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The origins of artificial intelligence date back to the 1950s – to the work of Alan Turing and the Dartmouth Conference (1956), during which the very concept of AI (Artificial Intelligence) was defined. However, it is only in the past several years, with the growth of computing power, machine learning methods and most importantly, access to vast datasets, that AI has reached a level enabling it to significantly influence reality. Today, AI is present in many areas of our lives: in medicine it supports diagnostics and treatment, in the automotive industry it powers autonomous driving systems, in finance it manages investment portfolios and detects fraud attempts, in logistics it is used to optimize deliveries, in the creative sector it can generate texts, images and music, in education it enables personalized learning paths, in retail it provides precise customer targeting. AI is thus already a tangible tool reshaping the world’s functioning and its potential for future transformation appears inexhaustible. The AI revolution will not bypass the real estate market, a sector often regarded as slow to adopt technological change. In the coming years, artificial intelligence may revolutionize virtually every element of this market – from the valuation process to property management, brokerage and even the development process.

One of areas within the real estate sector, where AI is already being increasingly applied, is the automation of property valuation. AI enables quick estimation of property value using large datasets and advanced machine learning algorithms. The most commonly used models are so-called Automated Valuation Models (AVMs), which rely on analysing property attributes such as location, area, number of rooms, year of construction and so on. Methods employed include linear regression, decision trees, random forests and neural networks, capable of including complex and non-linear relationships between variables. The advantages of using AI in property valuation lie primarily in speed, scalability and the ability to analyse large, complex datasets, which helps to reduce subjectivity and human error. In the future, valuations may also incorporate satellite images, drone data, IoT (Internet of Things) sensors monitoring building conditions, or even weather data to reflect the impact of climate on property values. Naturally, for various reasons (including regulatory ones), these models will not fully replace expert appraisals, particularly in case of properties with atypical characteristics or in unique locations.

Property management, particularly of commercial properties, is becoming increasingly complex due to the growing number of facilities, the intricacy of infrastructure and the high expectations of both tenants and owners. AI-based solutions are increasingly being deployed to streamline and optimize management processes, minimize costs and maintain or improve service quality. AI is primarily used here to automate routine tasks – machine learning systems can automatically monitor the technical condition of buildings, analyse data from IoT sensors and devices, detect malfunctions and even predict them. Another significant application of AI in property management is energy consumption optimization. Intelligent Building Management Systems (BMS) using AI algorithms can analyse energy usage, regulate lighting, heating and air conditioning in real time, adapting them to users’ current needs. This results in substantial energy savings and improved comfort for building occupants. AI is also applied in lease management and tenant services. Chatbots and automated customer service systems can respond to tenant inquiries 24/7, log and track service requests and schedule maintenance visits. Moreover, these systems can analyse tenants’ preferences and behaviours, allowing better tailoring of additional services, thereby improving customer satisfaction. An important element is also the analysis of market and financial data. AI enables fast processing of information on property values, market trends, rent payments or operating costs. As a result, property managers can make more informed decisions regarding investments, leasing strategies or budget optimization.

Brokerage in real estate transactions also holds significant potential for AI-driven transformation. With substantial improvement in access to information (both in ease and speed), the role of brokers is likely to shift more toward advisory services and transaction facilitation. The future will belong to those, who can leverage modern technologies, such as property presentation and showcasing its potential. One of the most important applications of AI in brokerage will be the personalization of property listings. Advanced algorithms will be able to analyse customer preferences, past behaviours and purchasing profiles to propose properties that best match their expectations. This will make the property search process more efficient and less time-consuming. Brokers will gain the ability to present clients with curated offers more quickly, increasing the chances of successful transactions. Additionally, generative AI is already able to create realistic visualizations of interiors or entire buildings even from floor plans. In the future, “virtual staging” may become the standard, enabling clients to view properties in multiple design or lighting variants. As technology develops and data accessibility increases, analytical tools supporting real estate agents’ work will gain in importance. AI, through machine learning algorithms and large-scale data processing, will enable automatic analysis of listings, verification of their value and forecasting of market trends. This will allow for more accurate property selection and recommendations of the most suitable offers to clients. Faster access to high-quality information may in practice mean that the concept of a “market opportunity” will fade, as the best offers will disappear almost instantly. This could significantly reduce the ability of so-called “opportunity hunters” and flippers, for whom the reaction speed has so far been a key advantage. AI may also support brokers by automating marketing activities. AI-based systems can generate property descriptions, optimize social media advertising campaigns and manage client communications. Such solutions will not only improve customer service quality, but also reduce the workload of agents, enabling them to focus on more complex and demanding aspects of their work.

Transformation can also be expected not only in sales, but also in the rental housing market. Thanks to AI, landlords and brokers will be able to set rents in real time based on current demand, seasonality or events in a given city. This may lead to greater price volatility and reduced predictability for tenants, while at the same time enabling landlords to maximize profits. AI can also support the tenant verification process, contract signing and payment monitoring, which increases security, but also brings greater automation into the landlord – tenant relationship.

These are, of course, only the fundamental aspects of AI implementation in the real estate market. Beyond market participants, such as appraisers, brokers or managers, AI’s impact will certainly extend to all related professions and industries – developers, who will be able to more accurately forecast demand and design investments suited to client preferences, while also facing rising competition and likely margin reductions, architects, for whom AI brings the potential for a true revolution, as well as banks, insurers and the construction sector. Over the next 5 – 10 years, AI will become an integral part of the real estate market, influencing every segment – from investment planning, through sales and rental, to property management. Companies that implement these technologies early may gain an advantage, but success will require combining technological innovation with an ethical and transparent approach to clients. These areas hold the greatest challenges of AI adoption. Data monopolization, flawed data, algorithmic errors excluding or disadvantaging certain market participants, or privacy issues are just some of them. Therefore, AI is – and should remain in the future – merely a tool to enable more effective work for professionals operating on this market, and additionally subject to critical oversight. After all, property valuation or sales are not only about hard data, but also about soft factors – emotions and subjective perceptions.

Jerzy Ptaszyński
Research and Market Service Director

As of early 2026, the Polish spatial planning system will undergo a significant transformation. The currently used “studies of conditions and directions of spatial development” (SUiKZP), which have so far been informal in nature, will be replaced by a new act of local law. The reform is intended to bring order to local spatial policy, curb chaotic development and eliminate speculative practices related to obtaining zoning decisions (WZ). As a result, investors and landowners will face an entirely new system, in which decisions will only be issued for areas designated by the municipality as suitable for development and their validity will be limited to five years.

The general plan will become the sole fundamental planning document for each municipality. According to current legislation, it must be adopted no later than on June 30, 2026 (this deadline was extended to provide a transitional period and avoid legal chaos). The general plan formalizes the division of a municipality’s territory into functional zones: residential (single-family and multi-family), service, agricultural, green and recreational. Most importantly, it designates the “development completion areas” (OUZ) – the only areas where WZ decisions may be issued. Since the general plan constitutes local law, its provisions are binding without the need for local zoning plans. This gives municipalities significant authority in shaping spatial policy and deciding, where development may or may not take place.

Starting from January 1, 2026, all new zoning decisions (WZ) will be issued exclusively for development completion areas (OUZ) designated in the general plan and their validity will be limited to five years from the date they become final. This marks the end of indefinite WZ decisions, which had given investors the certainty that a project could be implemented on a given site, even if construction was delayed. In practice, investors who manage to submit an application before the end of 2025 may still receive a decision with unlimited validity. However, all decisions issued after the new regulations take effect will be valid for only five years. New WZ decisions will only be obtainable, if the plot lies within an OUZ and the planned project aligns with the land use set out in the municipal general plan. Municipalities will gain tools to define development parameters such as minimum plot size, number of storeys and development intensity.

