Archives: Badania i publikacje AMRON

Poland’s current geopolitical situation has prompted the government to intensify efforts related to national defence. One of the key steps aimed at preparing society for potential threats, such as war, natural disasters or terrorist attacks, was the adoption, in December 2024, of the Act on Civil Protection and Civil Defence, commonly referred to as the “Shelter Act.” This legislation defines in detail, how civil protection and civil defence are to be organized, including the obligation to prepare suitable infrastructure known as collective protection facilities. The Act distinguishes three types of such facilities:

• Shelter – a protective structure or part of a structure with a closed, airtight design, equipped with air filtration and ventilation systems or regenerative absorbers.
• Hideout – a protective structure or part of a structure that is not airtight.
• Temporary sheltering places – collective protection facilities adapted for the temporary protection of people.

The planning and establishment of such crisis infrastructure are primarily the responsibility of public administration authorities. To this end, they must designate existing or planned buildings (like schools, hospitals or government/ municipal offices) to serve as collective protection facilities. The Act specifies in detail the rules for their use, registration and technical conditions.

However, the private sector, particularly developers, will also play an important role in creating collective protection facilities. According to Article 94 of the Shelter Act: “The underground storeys of public utility buildings or multi-family residential buildings, as well as underground garages, if not designed as protective structures, shall be designed and constructed in such a way as to enable their use as temporary sheltering places.”

This provision therefore imposes an additional obligation on developers to design and build structures that can serve, at minimum, as temporary shelters in the event of an emergency. Multi-family buildings and underground garages, in addition to their regular functions, will thus be usable during crisis situations.

This requirement will come into force soon — it will apply to investments stated from 1 January 2026. According to Article 206 of the Shelter Act: “Articles 93–95 shall apply to any construction project for which, after 31 December 2025:

• an application for a building permit or for the approval of a site development or architectural design has been submitted;
• a construction notice has been filed in cases where a building permit is not required.”

From the developers’ perspective, the key concern is the technical requirements for temporary shelters, as they directly affect both construction costs and project timelines. Such facilities must, among other things:

• have adequate structural strength,
• provide effective ventilation, acoustic and thermal insulation,
• ensure fire safety,
• include evacuation routes and backup power systems,
• be equipped with utilities,
• include wastewater disposal systems.

Detailed technical requirements for temporary sheltering places are specified in the Regulation of the Minister of Interior and Administration of July 9, 2025 on organization and requirements of temporary sheltering facilities.

The introduction of mandatory temporary shelters will extend and complicate the investment planning process and increase construction costs. However, under Article 106 of the Act, building owners or managers may apply for targeted grants to adapt their buildings for use as temporary shelters. These subsidies may cover up to 100% of the additional costs incurred due to the protective requirements, but such financing will be optional, not guaranteed. Consequently, in the event of a refusal, there is a significant risk that property prices will rise, as developers will likely pass on the additional costs to buyers.

From the developers’ standpoint, this obligation represents a costly new challenge. Yet, under normal circumstances, such spaces could also be used as utility or service areas, which may enhance the overall value and attractiveness of the property. From the buyers’ perspective, the combination of residential and protective functions in a single building could also significantly improve the sense of safety and security.

Monika Kubisz
AMRON System Coordinator

Just a decade ago, buying a house outside the city was perceived as a compromise. Today, it has often become an end in itself – a symbol of comfort, independence and living closer to nature. Suburbanisation, once regarded mainly as a social phenomenon, has become one of the driving forces of the real estate market. It has changed how we think about space, investment, and what truly constitutes a “good place to live.”

What exactly is suburbanisation? Suburbanisation is nothing more than the spreading of cities – the migration of residents from city centres to their outskirts and neighbouring municipalities. The phenomenon is not new, but in Poland it gained momentum after 2000 and the COVID-19 pandemic further accelerated this process. As remote work became a daily reality rather than an exception, many people realised that they no longer needed to live in the city centre to function comfortably in their professional lives. Cities such as Warsaw, Cracow, Wroclaw and Poznan are expanding towards their surrounding municipalities. As a result, entirely new “towns” are emerging, like Lesznowola near Warsaw, Zabierzów near Cracow or Długołęka near Wroclaw. These areas are becoming the new hubs of housing and investment growth.

