburban locations, it may be public transport that determines whether the lower property price actually translates into a higher quality of life, or merely into replacing the cost of housing with the cost of daily commuting.

WBR 2025 shows that Warsaw’s housing market should be analysed not only through the prism of prices per square metre, but also from the perspective of everyday mobility. Women and men living in Warsaw now travel more often within their own district and less often in relation to the city centre than in 2015. A “well-located” apartment is increasingly not only an apartment close to the centre, but an apartment close to work, school, services, greenery and efficient transport. In an increasingly polycentric city, those locations gain an advantage that make it possible to reduce the number of necessary trips, shorten their duration and facilitate everyday functioning. Warsaw is not ceasing to be a city of one main centre, but it is becoming increasingly clearly a city of many everyday centres.

Mark Paźniak
Specialist, GIS Analyst

The Poznan Racetrack case gained publicity following information about a decision upholding an order to suspend the use of installations on the site. This triggered strong opposition from motorsport fans, particularly visible on social media. The facility, however, did not remain out of use for long. The Chief Inspectorate for Environmental Protection announced that the enforcement of the decision of March 31, 2026 had been suspended until the case is resolved by the Provincial Administrative Court. In practice, this means that Poznan Racetrack may currently operate under the existing conditions. The matter has not, however, been finally concluded and the risk of restrictions on the track’s operations remains real.

For many people connected with motorsport, significance of Poznan Racetrack goes beyond the local dimension. For years, it has been associated not only with racing and motorsport, but also with training and other automotive events. At the same time, a dispute has been growing around the track, bringing into conflict arguments concerning residents’ right to a comfortable life, applicable environmental standards and the protection of a facility that has operated in this location for almost half a century.

This supra-local importance is well illustrated by the history of the Poznan Racetrack. When the facility opened in December 1977, it was the only major racing circuit in Poland and a symbol of sporting ambitions pursued on the eastern side of the Iron Curtain. For decades, it maintained its position as the country’s most important permanent racing circuit. Today, the paradox is that almost 50 years later Poland may face the prospect of losing its only homologated circuit of international significance. The Poznan Racetrack remains the only facility in Poland homologated by the FIA, which gives the entire case a dimension extending beyond the vicinity of Przeźmierowo and Poznań.

In this dispute, the historical argument frequently returns. The Poznan Racetrack was built in the 1970s on the site of a former military training ground, exploiting the old, no longer used runways of Ławica Airport. The facility was therefore operating long before a large part of the current residential development appeared in its vicinity. The dispute concerns primarily the noise generated by racing cars, but it is worth remembering that cars were already driving there when building plots were being sold in the area and development permits were being issued. This leads to the question of whether the current conflict could have been avoided through appropriate spatial planning and by allowing in the area only such a direction of space development as would have been adequate to the neighbourhood of an existing racing circuit.

The background to this story is the development of Przeźmierowo and the surrounding area. In recent decades, this area has undergone intensive urbanisation as part of the residential hinterland of the Poznań agglomeration. In the case of Poznan Racetrack, the conflict did not appear suddenly, but grew as development in the vicinity of the facility expanded.

An economic argument also appears in the public debate. The proximity of the racing circuit and the airport may have been one of the factors affecting property price levels in this area. Viewed in this way, some buyers may have decided to purchase because of more attractive prices, while at the same time being aware of the specific nature of the location and the lower life comfort associated with it. According to historical data from the AMRON database, in 2003-2004, i.e. in the period preceding the largest increase in the number of Przeźmierowo residents, building plots there cost on average PLN 115 per sqm. Currently, according to up-to-date data from the same database, the average price is PLN 825 per sqm. On the other hand, residents argue that regardless of when the facility was built or how property values have changed, they have the right to expect compliance with the applicable standards. This is why the dispute today has not only an emotional and economic dimension, but also a formal and administrative one.

One of the key threads in the Poznan Racetrack case is spatial planning. For years, development in the vicinity of the facility took place in conditions, in which there were no effective tools that would clearly separate the residential function from areas exposed to noise. Until recently, the study of conditions and directions of spatial development, as the main planning document in a municipality, did not have the legal force to prohibit residential development within a specified distance from the circuit. In the absence of local spatial development plans, successive projects could therefore be built on the basis of decisions on development conditions. As a result, residential development began to move closer to the circuit.