The method for defining development completion areas (OUZ) is detailed in the Regulation of the Minister of Development and Technology dated May 2, 2024 on the method of designating development completion areas in the municipal general plan. According to the regulation, an OUZ may include a group of at least five buildings (industrial buildings classified under KŚT code 101, retail and service buildings – 103, office buildings – 105, hospitals and other healthcare facilities – 106, educational, scientific, cultural, and sports buildings – 107, other non-residential buildings – 109, residential buildings – 110), with each building located no more than 100 metres from the next. The boundary of the area is initially marked by a curve drawn 50 metres from the outline of the buildings. Then, the areas with a surface not exceeding 5 000 sqm. limited by this curve are enclosed. The final step involves drawing a curve 40 metres inward from the previously marked boundary. This inner section is then subtracted from the total area, resulting in the final OUZ designation. This procedure means that not every dense grouping of buildings will automatically qualify as an OUZ – municipalities will independently decide, where to establish them. If a municipality fails to designate an OUZ, this may result in a situation, when the owner of a given plot will be unable to construct any buildings, even if the plot lies within a municipality without a local plan.

The reform paves the way for clearer, yet more restrictive rules. For plots that previously relied on standard WZ decisions (areas without an adopted local spatial development plan), the change could mean that from mid-2026, new WZ decisions will not be obtainable if the municipality has not designated an OUZ. In regions with limited local plan coverage, many plots may lose their investment potential. Moreover, the five-year validity limit will mean that multi-stage developments will require more precise scheduling. Once a WZ decision expires, a new application will have to be submitted, even if the project has not changed.

The best way to secure an investment is to act already in 2025 by submitting a WZ application as soon as possible, so that the request may be processed under the current regulations and benefit from indefinite validity. It is equally important to monitor progress on the general plan – it is advisable to participate in public consultations and express interest to ensure that your plot is included in an OUZ.

The general plan will not replace the Local Spatial Development Plan (MPZP), but it will complement it. The general plan is a new strategic planning document that outlines the broad directions of a municipality’s spatial development. The MPZP will remain a tool used to define precisely, what can be built on a specific site. The key difference between the general plan and the MPZP is that the general plan is mandatory for all municipalities and defines planning zones and development frameworks, whereas the MPZP is an act of local law containing detailed provisions for specific areas. The MPZP will have to comply with the provisions of the general plan.

Summary

The planning reform means that as of January 1, 2026, new WZ decisions will only be possible within OUZ areas and will be limited to five years. By July 1, 2026, municipalities will have to adopt general plans, without which no new WZ decisions may be issued for areas not covered by OUZ. The reform places municipalities in the role of decision-makers, but also requires investors to be more proactive and strategic in their planning. Those, who take advantage of the transition period and submit applications under the old rules, will gain an advantage – especially in case of large, long-term investments.

Klaudia Jastrzębska
Buildings Database Project Coordinator

 

In recent years, there has been increasing discussion about the need to protect the environment and implement eco-friendly solutions. This is no longer just a matter of trends or fear of ongoing climate change, but also of EU regulations, specifically the European Green Deal, launched in 2019, and the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), adopted at the end of 2022. This directive obliges companies to report on ESG factors – environmental (E), social (S), and governance (G) criteria, used to assess a company’s impact on the environment, society and corporate governance, enabling the identification of risks and opportunities associated with business activity.

For companies in the construction sector, meeting environmental criteria has become crucial. In addition to complying with EU standards, it contributes to the prestige of an investment. On project websites, one can often find sections dedicated to the environment, where developers highlight the energy efficiency of buildings and environmentally respectful construction as advantages. In some cases, developers showcase their sustainable building certification as evidence of eco-friendly practices and compliance with ESG criteria. Sustainable building certifications are of global nature, meaning that each type of certification features a uniform classification of buildings worldwide.

The most popular certification system in Poland is BREEAM (Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method), a system originating from the United Kingdom. The BREEAM assessment includes ten categories: management, health and wellbeing, energy, transport, water, materials, waste, land use and ecology, pollution, and innovation. The level of compliance is indicated by certification ratings. There are five levels, and residential buildings in Poland have been awarded certificates at four of them, from the lowest: Pass, Good, Very Good, Excellent.

According to the database of certified buildings maintained by the Polish Green Building Council (PLGBC), the majority of residential projects with sustainable building certification are located in Warsaw. It is therefore worthwhile to focus on investments in the capital. For the purposes of this publication, average apartment prices were compared by BREEAM certification level, as well as average prices for BREEAM – certified investments versus those without certification. The pricing data is based on the price per square meter from primary market sales agreements, collected in the AMRON System. To ensure the results are reliable, only investments located in the same district and completed in the same year were compared.

Investments certified at the Pass and Good levels completed in 2024 in the Praga – Południe district were analysed, as well as investments certified at the Good and Very Good levels completed in 2021 in Mokotów. In Praga – Południe, the average price for Pass – certified investments was approximately PLN 12 800, while for Good – certified investments it was around PLN 14 000 – nearly 10% higher. In Mokotów, the average price for Good – certified investments was approximately PLN 14 000, while for Very Good – certified projects, it was slightly, i.e. by approx. PLN 200 lower.. However, when the analysis was narrowed to projects by a single developer, the average price for Very Good – certified investments turned out to be slightly higher, i.e. by approx. PLN 100.

The analysis also included certified and non – certified investments completed in 2021 in Mokotów. The average price for certified investments was about PLN 14 000, while for non – certified projects it was approximately PLN 10 800, which was less by over 20%.

The conducted calculations show that the level of certification can have a significant impact on apartment prices, though not necessarily in every case. It is possible that only projects with the lowest certification level lose value, while the others may maintain similar values regardless of certification level. It is also possible that investors assess the impact of certification level on investment value differently. However, simply holding a sustainable building certificate is likely one of the main reasons for increasing market value, which was probably also the case of the 2021 investments in Mokotów. This trend is not surprising, considering the cost of obtaining such a certificate, which can range from several thousand to several tens of thousands of zlotys. Furthermore, the use of energy-efficient solutions in certified buildings contributes to lower operating costs for residents, which undoubtedly encourage developers to raise sale prices for apartments in “green buildings.”

Mateusz Palczewski
Junior Specialist, GIS Analyst

In recent years, the Polish real estate market has experienced unprecedented changes that have significantly influenced the housing preferences of Polish citizens. Rising inflation, sharp interest rate increases and a consequent drastic decrease in mortgage availability have forced many people to revise their plans. An analysis of market data from recent years reveals a clear shift from the long long-dominant ownership paradigm to the growing rental popularity. In 2023, the number of taxpayers reporting rental income increased by 22%, and between 2019 and 2023, this figure increased by nearly 50%.

CHART 1. NUMBER OF TAXPAYERS REPORTING RENTAL INCOME

source: own study based on data from the Ministry of Finance

A decade of ownership – a look into the past (2019 – 2021)

For many years, owning a housing in Poland was considered not only as a life goal, but almost a standard – a dream pursued by entire generations. Property purchase was treated as the safest form of securing the future, building capital, and creating intergenerational wealth. Low interest rates, a stable macroeconomic environment, and relatively affordable property prices in relation to the growing incomes of Poles all encouraged homeownership. A housing loan was easily available, and its monthly instalment was often significantly lower than the rent of a property.

According to data from the Polish Bank Association (SARFiN System), at that time, banks recorded high numbers of granted housing loans. In 2019 – 2020, slightly over 200 thousand loan agreements were concluded annually and in 2021 – as much as 256 thousand. According to NBP data, 80% of transactions on the housing market were supported by bank loans. Bank margins were low and the down payments were often small.