The reasons why Poles are leaving cities are complex. The simplest one is economic. For the price of a two-room flat in a major city, one can buy a plot and build a house just a few kilometres away. This is followed by the growing desire for space, peace, privacy and contact with nature – values that urban centres often lack. The shift in work culture has also played a major role. The hybrid office model means many people now commute to the city only two or three times a week rather than on a daily basis. In such circumstances, a 30-minute commute is no longer a major obstacle. Increasingly, families conclude that since they already work remotely, they can live where they truly want to. Data published by Statistics Poland (GUS) show that more and more residents are moving from city centres to suburban and rural areas, which is reflected in positive net migration rates in those regions.

What are the implications of suburbanisation for the real estate market? The suburbanisation process has profoundly reorganised the landscape of property development. In suburban municipalities, demand for land and single-family homes is increasing. Developers, who only recently focused on building apartment blocks in city centres, are now investing in small housing estates of terraced or semi-detached houses. These new projects often take the form of semi-urban enclaves – with internal streets, small recreational areas and well-developed infrastructure. Buyers expect not only floor space, but also functionality, accessibility and proximity to services such as nurseries and shops within walking distance. Consequently, self-sufficient micro-communities are emerging around major cities.

However, the phenomenon also has a darker side. The influx of residents to suburban municipalities puts immense pressure on local infrastructure – roads, water systems, schools and public transport. Local governments often struggle to keep up with spatial planning, resulting in chaotic development and losing the urban order. The uncontrolled sprawl of cities is a visible problem. Polish suburbs largely consist of houses built without consistency or coordination, often lacking proper planning and access to basic utilities. The absence of sewage systems, narrow roads and a lack of pavements are everyday realities in many new housing estates.

Suburbanisation also leads to increased car dependency. Each resident of a suburban enclave becomes almost bound to a private vehicle, which translates into traffic congestion, noise and pollution. In the long run, this may reduce the attractiveness of these areas – especially if no corresponding investment in public transport follows. There are also financial consequences. Dispersed development poses challenges for municipalities – higher maintenance costs for infrastructure, difficulties in operating public transport and rising administrative expenses. Without a coherent strategy, suburbanisation may become an economic burden.

In response to these challenges, new trends and directions in suburbanisation have begun to emerge. Fortunately, the concept of sustainable suburbanisation – so-called smart suburbs – is gaining attraction. This approach encourages municipalities and developers to plan space proactively, ensuring that roads, sewage systems, public areas and services are in place before houses are built. Modern suburban estates are meant to be more than just “bedroom communities” – they are designed as places, where social life can thrive. Ecological solutions such as solar panels, rainwater retention systems, community gardens and electric-vehicle charging stations are becoming increasingly common. Good examples include municipalities like Michałowice near Warsaw or Wieliczka near Cracow, where spatial policies aim to combine residential, recreational and service functions. This direction can reconcile market development with care for the environment and urban coherence.

What’s next for suburbanisation? For now, suburbanisation is unlikely to slow down. In the coming years, suburban areas will remain the main sites of residential investment. However, the profile of buyers is changing – fewer are seeking an “escape from the city” and more are consciously choosing a lifestyle that balances nature and infrastructure. Land prices in municipalities well connected to metropolitan areas are rising. There is also a growing share of premium projects – spacious houses with gardens built in standards applied in cities. Developers are learning that suburban clients expect quality, not compromise.

In the long term, however, suburbanisation may face limits. Rising transport and energy costs could encourage some residents to move back closer to city centres. Meanwhile, cities that invest in revitalisation and green spaces may regain much of their lost appeal. The real estate market will become increasingly diverse, encompassing both conscious suburban lifestyles and the return of some residents to urban cores.

Summary

Suburbanisation is now one of the key forces shaping the Polish real estate market. It is no longer a by-product of urban growth – it has become a deliberate life and investment strategy. It offers great potential, but also entails responsibility. If municipalities and developers act wisely, suburbanisation can enhance quality of life by providing more space, greenery and community. But if it continues chaotically, in a few years we may pay the price in congestion, pollution and spatial disorder.