Today, the formal situation is different: studies have been replaced by general plans, which have legal force, while local spatial development plans specify their provisions in greater detail. If a similar facility as the Poznan Racetrack was built today, it would be possible to designate a buffer zone around it, intended, for example, for insulating greenery or industrial development, which would separate residential development from the area exposed to excessive noise. The general plan of the Tarnowo Podgórne municipality, the draft of which was subject to public consultation in January 2026, also appears in the background of the case.

Additionally, both technical and legal dimensions of the case also remain important. The basis for the authorities’ actions was the identified exceedance of permissible noise levels. The difference between levels of 55 and 50 dB, which to a layman may appear negligible,  is often refrained in the public sphere. In administrative proceedings, however, such parameters are highly significant, because they may determine whether a facility is permitted to operate in a specific environment. In practice, the issue is therefore not merely an apparently small numerical difference, but a threshold, on which the legal assessment of the circuit’s impact on its surroundings depends.

The operators of the circuit, in turn, emphasise that the facility is taking measures to reduce noise. Residents, meanwhile, argue that regardless of the circuit’s tradition, environmental standards must be met. As a result, the dispute is not limited solely to the question of who is right, but concerns a difficult attempt to reconcile two legitimate interests: the protection of residents’ living conditions and the preservation of an important sports facility.

The issue of noise around the Poznan Racetrack should also be considered in the broader context of location. The facility operates in the immediate vicinity of Poznań-Ławica Airport, for which a restricted use area has been established due to the airport’s acoustic impact. This shows that this part of the agglomeration for years has not been a typical quiet residential area, but rather a space, where residential functions coexist with burdensome transport and sports infrastructure. From this perspective, the dispute over the Poznan Racetrack is not only about the circuit itself, but also about a broader question concerning the future of the entire surrounding area and whether, if the racing facility were eventually closed, the airport would become the next source of conflict.

For now, the most important point remains that the case has not been finally resolved. Enforcement of the decision has been suspended and the further course of events depends on the court and the subsequent actions of the parties to the proceedings. Regardless of the outcome of this specific case, the conflict around the Poznan Racetrack has already become an example of a broader problem: how to reconcile the development of residential housing with the presence of older infrastructure and sports facilities. This question will be important not only for Przeźmierowo and the area around the circuit, but also for many other places, where land-use functions have begun to clash. A very important task for planners remains to resolve existing spatial conflicts and to pursue a wise, long-term spatial policy that will make it possible to shape the environment in a way that does not generate new disputes.

Alan Bekker
Specialist, GIS Analyst

At the beginning of the year, it still seemed that the outlook for the Polish housing market was beginning to improve noticeably. After a long period of elevated inflation and monetary policy tightening, as well as short-lived, but significant disruptions related to the Safe Mortgage 2% programme, the first signs of stabilisation began to emerge. On the mortgage market, a clear recovery was recorded in the third and fourth quarters of last year: the number of newly granted loans approached 65 000, while their value reached approximately PLN 30 billion. At the same time, the housing market saw a slowdown in price growth, which in practice meant price stabilisation after an earlier period of strong increases.

Analytical commentaries were dominated by the so-called “soft landing” scenario. It was assumed that inflation would gradually return to target, interest rates would slowly begin to fall and the mortgage market would rebuild as households’ creditworthiness improved. In such an environment, with housing availability increasing, the market was expected to enter a phase of moderate recovery: without sharp price increases, but with a growing number of transactions and improving liquidity.

This scenario, however, was based on the assumption of a relatively stable external environment. Meanwhile, on February28, a break-through event occurred — a joint attack on Iran conducted by the United States and Israel. Although its initial phase was military in nature, its consequences very quickly extended beyond the military sphere. Strikes on energy infrastructure were of key importance, both direct and retaliatory, affecting extraction facilities, refineries, export terminals and elements of transmission networks. Even where the damage was not total, serious operational disruptions emerged: interruptions in the operation of installations, logistical problems and restrictions on exports of raw materials.

From the perspective of the global economy, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important routes for transporting energy commodities, proved crucial. Around one third of global oil trade and a significant share of LPG and CNG pass through this route. Iran’s actions led to actual destabilisation of this bottleneck — not necessarily through a formal blockade, but through an increase in shipping risk. Incidents involving tankers, the presence of military forces or the threat of mining were enough for some shipowners to suspend transport or begin avoiding the region. As a result, there was a real reduction in oil supply on global markets and increased uncertainty regarding the continuity of deliveries.