Demand for apartments exceeded supply, leading to a systematic increase in prices, both on the primary and secondary markets. According to AMRON Centre data, between 2019 and 2021 the average transaction price per 1 sqm. of an apartment in Warsaw increased by almost 35%. In Cracow, Wroclaw, and Gdansk the dynamics were similar and in Lodz, an increase by 46% was recorded. Interestingly, despite such a significant increase, the housing affordability index, i.e. the ratio of price to average incomes, remained relatively favourable, which only fuelled the demand spiral.

At the same time, less interest in long-term rental was observed. In 2019, in many cities, especially outside the student season, the rental market was stable and the pressure on rent increases was lower, as a significant percentage of people aspiring to their own apartment could afford a mortgage loan. However, the outbreak of the pandemic in early 2020 led to greater caution among market participants, and the drop in tenants caused by the outflow of students, seasonal workers, and the introduction of remote work led to a correction in rental prices in Poland’s largest cities.

At that time, one belief prevailed: “it’s better to pay off your own than to pay someone else.” Real estate was considered as a safe haven for capital – both by private individuals and investors, who began mass-buying apartments for long-term or short-term rental.

Turning point – 2022 and its consequences

After a record-breaking year 2021, the situation on the housing market began to change rapidly. 2022 was a turning point both for buyers and for developers.

A series of increases in the National Bank of Poland’s interest rates (from 0.10% in October 2021 to 6.75% in September 2022) aiming at reducing inflation, along with new requirements from the Financial Supervision Authority’s Recommendation S (the obligation for banks to include an extra 5 pp interest rate buffer) had a direct impact on the mortgage market. Poles’ creditworthiness dropped dramatically – a person, who previously could borrow PLN 500-600 thousand, was suddenly qualified for a loan half that amount. At the same time, rapidly rising maintenance costs and high housing prices significantly reduced housing affordability.

As a result, the number of newly granted housing loans decreased rapidly. Quarterly numbers of new housing loans at the turn of 2022 and 2023 were by 70% lower in comparison to the peak of 2021, and the annual result of 126 thousand new loan agreements concluded in 2022 was by 50% lower compared to the previous year and at the same time the lowest in 20 years. Demand for dwellings weakened and developers began to limit new investments. Some planned projects were suspended or postponed.

Rapidly rising mortgage interest rates – from 2.86% in Q1 2021 to 9.29% in Q4 2022 (according to NBP data) – had a direct impact on monthly instalments, which for many borrowers increased by as much as 100%. In case of a standard housing loan for PLN 300 thousand with a repayment period of 25 years, an increase in interest rates by several percentage points meant an additional cost of PLN 1 000 – 1 500 per month. For people, who took out loans in 2020 – 2021, when interest rates were still at record-low levels, such an increase was a shock. Many borrowers who initially enjoyed low repayments suddenly found themselves in a difficult financial situation.

After several quarters of dynamic changes, with reduced demand and supply (lower number of offers on both the primary and secondary markets), the housing market gradually began to stabilize. It should be pointed out, however, that this equilibrium meant not only price stabilization (at the level achieved at the turn of 2021 and 2022) but also a decrease in the number of transactions. The ongoing price growth, which had lasted for several years, began to slow significantly and in some locations and market segments, even slight corrections were observed. This phenomenon mainly affected apartments that were previously significantly overvalued, especially those in older buildings or locations with lower investment potential.

It is worth noting that despite price drops in selected locations, in other ones – particularly on the primary market – prices continued to rise. The still high demand for apartments in good locations, as well as problems with the availability of land for new investments, had a major impact here. Furthermore, developers, forced to increase prices due to rising construction costs (building materials, labour), continued their investments, even though the market was becoming more and more demanding day by day.

Meanwhile, the rental market experienced a revival. Many potential buyers who lost creditworthiness had to postpone their apartment purchase plans, and renting has become their only real housing option out of necessity. This demand was further increased by refugees from Ukraine. Moreover, the loosening of pandemic restrictions and the return of students to stationary education, as well as the partial shift away from remote work, increased the demand for long-term rental of apartments. All these factors led to demand for rental significantly exceeding supply, resulting in rent increases – in the period of the largest growths, i.e. from Q2 2021 to Q3 2022, in some cities, it was even 30-40%. It is worth mentioning that the average rent for a two-room apartment in Warsaw with approximately 45 sqm. of floor area increased by 35% during this period (excluding administrative fees and operating costs), while the instalment of a loan granted for the purchase of the same apartment (for 25 years, with LTV = 80%) more than doubled. As a result of these changes at the turn of 2021-2022, the ratio of the average apartment rent to the loan instalment in Poland’s largest cities fell below 1, meaning the loan instalment exceeded the cost of renting. This can be seen in Chart 2, showing how the relative attractiveness of purchasing compared to renting changed from a financial perspective.

CHART 2. THE RATIO OF THE AVERAGE APARTMENT RENT TO THE LOAN INSTALMENT

* Value 1 means that loan instalment = rent, value above 1 – loan instalment < rent, value below 1 – loan instalment > rent.

** Assumptions: rent and purchase cost of an apartment with a floor area of ​​45 sqm, loan granted for 25 years with LTV 80%.

source: own study based on data from NBP and AMRON Centre

Current status (end of 2023 – first half of 2025)

At the turn of 2023 – 2024, a rebuilding of mortgage demand was noted. The ‘Safe Loan 2%’ programme, introduced in response to high interest rates and housing prices, allowed some people who previously lacked creditworthiness to consider buying their own apartment again. However, after the government subsidy pool was exhausted, demand fell again. Since Q2 2024, banks have been granting approximately 45-48 thousand housing loans quarterly, which – if it maintains this level – will allow for reaching approximately 180 thousand new loans in 2025, i.e. the so-called ‘organic level’ of the mortgage market that the Polish banking sector is able to maintain without additional government support.

The rental market was returning to balance after a period of increased demand resulting from the war in Ukraine. Although rent increases have clearly slowed down, its level remained significantly higher than before 2022. This is due to a limited supply of apartments for rent (some investors may have withdrawn from the short-term rental market, but this is insufficient to meet long-term demand) combined with demand that was reduced in comparison to 2022 but remained at a high level. Additionally, high property maintenance costs, including increases in electricity and heating prices, as well as municipal services, mean that apartment owners have no space to reduce rents.

The structure of tenants has also changed. More and more people who previously planned to buy their own apartment are renting for longer than they initially anticipated. This affects both young people entering the labour market and families. Importantly, rising rents are an increasing share of household budgets. In Poland’s largest cities, where the concentration of rental demand is the highest, the average rent for an apartment constitutes over 40% of the median net salary. Such an expense is a significant challenge, especially for low-income people, making it difficult to save for a down payment or simply to function stably.

Investing in apartments for rent in Poland remains attractive. For investors with available funds, stable rents and relatively small changes in property prices (compared to previous years) mean that purchasing an apartment for rent, despite lower profitability than in previous years, can still be an attractive alternative. In the face of declining returns from bonds and other financial instruments, real estate is still considered a safe form of capital investment.

Recent interest rate cuts by the Monetary Policy Council (by 0.5 percentage points in May and by 0.25 percentage points in July 2025) increased creditworthiness and lowered monthly mortgage instalments, which should stimulate demand and increase the number of transactions on the real estate market. For the rental market, the main effect will be a partial outflow of tenants towards purchasing their own apartments, which should maintain rent stability or even cause a slight declines. However, the long-term impact on rents will depend on whether the increase in dwellings prices does not outweigh the reduction in loan costs, which could again limit ownership availability and sustain demand for rental.