Suburbanisation is no longer a marginal aspect of urban life – it is becoming its future. The key question is whether we will manage to plan the growth of suburbs wisely before they begin to overwhelm the cities themselves.

Karol Kacprzak
AMRON III Project Manager
Specialist in Analysis and System Development

The real estate market in Poland is developing very dynamically and buying, selling, or renting an apartment or house is, for most people, the most important financial decision of their lives. In light of this, the question often arises: is it worth using an agent’s services or is it better to act independently and avoid additional costs? The answer is certainly not clear-cut – it is worth analysing both the advantages and disadvantages of working with a real estate agent.

Who is a real estate agent?

A real estate agent is a person or company that helps with buying, selling, or renting properties. The role of the agent is to find a suitable offer or client, conduct negotiations and provide formal and legal support throughout the transaction.

Advantages of working with a real estate agent

Experience and industry knowledge

An agent knows the realities of the market and can accurately “value” a property, avoiding situations when the price is set too high (and the listing “sits” for months) or too low (leading to financial loss). An experienced broker also understands local trends – he knows, which locations are developing and where prices may rise.

Not everyone feels confident in negotiations. An agent has experience in dealing with buyers and sellers, can find compromises and looks after their client’s interests.

Broad access to offers and clients

Real estate agencies have their own databases and extensive networks of contacts, enabling them to quickly find suitable properties. They also use paid listing services, allowing the offer to reach a larger audience. As a result, sales or rentals are usually faster and smoother than when handled independently.

Negotiations and transaction security

Real estate transactions are prone to formal errors or the signing of unfavourable contracts, which makes an agent’s support very important. A professional agent works with notaries, lawyers, and mortgage advisors, ensuring the client feels secure at every stage of the transaction.

It is often the case that an agent detects irregularities in documents, such as unresolved land ownership issues or hidden debts, protecting the buyer from serious future problems.

Saving time and reducing stress

Buying or selling an apartment requires lots of preparations: listings, photos, arranging viewings, verifying documents and conducting negotiations. It is a time-consuming and patience-demanding process. An agent takes over much of this workload, allowing the client to focus on work or private life.

If the purchase is financed with external institutions, an agent, working with a mortgage advisor, helps to select the most favourable and suitable loan offer. The agent also handles the collection and submission of all necessary documents – from the client to the advisor and then to the bank – ensuring that the entire process runs smoothly and without additional burden.

Disadvantages of using a real estate agency

Additional costs

A broker charges a commission for his services, usually between 1% and 3% of the transaction value. For some, this is a significant expense. In large cities, such as the capital, where a studio apartment can cost even one million PLN, a 3% commission amounts to PLN 30 000 – enough to buy a small used car for the new garage.

Risk of unprofessionalism – “give me the commission and I’ll set up a notary appointment”

Since the deregulation of the profession, many agents with varying levels of competence have entered the market. An unreliable agent may cause problems instead of helping. Often, their role is reduced to presenting the property and arranging a notary appointment, but the job should be much more than that.

An agent should thoroughly examine the property’s legal status, all its advantages and disadvantages, and pass this knowledge on to the client, who may not realize the obstacles involved in buying or selling (e.g. due to unresolved legal issues). Buying a property is a serious investment and when hiring an agent, we expect that their professional expertise will protect us from unpleasant surprises.

“I won’t show you the property until you sign an agreement”

This is something property seekers often hear. For potential buyers, it means a lack of access to key information – listings may include photos of a plot or apartment, but without the exact location.

After calling the agency, it turns out that details will only be disclosed after signing a brokerage agreement. For many buyers, this is a barrier – they do not want to formally commit to an agent just to view a single property, which may not even meet their expectations.

During the search for the ideal apartment, buyers often view many different listings. Does this mean they must sign a separate agreement with each agent for every showing? For many, this is unacceptable – especially when high commissions are involved, which effectively discourage potential clients.

Working “both sides”

It is still a common practice for agents to act “on both sides” – representing both the seller and the buyer (or landlord and tenant) at the same time. While this may seem beneficial for closing a deal efficiently, it raises serious ethical concerns and risks of conflicts of interest.