The energy market reacted immediately. Brent crude prices exceeded USD 100 per barrel, temporarily approaching USD 107, while European gas prices rose to levels above EUR 60 per MWh. Importantly, analysts emphasise that even in the event of a de-escalation of the conflict, a return to previous price levels will not be quick. Rebuilding commodity flows may take months, while the process of restoring shipping safety, including clearing transport routes, may be lengthy. This means that the energy shock is not only sudden, but also potentially persistent.

Under these circumstances, the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecasts for global economic growth, estimating world GDP growth in 2026 at approx. 3.1%. At the same time, it was indicated that without the energy shock, the forecasts would have been higher. Against this background, Poland’s outlook deteriorated relatively slightly: expected GDP growth is around 3.3% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027, which means a correction, but not a change in the overall picture of the Polish economic situation. Poland remains among the economies with relatively stable prospects, due, among other factors, to its lower dependence on oil and gas than many other EU countries and its capacity to cushion shocks through public policy. Public investments, including investment financed under the National Recovery Plan, also remain an important stabilising factor, as — unlike consumption — it is less sensitive to fluctuations in energy prices and supports economic activity during periods of heightened uncertainty. As a result, despite the expected rise in inflation to around 4% and the persistence of higher oil prices, estimated in some scenarios at around USD 90 per barrel in 2026, Poland’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain relatively resilient.

From the perspective of the housing market, two channels of transmission of the fuel market shock appear to be of key importance. First: the cost shock — more expensive energy increases the costs of producing construction materials, transport and project execution. Second: the demand shock — higher inflation reduces households’ real incomes and their creditworthiness. It is this second channel that is particularly important, because earlier optimism in forecasts was largely based on the expected decline in interest rates and improved availability of credit.

Under current conditions, this scenario is at least postponed. The most likely response of the Monetary Policy Council appears to be a shift into “wait-and-see” mode, meaning that interest rates will be kept stable for a longer period. To some extent, this will limit the pace of recovery in credit demand on the housing market and will prompt some households to postpone purchase decisions.

However, it cannot be ruled out that, in conditions of rising uncertainty, some buyers may try to get ahead of a potential deterioration in financing conditions and an increase in housing prices caused by rising construction costs, by taking out mortgage loans with periodically fixed interest rates and accelerating purchase decisions. Although temporary, such an effect may cushion the decline in market activity by concentrating demand in the short term. The likelihood of this scenario is confirmed by data from the Credit Information Bureau as for March of this year. The increase in volume of granted mortgage loans compared with the number recorded in March 2025 amounted to 59%, while in terms of value the increase was even higher, at 72.2%. In short term, we could therefore observe some pressure on housing price growth, especially as developers’ activity in the first quarter was clearly lower than in previous years. In the medium term, the impact of the conflict on housing market demand should gradually fade, although a scenario of persistently reduced demand for housing appears likely, mainly due to weaker growth in households’ real incomes.

The supply side is also not free from tensions. As early as March, the first significant increases in construction material prices appeared (expanded polystyrene) and according to the market information, there are already problems with the availability of certain products, suggesting that the market is preparing for a wave of price increases. These are expected as early as in the second quarter of the year. Rising construction costs and greater uncertainty, with limited although recovering demand, may in turn lead some development companies to temporarily refrain from launching new projects.

In longer term, if elevated energy commodity prices persist, we may witness limited structural changes in the market and energy efficiency becoming an increasingly important factor in housing market choices. This may lead to an acceleration of market stratification: new, energy-efficient apartments would gain a demand advantage, while older housing stock, with higher operating costs, could lose relative attractiveness. As a result, price differences between market segments could deepen.

It therefore seems unlikely that the conflict between the United States and Israel and Iran, despite its economic consequences on a global scale, will have dynamic effects on the Polish housing market. We may rather expect a certain temporary weakening of housing demand, accompanied by a decline in developers’ activity resulting both from uncertainty and from the reduced profitability of projects in a situation of elevated costs and stabilisation or very limited increases in housing prices. In longer term, a return to the recovery scenario seems likely, although its pace remains uncertain. What is currently certain is only the very high level of uncertainty regarding further developments, resulting both from divergent signals coming from the conflict region and from inconsistent, or even internally contradictory, political messages, especially on the US side, which make it difficult to assess the durability of the shock and its further economic consequences.

Jerzy Ptaszyński
Research and Market Service Director