Conclusions

Market data from recent years indicates a noticeable change in Poles’ housing preferences, driven by economic challenges. From a culture of ownership, there has been a slow shift towards a greater share of rental in the housing structure (although the rental market in Poland is still small in comparison to other countries – according to Eurostat data, in 2024, rented dwellings in Poland accounted for only 13% of the housing stock), which was not always a conscious choice, but often a necessity.

Key observations:

1. Housing loan availability is a determinant: It is creditworthiness, not just the willingness to own, that determines the ability to purchase apartments. Fluctuations in interest rates and creditworthiness have a direct impact on the number of transactions on the primary and secondary markets.
2. The rental market is a buffer with growing problems: It has become a buffer for those who cannot or do not want to buy an apartment. Its importance is growing, and consequently the pressure on rent increases. The current level of Poles’ income burden from housing costs (often exceeding 40%) is alarming and indicates a deepening problem with housing affordability. This situation may lead to further impoverishment of parts of society and delay economic development.
3. Housing policy challenges: The current situation questions the long-term effectiveness of programs that support only purchasing. A balanced approach is needed, which also includes the development of a stable and affordable rental market, rather than just focusing on housing loans. Without comprehensive actions that take into account both the supply and the improvement of the population’s purchasing power in the context of housing costs, the problem of housing affordability will intensify.

Agnieszka Pilcicka
Real Estate Market Senior Analyst

The housing problem in Poland is a real pain point for young people, affecting many aspects of their lives – from decisions about starting a family to freedom in job searching or access to education. High prices, ownership culture and shortages in social housing create a complex picture of the situation where it’s increasingly difficult to get one’s own place. As a result, more and more people aged 25-34 live with their parents and this phenomenon is becoming a permanent element not only of the Polish social landscape – it’s a trend visible throughout Europe and even worldwide. The terms “nesters”, “bamboccioni” (from Italian: “adult babies”), and “kidults” (from English: “adult children”) describe young adults, who live with their parents or move back after some time of independent living.

According to the GUS report “Poland in the European Union 2024”, in 2023, as many as 52.9 percent of Poles aged 25-34 lived with their parents. The study analysed the so-called “nesting indicator”. Based on this, European Union countries were divided into five groups. Poland – alongside Italy, Portugal, Greece, Slovakia and Croatia – was placed in the group with the highest percentage of such people, ranging from 50 to 64.3 percent. In Scandinavian countries, the smallest percentage of young adults live with their parents – in the case of Finland and Sweden, it’s only 3.4 to 9.9 percent of people in this age group.

Young Polish men and women live with their parents longer mainly for two reasons. On one hand, it’s a cultural issue: in Poland, we have a strong belief in the importance of close family ties and supporting children. On the other hand, problems on the housing market play a key role. We’re talking about difficulties such as very high real estate prices, high rental prices, lack of available housing in rural areas, low availability of mortgage loans, as well as lack of state-subsidized housing, which make it difficult for young people to become independent.

Although “nesting” is not a new phenomenon, the COVID-19 pandemic significantly deepened it. Many people lost sources of income or had to interrupt their studies and return to family homes. Additionally, anxiety caused by the war in Ukraine and mass immigration of families from Ukraine only strengthened the sense of uncertainty about the future.

Young people’s decision to buy an apartment depends on many factors, but currently the most important are very high real estate prices and high mortgage loan instalments. Poles struggle with some of the highest mortgage loan rates in the European Union, with interest rates exceeding 7%, which significantly surpasses the EU average of about 3.5%. High interest rates and high bank margins lead to decreased creditworthiness, resulting in reduced possibilities for apartment purchases.

For young people, a major obstacle in applying for a mortgage loan has been the mandatory requirement to have a down payment, introduced by the Polish Financial Supervision Authority. Currently, one must have an amount constituting 10 to 20 percent of the property’s value, which means the necessity of accumulating significant savings. An additional problem is the form of employment – young people working very often on civil law contracts usually have lower creditworthiness.

That’s exactly why so many young Poles don’t buy apartments. Above all, they can’t afford it. Even if they were able to obtain a loan, the monthly instalments are so high that they’re afraid to take on such a financial commitment.

The overwhelming majority of households in Poland occupy owner-occupied housing. Eurostat data shows that as many as approx. 87 percent of apartments in Poland are private properties, over 13 percent of which were bought on credit. One of the key reasons, why the housing market in Poland looks the way it does, is the strong drive to possess private property. There’s a widespread belief that young people, entering adulthood, should decide to buy their own place, and long-term apartment rental often meets with negative reception. In Western countries, young people more often opt for mobility and believe that owning their own apartment or house may limit them in some way. In Poland, however, the drive to own real estate is strongly rooted – it’s a dream passed down from generation to generation and treated as an important element of life stabilization.

This pressure, combined with current economic conditions make many young people forced to take out a loan in purpose to buy a housing. The report “Happy Home. Housing To Be or Not To Be” prepared by the Otodom webservice presents the profile of a typical Polish borrower. It shows that the vast majority of young people, wanting to buy their own apartment or house, must rely on a mortgage loan – as many as 87 percent of people aged 26-34 indicate that this is the only realistic path to property ownership for them.

An interesting trend, particularly noticeable in Western countries, is the growing number of young people who choose to rent instead of buying an apartment by their own choice. Unfortunately, even if Poles changed their approach to ownership and were more inclined toward rental, we still encounter serious barriers.

As Eurostat data shows, apartment rental in Poland is still not very popular – it concerns only 13 percent of households, while the average for European Union countries is 31 percent. Moreover, this indicator has remained almost unchanged for about 15 years. For comparison, in Austria and Germany, approx. half of the residents live in rented premises – 45.8 and 50.5 percent respectively.

The limited number of apartments available for rent in Poland and the applicable law protecting tenants translates into high rent rates on commercial market. The latest AMRON-SARFiN Report 1/2025 indicates a varied situation in individual cities. The lowest average rental rates for apartments in Q1 2025 were recorded in cities such as Katowice (1 265 PLN/month) and Lodz (1 394 PLN/month). The most expensive is in Warsaw and Wroclaw, where the average apartment rental rate in Warsaw was 2 286 PLN and 1 883 PLN/month respectively. For many young people, this means that independently renting an apartment becomes beyond their financial reach – especially when they simultaneously need to cover other basic expenses such as bills, food or education-related costs.

Outside the largest agglomerations, the availability of rental housing in Poland is very limited. In small towns and villages distant from large cities, the commercial rental market practically doesn’t function. In some former provincial capitals, such as Konin, Łomża or Suwałki, the number of apartment rental advertisements rarely exceeds ten per month. As a result, young people living in rural areas or small county towns usually have only three realistic options: build a house independently, move to a larger city or remain in the family home. This is exactly one of the main reasons why Poland maintains a high level of nesting.

In large cities, the monthly fee for apartment rental often equals, and sometimes even exceeds, the amount of a mortgage loan instalment for a similar premises. For this reason, for many young Poles, renting an apartment is simply a necessity, not a conscious choice. As soon as their situation allows them to take a loan (when they achieve creditworthiness and accumulate a sufficiently high down payment), most of them would immediately decide to buy their own apartment.

Finland and Sweden, where the percentage of young people living with their parents is the lowest, effectively support housing independence through appropriate state programs. In Sweden, people aged 18-25 can apply for so-called youth housing, i.e. small premises with favourable rent, which are meant to facilitate their entry into adulthood and independence. In Finland, there’s a support system for people buying their first apartment, which also promotes earlier leaving of the family home and starting independent life.