An agent is obliged to act in the best interest of their client, but when representing both sides, true impartiality is difficult. What becomes crucial, therefore, is transparent communication about such an arrangement and obtaining consent from both parties – only then the brokerage may be considered reliable and fair.

Possibility of selling independently

The development of modern online listing platforms has greatly facilitated private sales or rentals without an agent. With easily accessible services, posting an offer has become simple and intuitive. In many cases, no specialist skills are required – it is enough to prepare a clear description, attach good-quality photos and set a price. What’s more, property owners value the direct contact with potential buyers or tenants, the ability to conduct negotiations themselves and lack of extra costs associated with paying an agent’s commission.

Lack of full control over the process

Some sellers prefer to decide how their property is presented. Working with agents means relying on their style and approach, which may not be comfortable for everyone. This loss of control over the sales process can be frustrating, especially when the owner’s expectations differ from the agent’s methods.

Summary

For some, a real estate agent is an invaluable assistant for others – an unnecessary cost. It is worth perceiving such services as an investment: if an agent helps to secure a higher selling price, avoid legal mistakes and save time, the commission will definitively be worth paying. However, if we feel confident dealing with clients and have enough free time, selling or renting independently can also be a good solution. The final decision should reflect our needs, capabilities and level of comfort in the transaction process.

Joanna Woźniak
Maintenance and Development Specialist

An aging society is increasingly confronted with new everyday challenges. Old age itself can at times be burdensome and public healthcare is unable to keep up with the needs of a rapidly aging patients. This confronts seniors with even greater challenges. Many elderly people live alone, barely make ends meet and are in clear need of support with daily routines, such as shopping. Mundane situations suddenly become so troublesome that they hinder daily functioning.

Seniors have access to several forms of support. These include, among others, social welfare homes, day-care centres, universities of the third age and intergenerational activity centres. All of these forms of support, apart from social welfare homes, require a certain level of activity from seniors, forcing them to leave their homes and interact with other people. Yet, there are individuals who lack the motivation, willingness or simply the ability to participate in such activities. What about them? They either remain within their four walls or spend the rest of their lives in social welfare homes.

From a demographic perspective, our society has undergone structural changes over the past few decades. According to data published by the Central Statistical Office, in 1990 approximately 30% of Poland’s population was of pre-working age, while just under 13% were of post-working age. By 2010, the number of people in pre- and post-working age had equalized and over time the number of those in post-working age increasingly exceeded those in pre-working age. According to 2024 data, as much as 23.8% of the population were people of post-working age (almost one-quarter of society), while the youngest accounted for barely 18%. This structure is not promising, as the overall population of Poland is systematically declining, while the number of retirees and pensioners remains at a similar level. According to Statistics Poland (GUS) data, the number of retirees and pensioners in the period from 1999 to 2024 decreased by only 0.72% and currently stands at 9 384 579 (yes, almost 10 million persons).

Recent months have been a time of political turbulence. We all witnessed the fight for the office of the President of the Republic of Poland. During the heated election campaign, all candidates raised the issue of social and municipal housing. An increased number of municipal apartments would certainly support also seniors, but it does not solve the problem of loneliness or equal access to opportunities for activeness among seniors. The pool of municipal apartments is distributed among various social groups, such as people with extremely low incomes, people with disabilities or graduates of care facilities. This is a form of aid targeted at those most in need, which means that seniors, who already own their own apartments, usually do not qualify. Is there, then, no solution for the large group of seniors who remain in the shadow of their daily needs, overwhelmed by the necessity of maintaining both their apartment and themselves at a minimally decent standard?

One of the currently available options is the so-called reverse mortgage. This solution involves transferring the ownership right to a property to a bank or institution in exchange for a lifetime financial benefit. The main providers of such contracts are mortgage funds, which by the end of 2024 administered only 403 contracts, with just 18 new ones added that year. However, concluding a reverse mortgage agreement with a non-bank institution involves risk, as this area is not regulated by the state. Over the long term, a contract with a bank would be a better solution, but none of the leading banks in Poland currently offer reverse mortgages.

In recent months, a draft law on senior tenancy has been introduced. The idea assumes that a senior owning an apartment located on the third floor or higher in a building with no elevator could apply for a municipal apartment situated on lower floors, or higher floors in a building equipped with an elevator. The condition would be to lease their apartment to the municipality, which would then temporarily sublet it to people waiting for social housing. This programme gives seniors the opportunity to improve their living conditions and reduce barriers that hinder participation in social life, but it does not increase the number of apartments available to the city or municipality. Occupying municipal apartments by seniors would generate longer queues for social housing. Moreover, there is the risk that a senior might want to return to their own apartment (since it would only be a rental agreement), which would create the need to relocate tenants and restore the senior’s apartment to at least its original condition.

A new initiative currently being tested is senior cohousing. This solution assumes housing several unrelated individuals in one municipal apartment. The idea is directed at elderly people who, for various reasons, are no longer able to function in their current place of residence. Shared housing may be a remedy for daily life problems, but it will not be an ideal solution for all seniors. A lack of privacy and indirect dependence on initially strangers may not inspire enthusiasm among many of them. The idea is worth considering, but only as a complement to social policy in situations, when a city or municipality has a sufficiently large pool of social housing. Otherwise, it is worth asking, whether such a large apartment would not be more urgently needed by a large family in a difficult situation.

All of the above-mentioned solutions do not increase the number of apartments available to the city/ municipality and present seniors with challenges on many levels.

The idea of Municipal Senior Homes (MSH) is an original concept directed at seniors, who own their own apartments but need help with daily life. This concept assumes that, as part of city/municipality initiatives aimed at increasing the number of municipal apartments, residential blocks for seniors would be built, where round-the-clock nursing and basic medical care would be available, as well as daytime activities would be organized for seniors. A block built under MSH would resemble those developed by private developers, except that common areas would be adapted for people with disabilities – nothing new, since public facilities such as clinics, offices and other such institutions are already built under such requirements. On the ground floor of the building, commercial and service premises would be located to meet the basic needs of elderly residents. This would generate rental income for the city or municipality. The building would include a primary care physician’s office, where any resident could go if needed. The areas designated for organized activities could be used by institutions such as universities of the third age or activity centres without the need to rent private space.

On what terms would a senior receive such an apartment? The calculation would be simple: an apartment for apartment. A senior, who owns his own apartment, could enter into an agreement with the city or municipality, under which he or she would have lifetime use of an apartment in the Municipal Senior Home in exchange for the property rights to the apartment they currently own.

What are the benefits of such a solution? There are several:

• The city or municipality gains a pool of apartments (those vacated by seniors) that can be allocated for social purposes, including assistance for large families. Seniors often own multi-room apartments that are too large for their needs. As part of the “exchange,” they would receive a smaller apartment, but with a “support package,” i.e. with access to a physician, a nurse and educational and social activities all in one place. When building Municipal Senior Homes, a minimum and maximum usable area of such apartments would be set, e.g. between 30 and 50 sqm. Naturally, most apartments previously occupied by seniors will require renovation or refreshing, but the costs would be lower than constructing equally large new apartments within municipal housing projects. Moreover, the city or municipality becomes the owner of the property. According to forecasts by the Statistics Poland (GUS), by 2050 seniors will account for approximately 40% of the population. Such dynamics mean that the pool of social housing suitable for seniors should systematically increase. If the city or municipality were to build social housing under the current model, the pool of available apartments would be divided among various social groups requiring such assistance.
• The city or municipality becomes directly involved in helping seniors, who are currently left in the shadows. This is support that genuinely improves the seniors’ quality of life, as they are not left without care, enjoy the comfort of living in their own apartment rather than a room in a social welfare home and therefore can retain their independence and autonomy in managing their time. Forms of activity available in community rooms could bring generations together and provide seniors with spaces that were previously beyond their reach. New opportunities would encourage seniors to engage in social events.
• Providing round-the-clock basic medical and nursing care would give seniors a sense of security and ensure assistance in emergencies.
• The cost of maintaining an apartment in a Municipal Senior Home would be lower than in their current residence, both due to the smaller floor area and lower rent compared to housing cooperatives or homeowners’ associations.
• The apartments taken over by the city/municipality would be located in different parts of the city/district, thus avoiding exclusion and marginalization of people using municipal housing in a single concentrated area.
• Within a single investment involving the construction of a Municipal Senior Home, support would be provided to both seniors (who would receive a lifetime right to use an apartment in the Municipal Senior Home) and people in need of municipal housing (who would be allocated the apartment previously owned by the senior).
• Ultimately, a smaller percentage of elderly people would be excluded from social life, their quality of life would improve and this could translate into greater activity on their part and at the end – the better health condition.
• An agreement concluded with the city or municipality would guarantee the security of such a solution, significantly reducing the scale of fraud against seniors.