To improve the situation of young people on the Polish housing market, comprehensive actions are needed. One of the key aspects is mental change and abandoning the model of private ownership as a necessity and the only right option. Following the example of Finland or Sweden, where government programs supporting young people’s housing independence work successfully, Poland should focus on developing social housing and rental support programmes. Without solving these issues, it will be difficult to improve the demographic situation, increase economic competitiveness or sustainable urban development.

Monika Grążawska
Customer Relations Senior Specialist

In recent years, micro-apartments, i.e. compact units with a floor area often not exceeding 25 sqm., have become an increasingly discussed topic in the real estate market. Although such housing solutions have existed for decades in many countries, especially in Asia, they remain a new and controversial phenomenon in Poland. Some perceive them as a potential solution to the housing crisis and a response to the needs of young people, while others see them as a troubling symptom of a deteriorating socio-economic situation and declining urban planning standards.

Polish law defines the minimum residential area as 25 sqm. (pursuant to the Regulation of the Minister of Infrastructure of April 12, 2002, on technical conditions to be met by buildings and their location), yet the market also includes units formally classified as commercial premises, which bypass this requirement. In practice, a micro-apartment is a living space of approximately 20–30 sqm., usually arranged in an open-plan layout with a kitchenette, small bathroom and sleeping area.

Based on AMRON System data, the average price of apartments in Warsaw over the past year was analysed, categorized by usable floor area. Only transactional data were included in the analysis (final sales agreements from the secondary market, preliminary agreements from the secondary market, and preliminary agreements from the primary market).

CHART 1. AVERAGE PRICE PER M² OF AN APARTMENT IN WARSAW BY FLOOR AREA (2024)

For many, the main advantage of micro-apartments is their price. As the chart shows, price per square meter may be even higher for micro-apartments than for standard-sized units, but the total purchase cost remains significantly lower. For individuals with limited budgets and no mortgage eligibility for larger units, this may be the only way to own property in a major city.

The reasons behind the popularity of micro-apartments are complex. A key factor is the rising cost of real estate, as noted above. Moreover, demographic changes in Poland may be contributing to their growing appeal – people increasingly choose living as singles, and there is a rising number of both internal and external migrants looking for affordable housing options. Younger generations also value lifestyle flexibility, are more mobile and less tied to one place of residence for the long term. Developers’ pressure also plays a major role. Rising land prices and diminishing access to centrally located plots are pushing investors to maximize profits by building on smaller areas. As a result, micro-apartments are no longer just a phenomenon, but have become a real, albeit still relatively small, segment of the market.

From an urban planning perspective, micro-apartments raise serious questions. Urbanists are debating whether such housing types truly support the development of well-designed, sustainable cities. In densely built metropolitan centres, micro-apartments can serve as compact housing for workers, students, or singles. In Asian countries such as Japan or China, they are even integrated into the urban infrastructure: proximity to metro lines, services and public spaces compensates for the lack of private space. In Poland, however, many micro-apartment developments emerge chaotically – often in locations lacking good transport links, green areas or local services.

There are frequent cases of unofficial “conversion” of commercial premises into residential use, which allows developers to bypass regulations and standards required for proper residential units. From a financial market perspective, micro-apartments pose challenges: if an unit is legally a commercial property, it is ineligible for a standard mortgage, requiring a more expensive investment loan instead. A mortgage loan for purchase of a commercial unit can only be obtained by an individual or legal entity engaged in business activity. Furthermore, even if a unit meets legal residential standards, banks may question its value as loan collateral. Micro-apartments are considered riskier and less liquid than standard units, which can make them harder to sell. Consequently, some banks impose minimum size requirements on properties eligible for mortgage financing. For prospective buyers, this often means the need for a higher down payment or alternative financing options.

For developers, micro-apartments can be a highly profitable product. The ability to build more units on a single plot translates into higher profits. Small-area units tend to sell relatively quickly, especially in major cities, where demand from individual investors (e.g. for short-term rental) is high. However, in Poland, there is increasing discussion around the issue of “patho-development” and local governments are beginning to pay more attention to the phenomenon, often with scepticism. There are initiatives and discussions aimed at limiting the construction of micro-apartments through local zoning plans.

It is worth considering whether micro-apartments are merely a short-term trend driven by current market challenges or a lasting transformation of urban housing structures. There is no clear answer. On one hand, the demand for affordable, accessible housing will not vanish. Demographic changes, rising living costs and limited mortgage affordability will continue to fuel interest in smaller units. On the other hand, an increasing number of people are recognizing the limitations of this solution and seeking alternatives, such as co-living (driven in part by rising rental prices) or modular housing. One possible solution would be better design of micro-apartments, focusing on quality, functionality and integration with urban infrastructure. A micro-apartment does not have to be a “shoebox” if it is smartly designed and situated within the right urban context.

Conclusions

Micro-apartments are a market response to real challenges, but they are not a universal solution. They offer an interesting alternative for young, mobile individuals looking for a low-cost entry into city living. However, over time, excessive promotion of this type of housing may exacerbate urban and social problems. While living in a micro-apartment can be practical, it also carries serious long-term socio-psychological consequences. Lack of space, privacy and comfort may negatively impact mental health, interpersonal relationships and work performance. Therefore, micro-apartments may serve well as temporary solutions, but are unlikely to be a healthy long-term alternative.

If the micro-apartment trend is to continue, regulatory measures will be needed to ensure residents’ quality of life, financial fairness and proper urban planning.

Karol Kacprzak
AMRON III Project Manager
Analyst and System Development Specialist

The Polish housing market is constantly changing – prices’ fluctuations, changes in the supply structure, differences between regions – all of this means that anyone interested in the subject of housing should be aware that this is a dynamic and highly complex phenomenon. Property prices are influenced by a number of factors: from the general condition of the economy and the level of inflation, through local investment decisions, to the demographic structure of a given city or the availability of public transport. One of the key elements of this puzzle is the relationship between the primary market (i.e. new apartments) and the secondary market (i.e. those that already have their owners and a history).

Although both markets operate in parallel, their logics can be completely different. Apartments on the primary market are mostly “produced” by developers – so their prices depend largely on construction costs and the availability of plots. Meanwhile, the secondary market is the domain of individual apartment owners. On one hand, we have the sector of planning and investments, on the other – the decisions of thousands of people guided by life necessity, convenience or emotions.

Importantly, despite these differences, both markets influence each other. When a lot of new apartments are built in a city, this can limit the price pressure on the secondary market. But it can also be the other way around – a lack of sufficient new development can drive up the prices of existing stock. Therefore, understanding the relationship between these two market segments is of great importance today – both for buyers and for decision-makers planning the spatial development of cities.

In this article, we examine this relationship trying to answer the question of whether and to what extent the new housing production translates into the prices of secondary market apartments in medium-sized Polish cities. We examined 24 cities with county rights, where the population in 2023 was between 100 000 and 200 000 people.

Two data sources were used for the analysis: statistics from the Statistics Poland (GUS) on the number of apartments put into use (i.e. new supply on the primary market) and data from the AMRON database. The period covered 2014–2023 – a full decade.

Each of the studied cities was ranked in two ways: according to the scale of housing production (i.e. the average number of apartments put into use per 1 000 inhabitants – chart 1.) and according to the rate of price growth on the secondary market (i.e. the change in the median price per sqm in the analysed period – chart 2.). To enable clear comparisons, the values ​​of both indicators were divided into tertiles – i.e. three groups with the same number of cities. They were then compiled into a simple 3×3 matrix, showing which cities were characterized by a given combination of the scale of housing production and the rate of price growth (chart 3.).