Demographic changes occurring over the years translate into new aspects that need to be addressed in social life. Adapting to these new realities is not an easy task, particularly from an economic perspective. One issue that has so far been treated marginally is the situation of elderly people, who are unable to live with dignity while supporting themselves and maintaining a home on a modest pension. Another issue is the promise to build a larger number of municipal apartments that would support those most in need. A partial remedy to the above-mentioned problems could be the concept of Municipal Senior Homes. This concept would benefit both seniors, who would gain a more comfortable living space, and municipalities/cities, which would acquire apartments that could be used for communal purposes. The non-concentrated distribution of residents occupying municipal apartments taken over under an agreement between the city/municipality and the senior would blur social disparities among residents. Existing forms of support for seniors overlook those, who, for various reasons, are prisoners of their own apartments. Relinquishing the right to their property in exchange for a lifetime opportunity to use an apartment in a Municipal Senior Home would solve many of the problems elderly people face today.

Through a single investment, cities and municipalities would gain access to secondary-market apartments with a larger floor area than newly built municipal apartments under current practices. The secondary use of apartments within Municipal Senior Homes over time would allow the city/municipality to manage a greater number of apartments than the actual number and size of those built under the programme. A simple calculation illustrates, how cost-effective this solution could be. In 2024, a total of 2 293 apartments were completed in cooperative, municipal, social rental, and company housing. If we assume that 2 200 such apartments will be added annually, then by 2040 the pool will increase to 35 200 units. If the same number of apartments were built under Municipal Senior Homes (MSH), then in addition to 35 000 apartments, the city or municipality would also have access to additional apartments acquired from seniors. Assuming that in the initial phase of the project, half of the MSH apartments would be occupied by seniors, the pool of municipal apartments would increase by over 16 000 units.

The costs associated with a senior’s use of an MSH apartment (i.e. rent) would be determined by the municipality/city. Currently, the social rent rate in Warsaw is PLN 2 per 1 sqm. of usable floor space, while the base rate for apartments included in the city’s housing stock is PLN 13.08 per 1 sqm. For comparison, the average cost borne by an owner in a housing community amounts to PLN 16 – 20 per 1 sqm. of usable floor space. Senior would cover utility bills as in their own apartments and rent would be charged at the rate established by the city/municipality.

For seniors, the benefit of living in an MSH would be peace of mind about their future and personal safety, while for municipalities and cities, it would mean access to a greater number of apartments for social purposes. The above concept may raise many doubts and generate dozens of questions. The most important, however, is whether such a solution would spark interest among the beneficiaries.

Agata Wróblewska
Maintenance and Development Specialist
Certified Property Appraiser (License No. 8247)

The first half of 2025 brought a breakthrough on the Polish real estate and mortgage markets, ending a prolonged period of high interest rate policy. After a long wait for signs of monetary easing, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) made decisions that set a new direction. Although the nominal interest rate cuts in May and July 2025 were moderate, their significance went far beyond a simple adjustment of values. The MPC’s resolutions acted as a catalyst, sparking optimism and a revival that may reshape the market.

Groundbreaking MPC Meetings

At its meeting on May 6-7, 2025, the Monetary Policy Council decided to cut the NBP reference rate by 0.50 percentage points, to 5.25%. This was the first such change since October 2023, interpreted as a strong signal that the rate-hiking cycle had definitively ended.