The results were interesting and sometimes surprising. The largest number of cities – five out of 24 – were ranked in the most desirable place in this matrix: high housing production and low price growth. This is a signal that the appropriate scale of new development can effectively counteract price pressure. This group included Rzeszów, Olsztyn, Kielce and Gorzów Wielkopolski – voivodeship cities, as well as Koszalin, a former voivodeship city.

The situation at the other end of the list was completely different. In four cities – Rybnik, Ruda Śląska, Bytom and Tarnów – a low level of new construction and a very high price increase were recorded at the same time. This is a worrying phenomenon that may indicate a structural housing shortage – a situation in which housing needs significantly exceed market possibilities. Such a mismatch results not only in price increases, but also in a growing risk of housing exclusion – especially for young people, families working their way up or seniors living on pensions. Importantly, in these cases, the price increase was subject to the so-called “base effect” – prices grew dynamically, but started from a low level from a decade ago.

Another equally interesting category were cities in which, despite high developer activity, housing prices on the secondary market were still rising very quickly. Among the 24 cities analysed, two had such characteristics: Zielona Góra and Opole. In their case, we are dealing with an example of a hot market – dynamic development, inflow of investors, good economic prospects. However, this type of boom also carries a risk: when the situation reverses, for example as a result of a crisis or population outflow, prices may fall just as rapidly.

It is also worth noting the complexity of the phenomenon itself. Many cities, despite low housing production, have not experienced a dramatic increase in prices. There may be many reasons: falling population, lack of new jobs, low investment attractiveness. In turn, in some centres, the high supply of apartments was not a sufficient barrier to prices, which shows that the market cannot be slowed down by the number of new buildings alone. The quality of these apartments, their location, access to public transport or social infrastructure are crucial.

CHART 1. AVERAGE HOUSING PRODUCTION PER 1 000 INHABITANTS, 2014-2023

CHART 2. PERCENTAGE INCREASE IN THE MEDIAN PRICE PER SQUARE METER OF HOUSING ON THE SECONDARY MARKET, 2014-2023

CHART 3. CLASSIFICATION MATRIX

 

At the statistical level, the analysis showed a moderate correlation between new supply and price changes on the secondary market. In other words, there is a relationship, but it is neither direct nor unequivocal. This is an important conclusion: it is not enough to simply build more to reduce prices. A smart, locally adapted housing policy is needed, taking into account the real needs of residents.

Although it is impossible to draw one simple rule, the analysis allows for a better understanding of the mechanisms operating on local housing markets. It shows that an effective housing policy must take into account investments in infrastructure, spatial planning and the development of services. Only such an integrated approach will allow medium-sized cities to effectively counteract housing imbalances and create space that is actually accessible to all social groups.

Hubert Horynek
Real Estate Market Analyst

The new “First Keys” programme is the government’s response to the growing difficulties that Poles face when trying to purchase their own home. Stringent credit requirements and high property prices mean that many persons are unable to afford a place of their own. The aim of this initiative is to enable individuals, who previously had no opportunity to enter the housing market by improving access to financing, while maintaining market balance and mitigating the risk of price inflation driven by excessive demand. The “First Keys” programme could become an important tool in addressing the housing crisis in Poland. Since the draft legislation has not yet been officially presented, all related information should be treated as preliminary.

Who is it for?

The “First Keys” programme will be addressed to citizens who have never owned a flat or a house, neither individually, nor jointly with another person. Its main goal is to support those, who are just beginning their journey toward homeownership.

The initiative is also expected to include financial support for social and municipal housing (BSK), as well as for Social Rental Housing (SBC) by increasing the availability of rental units with moderate rents and affordably priced homes for purchase. Investments carried out under this model will be eligible for subsidies, making it easier for local governments and social housing initiatives to build units accessible to individuals, who cannot afford to purchase a home on the commercial market. In this way, the programme aims to support not only individual beneficiaries, but also to expand the stock of social housing in Poland.

When will it start?

The programme is expected to launch at the beginning of 2026 and run through the end of 2030. A specific start date has not yet been set, as the legislative draft is still under consultation.

The government intends to guarantee subsidies for the first 10 000 qualifying applications submitted each quarter, along with a request for a loan instalment subsidy. Once this threshold is reached, applications will be temporarily suspended until the start of the next quarter.

Financial Terms – how much can you borrow?

The maximum housing loan amount eligible for a subsidy under the “First Keys” programme will depend on the household members. The principle is simple: the larger the household, the higher the loan limit eligible for support. This mechanism is designed to align government assistance with the actual housing needs of families of different sizes.

Below is a table outlining the programme’s financial terms, based on information published by Bankier.pl. It includes both income limits and the maximum loan amounts eligible for subsidies.

Household size	Max Monthly Net Income	Max Amount of Subsidised Loan
1 person	PLN 6 500	PLN 250 000
2 persons	PLN 9 500	PLN 400 000
3 persons	PLN 11 500	PLN 450 000
4 persons	PLN 13 500	PLN 500 000
5 persons*	PLN 15 000	PLN 600 000

* Each additional household member increases the available loan limit by PLN 50,000.

Some publications are based on different figures, indicating that the final values may still be revised.

If a household’s income exceeds the specified limit, the subsidy amount will be proportionally reduced by PLN 0.50 for each PLN 1.00 of excess income in single-person households and by PLN 0.25 in households of two or more people.

Price limits for properties will also apply. The price of a property purchased on the secondary market must not exceed the price cap per square meter of usable floor area, as determined under the law. This limit is to be announced annually, based on the average construction costs in the social housing sector. Local governments may establish different (lower or higher) limits for their jurisdiction than those set at the national level.

Unofficial sources suggest that this limit will be PLN 10 000 per 1 sqm. for smaller towns and PLN 11 000 per 1 sqm. for larger cities such as Warsaw, Cracow, Gdansk, Poznan and Wroclaw.

Instalment Subsidies and Favourable Interest Rates

The new mortgage loan solution will be available exclusively in Polish zlotys and must have a minimum repayment term of 15 years. The interest rate will be fixed, set for five-year periods. So-called “stabilization subsidies” will apply to the first 120 principal and interest instalments, provided they are paid on time according to the repayment schedule.

If the loan is issued as a consumer loan to finance a housing contribution or equity share under the programme, the repayment term must be at least 5 years, but no more than 15 years. In this case, subsidies will apply to the first 60 instalments.

One component of the “First Keys” programme also includes support for those planning to purchase a home, but have a low down-payment. According to the draft proposal, individuals taking out a mortgage with a down-payment of less than 20% of the investment value will be eligible for a loan repayment guarantee from Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK), provided the total loan-financed cost does not exceed PLN 1 million.

This loan guarantee may also apply to housing-related consumer loans, provided they are taken to cover the cost of a housing contribution or participation in the construction of a residential unit within social housing frameworks such as housing cooperatives or TBS organizations.

In the case of mortgage loans under the “First Keys” programme, a subsidy will be provided, reducing the interest rate to 1.5%. In contrast, loans financing housing contributions or participation costs will carry a 0% interest rate.

What can be purchased under the programme?

For new constructions, subsidized loans may finance, among other things, the construction of a single-family home, its finishing, the purchase of a building plot, or investments carried out by housing cooperatives. On the secondary market, subsidies will only be available under specific conditions related to the property, which must be completed and used as a housing unit for at least five years, as well as to the seller, who must hold a legal title to it for a minimum of three years. These conditions aim to prevent speculative property transactions.

Summary

The “First Keys” programme seems to offer a real opportunity for many young people to begin life in their own home. It combines attractive financial conditions with a broad range of possibilities for purchasing or building a property. However, it is important to remember that the number of applications will be limited, and the specific terms of the programme are still subject to clarification.

Joanna Woźniak
Maintenance and Development Specialist

REITs, or Real Estate Investment Trusts, are special funds that invest on the real estate market and generate income from leasing or selling properties. REITs currently operate in 46 countries worldwide. The United States has the longest history with REITs, having introduced them through the REIT Act in 1960. The intention behind this solution was primarily to open up the commercial real estate market, previously dominated by large funds and wealthy investors, to smaller, individual investors. A key feature of the new solution was the imposition of several requirements on these entities, the most important of which included the obligation to distribute 90% of income as dividends and a focus on real estate investments. The first European country to introduce REITs was the Netherlands. In 1969, tax-privileged investment funds known as Fiscale Beleggingsinstelling were established, which were de facto tax-exempt and required to distribute 100% of their income to shareholders within 8 months of the fiscal year-end. From the 1990s onward, similar solutions were introduced in other countries: Belgium, followed by France (SIIC), Germany (G-REIT), the United Kingdom and Spain (SOCIMI). In Asia, successful implementation examples include Japan, South Korea and Singapore, where REITs play a significant role not only in the real estate sector, but also on financial markets. It is important to note that this model is not uniform: in each country, REITs are regulated individually and the principles of investment and taxation of income vary.

The first plans to introduce REITs in Poland emerged in 2016. At that time, the Ministry of Finance began working on a bill concerning FINNs, i.e. Companies Investing in Real Estate for Rent, which was intended to create the legal framework for Polish REITs. As in other countries, the goal of implementing this solution was to allow smaller individual and institutional investors to participate in the real estate market while maintaining high investment liquidity and transparency, as well as favourable tax treatment, such as exemption from corporate income tax (CIT) in exchange for paying out a specified level of dividends. Initially, the draft legislation assumed that Polish REITs would invest in the residential rental market. Over time, however, the proposals evolved, broadening the scope of investment to include commercial real estate and expanding the pool of potential investors. Subsequent versions of the bill failed to gain full support, either from the market or political decision-makers. Delays were caused by concerns over the speculative nature of the funds and their potential impact on rising housing prices. Critics also pointed to a lack of transparency in the projects and the absence of safeguards for tenants. At the same time, shifting economic conditions, including the COVID-19 pandemic and capital market instability, pushed the topic of REITs further into the background.

The issue of introducing REITs returned to public debate in 2021. A new draft bill was presented, this time focusing exclusively on the commercial real estate market. Despite support from parts of the industry, this bill also failed to pass. In April 2024, the Ministry of Development and Technology revived the idea of introducing REITs, even presenting initial assumptions for a draft bill. However, to date, no official draft amendment or new legal act has been published, and work on new solutions is also underway at the Ministry of Finance. According to media reports, legislative assumptions could be published before the summer holidays. Based on information from the Ministry, the operational framework for Polish REITs in the residential and commercial real estate sectors is already prepared, while work continues on investment rules for infrastructure REITs.

Supporters of introducing REITs in Poland point out that REITs will significantly lower the entry threshold for real estate investments, making them accessible to those, who cannot afford to purchase an entire rental apartment, bear transaction costs, or are unable or unwilling to manage rental properties. Thanks to this low entry threshold, REITs will democratize real estate investment, offering an alternative to bank deposits or equity funds with relatively low investment risk. As such, they could also provide tangible support for the pension system, especially given an ongoing demographic crisis. In Poland’s rental market, which is dominated by private owners, REITs as institutional landlords managing large portfolios of apartments could introduce new quality standards in renting. This is also evidenced by the experience of countries that implemented this solution earlier.

Another important argument in favour of REITs is the need to overcome one of the biggest barriers to the development of Poland’s housing market – limited access to long-term, stable financing. If we add the possibility of financing or co-financing not only housing, but also infrastructure projects, REITs could become highly attractive partners for local governments.

The list of potential benefits of implementing REITs is therefore long. Moreover, these benefits seem truly significant from the perspective of both potential investors and housing needs. All the more, however, it is essential to also consider the potential risks associated with such solutions – risks that, as international experience shows, are not negligible. Sceptics point to the potential rise in property prices or rental rates as the main risk of introducing REITs. This risk does indeed exist, as seen in cities such as Berlin, Dublin or Toronto. Rising housing prices, however, are only part (and a consequence) of a broader phenomenon: the financialization of the housing market resulting from the entry of institutional players. In this process, housing ceases to be viewed as a basic good that fulfils a fundamental human need and instead becomes an investment asset, subject to profitability and value growth criteria. Over the long term, this increases the risk of housing affordability decline and, in extreme cases, the rise of housing exclusion, especially affecting young people, families with children and the elderly. The demographic and urban development consequences of such a scenario are self-evident.

The financialization of the housing market also brings with it the risk of REITs “transferring” problems from the capital market to the housing market. A downturn in capital markets, caused by factors such as interest rate hikes, financial crises or capital flight, could force asset sales, which in turn might destabilize the housing market. In such a case, homes intended to meet basic human needs could become hostages to stock market sentiment. In unstable and risky times, when capital is once again “gaining nationality,” destabilizing the housing market – and thereby social sentiment – could also become a likely scenario and a weapon in hybrid warfare.

According to a report published in December 2024 by JLL and Bank Pekao S.A., the potential long-term engagement of domestic individual and institutional investors in Polish REITs could reach approx. PLN 20 billion. This is an amount comparable to the quarterly volume of mortgage financing by the Polish banking sector. Given that these funds would be invested in both residential and commercial real estate, there is little reason to fear the materialization of the above-mentioned serious risks. However, the likelihood will grow along with the volume of invested capital. It is therefore essential to establish assumptions that will mitigate these risks in the future as well.

Jerzy Ptaszyński
Research and Market Service Director

The suburban town of Ząbki may seem unassuming due to its small area – just 11 km². Over the years, Ząbki has undergone significant changes in character, evolving from a settlement to a garden city concept and, ultimately, into its current state as a high-density urban area. The city’s Development Strategy for 2024-2033 envisions its transformation into a compact city. The structural dynamics of Ząbki stem from its location, population influx and changing residents’ needs.

Located approximately 9 km from the centre of Warsaw, Ząbki’s character is largely shaped by its proximity to the capital. The rapid development of multi-family housing and accompanying services has increased the town’s attractiveness for potential buyers. The central part of Ząbki serves as a hub of concentrated services, housing the City Hall, various public utility buildings and a railway station. Residential development in the city centre consists of multi-family buildings constructed between 1960 and 2000, alongside single-family homes. The service sector is concentrated along Provincial Road No. 634. A social divide exists between the northern and southern parts of the city, separated by the Warsaw Wileńska – Małkinia railway line. The area around the tunnel for vehicular traffic, which connects the northern and southern parts of the city, is considered the town centre.

The northern part of Ząbki is predominantly made up of single-family housing on small plots. At the city’s northern boundary, there is the S8 expressway, which negatively affects residential comfort in this area. The southern part, in contrast, consists mostly of new multi-family housing with commercial spaces on the ground floors.

Ząbki occupies the smallest land area among the municipalities of the Wołomin County (just 1.16% of the county’s total area), yet it has the highest population density. Increasing demands for infrastructure, transportation accessibility and social and living facilities drive the need for new investments, not only in housing, but also in other sectors. Given these factors, Ząbki presents a high investment potential, attracting significant interest from various industries.

Ząbki is a municipal town located in the Wołomin County, which is largely part of the Warsaw metropolitan area. As of December 31, 2023, the town had a population of over 45 thousand, marking an approximate 37% increase compared to 2014.

The demand for residential properties is driven by rising local incomes and migration from smaller towns toward metropolitan areas. These trends are observable both nationwide in Poland and at a local level, particularly in larger towns and the surrounding less urbanized areas. Due to its immediate proximity to Warsaw, Ząbki benefits from socio-economic growth and exhibits similar market trends to the Warsaw real estate sector.

A Brief History of the Town

Originally called Wola Ząbkowa, the town’s history dates back to the 16th century. The royal village of Wola Ząbkowa was located in the Warsaw district of the Masovian Voivodeship. In 1580, its name was changed to Ząbki. The town experienced significant growth in the first half of the 19th century. In 1827, it comprised of 36 buildings and 206 residents, a number that had increased to 600 by the 1880s. At that time, Ząbki was part of the Roniker family’s estate.

By the late 19th century, Count Roniker had built two brickyards and a narrow-gauge railway to Bródno, which boosted employment. The opening of the Warsaw-Saint Petersburg Railway in 1862 further spurred population growth and economic activity. In 1912, a portion of Roniker’s estate was subdivided based on a competition-winning design by Professor Tadeusz Tołwiński, initiating the transformation into a garden city.

The garden city concept aimed to create neighbourhoods surrounded by greenery, featuring low-density housing and a structured division into functional zones to meet residents’ needs. This approach sought to address the issues of overcrowded cities and poor living conditions by designing a self-sufficient town with essential facilities, including a courthouse, post office, power plant, water station, fire station, bathhouse, casino, school and church. A key focus was on spatial planning, with a hierarchy of roads, a market square, standalone villas and extensive parks, squares and gardens.

FIGURE 1. ZĄBKI’S URBAN SUBDIVISION PLAN AS FOR 1912

source: “The Garden City of Ząbki. Idea and Implementation” A. Majewska, J. Szymanowska

The urban plan was adapted to the local topography, preserving the existing road layout while modifying the route to Drewnica. The design incorporated natural ponds and clay pits while adding new parks and squares. The town was to be connected to Warsaw by the Saint Petersburg Railway (with a station in the centre) and the Marecka Railway (to the north). The railway line divided the estate into two sections: the southern part was more prestigious, housing all service facilities, while the northern section was primarily residential with smaller plots.

The town’s structure was clearly defined, comprising five building clusters arranged around a main street that served as a compositional axis perpendicular to the railway line. The axis featured key landmarks such as a church, a school and a sports field. A secondary axis, extending from the market square, linked recreational areas with the eastern casino and the town’s technical service complex. The buildings, including villas, semi-detached houses and row houses, were integrated with green spaces and connected by a system of public areas.

The Current Urban Structure

Comparing Ząbki’s 1912 subdivision plan with its current layout reveals significant differences (Figure 2). Some areas were not subdivided as originally planned, street layouts were altered, land parcels were further divided and denser multi-family, row and semi-detached housing was introduced.

FIGURE 2: THE AREA COVERED BY THE GARDEN CITY PLAN VS. THE CURRENT STATE

source: own study, base map from http://google.pl/maps

A portion of Tołwiński’s design has been designated as a protected zone in Ząbki’s Study of Spatial Conditions and Development Directions. Many buildings are now listed in the heritage registry and municipal records. The city’s Development Strategy for 2024–2033 aims to preserve this area. However, the southern part of the city is not included in this protected zone and, as a result, available land has been maximized for development.

Given the limited space for new investments and the growing needs of residents, Ząbki’s Development Strategy proposes transforming it into a compact city. This approach emphasizes sustainable development and the rational use of available space, ensuring access to essential services within walking distance, reducing reliance on public or private transport.

Since the northern part of Ząbki primarily consists of single-family homes with limited new developments, the analysis focuses on the market for developer-supplied residential units in the southern part of the city.

Residential market in Ząbki

Based on a standardized transactional database in terms of quality, it is possible to identify the key factors that influence property value. However, it should be noted that purchases from developers often involve individual agreements between the seller and the buyer, which may deviate from general market trends.

Over the analysed period (2014–2023), an upward trend can be observed in both the population size and the average price per square meter of usable residential space. The chart below presents the average price per square meter of usable residential space for Wołomin County and Poland as a whole. Using transactional data from the real estate price register and the AMRON System, the chart has been enriched with average price data for Ząbki. A correlation between these average values is evident throughout the analysed period. The price trend line for Ząbki exhibits the greatest fluctuations, as it represents the smallest market segment in this analysis. Consequently, these variations are more noticeable and are not adjusted for local, socio-economic, or economic factors affecting the county or the entire country.

A significant spike in the average price per square meter of residential property in Ząbki in 2021 could have been driven by several factors. The easing of emotions related to the COVID-19 pandemic, prolonged stagnation due to numerous pandemic restrictions and the launch of another edition of the government housing program contributed to improved investor sentiment. Additionally, 2020 was an almost record-breaking year in Ząbki in terms of number of housing units completed, with nearly 22 new apartments per 1 000 residents.

FIGURE 3. AVERAGE PRICE PER SQM OF USABLE RESIDENTIAL SPACE ON PRIMARY MARKET

source: own study based on data from the real estate price register and the AMRON database

When considering the location of residential units within the town, completed investments and their distribution should be taken into account. The southern part of the city experienced dynamic development in multi-family housing construction, leading to the highest number of transactions involving properties in developer standard. The individual housing estates do not differ significantly in terms of architectural style, functional-spatial layout or transport accessibility. They consist of several to a dozen buildings, interspersed with pedestrian pathways, decorative green spaces, playgrounds and designated private gardens for the exclusive use of residents on the ground floors. Given the high demand for parking spaces, large underground garages were built beneath entire estates.

The buildings within each estate are uniform, with no distinct differences in structure, façade or functional layout. As a result, subsequent development phases are merely extensions of the existing estate. These buildings typically have up to five above-ground floors (with occasional dominant structures reaching seven floors), making the southern part of the city cohesive, without a dominant architectural style. However, with ongoing development and new phases of construction, this area faces increasing transportation and social challenges.

The uniform nature of the buildings and lack of architectural diversity have led to the highest demand for apartments on the third and fourth floors. Despite the fact that all new buildings are equipped with elevators, top-floor units are not the most sought-after. This may be due to the lack of height variation among buildings, which reduces the attractiveness of the view. Furthermore, top-floor apartments are associated with potential risks related to roof drainage and possible leaks, as well as the inconvenience of using stairs during elevator malfunctions. Ground-floor units, on the other hand, are more exposed to burglary risks and offer lower comfort due to pedestrian pathways running close to windows and noise from shared areas such as playgrounds and courtyards.

Newly completed residential units have been adapted to changing buyer preferences in terms of size. The most recent phases of housing developments, completed between 2021 and 2023, featured larger average unit sizes, with the most popular apartments ranging from 40 to 60 square meters.

Over the years, the city of Ząbki has transformed from a town characterized by low-intensity single-family housing combined with recreational areas and significant urban greenery into a city of “two cultures,” where a railway line running through the centre has become a social and urban boundary. While the northern part of the city has maintained its original character, the southern part has evolved into a high-density residential area, housing the majority of the town’s population. This area has not been subject to consistent urban planning, leading to an imbalance between residential, commercial and recreational spaces. The Ząbki Development Strategy outlines a plan for implementing a new urban order based on the compact city concept. However, given the severely limited space available, this plan may not significantly improve living conditions in this part of the city. Despite increasing transportation and social issues, housing prices in this area continue to rise at a pace similar to the national market. Unless real estate development in this district reaches spatial limits, this trend is unlikely to change.

Agata Wróblewska
Maintenance and development Specialist
Certified Property Valuer (License No. 8247)