Two months later, at its meeting on July 1-2, 2025, the MPC took another, though smaller, step, reducing the reference rate by a further 0.25 percentage points, to 5.00%. A total reduction of 0.75 percentage points within just two months was interpreted by the market as the beginning of a new, systematic easing cycle that would unlock the “dormant” demand. These decisions, supported by forecasts of falling inflation, acted not only as a nominal adjustment, but above all as a psychological impulse that influenced the expectations of borrowers and banks. On September 3, 2025, the MPC decided on yet another rate cut of 0.25 percentage points. The reference rate now stands at 4.75%.

The following analysis presents calculations based on the first two cuts: those of May and July.

Key effects for borrowers

The MPC’s decisions translated into tangible savings for holders of variable-rate loans, primarily indexed to WIBOR. Although the effects of cuts appear with a delay due to the setting periods of reference indices (WIBOR 3M or 6M), relief for household budgets is already noticeable.

A simulation for a sample loan of PLN 500 000 taken for 30 years perfectly illustrates the scale of change. Before May 2025, with the reference rate at 5.75%, the monthly instalment amounted to approx. PLN 3 382. After the May cut, which reduced the rate to 5.25%, the instalment fell to PLN 3 171 (a decrease of over 6%), meaning a saving of PLN 211 per month. After the July cut to 5.00%, the instalment dropped further to PLN 3 100, i.e. less by 8.3%. The combined saving thus amounted to PLN 282 per month, or nearly PLN 3 400 annually.

Equally important, or perhaps even more significant, is the improvement in creditworthiness. Falling interest rates lower the critical threshold a potential borrower must meet to obtain financing. A reduction in rates by 1 percentage point can increase credit capacity by as much as 10-12%.

The creditworthiness of a person, who in April could qualify for a PLN 500 000 loan, rose by approx. PLN 26 000 after the May cut and by a further PLN 14 000 after the July cut, resulting in a total increase of more than PLN 40 000, i.e. 8%. This change is the most fundamental mechanism driving current demand, as those previously excluded from the market have now gained the access to mortgage loans. Meanwhile, those, who already had such capacity, can now look for larger or better-located properties.

TABLE 1: IMPACT OF NBP INTEREST RATE CUTS ON LOAN INSTALMENTS AND CREDIT CAPACITY

Period	Reference rate	Monthly instalment	Total instalment change	Credit capacity	Total capacity increase
Before May 2025	5.75%	PLN 3 382	–	PLN 500 000	–
After May cut	5.25%	PLN 3 171	– PLN 211	PLN 525 997	+ PLN 25 997
After July cut	5.00%	PLN 3 100	– PLN 282	PLN 540 221	+ PLN 40 221

Assumptions: mortgage granted in March 2025 for 30 years, LtV = 80%, equal instalments

source: own elaboration

Clear growth on the mortgage market

Interest rate cuts have revived the mortgage market. According to AMRON Centre data, in Q2 2025, 55.5 thousand new housing loans worth PLN 25.607 billion were granted, i.e. more respectively by 22% and nearly 29%, compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Meanwhile, data from the Credit Information Bureau (BIK) show that between March and June 2025, the number of mortgage loan applications reached 111.74 thousand, exceeding 100 thousand for the first time since Q4 2023. This represents a 29% increase year to year.

The surge in demand was already visible in May, when 38.63 thousand people applied for mortgage loans, i.e. more by 8.4% month to month and more than 43% year to year. In July, the number of applications rose again – by 9.3% month to month and 33.6% year to year, up to 40.93 thousand. Such a high figure had not been recorded since September 2021.

TABLE 2: DYNAMICS OF DEMAND FOR MORTGAGE LOANS IN Q1 AND Q2 2025

Period	Number of loans granted (thousand units)	Value of loans granted (PLN billion)	y/y change in number of loans granted	y/y change in value of loans granted	Number of applications (thousand units) acc. to BIK	y/y change in number of applications acc. to BIK
Q1 2025	48.1	20.397	-25.41%	-24.10%	98.36	+24.68%
Q2 2025	55.5	24.607	+22.20%	+28.71%	111.74	+28.73%
July 2025	no data	no data	no data	no data	40.93	+33.63%

source: AMRON-SARFiN Report 2/2025, BIK

Price stabilization

Housing prices in major cities stopped rising dynamically and in some locations small declines, long awaited by potential buyers, even appeared. According to AMRON Centre data, in Q2 2025, the average transaction price per square meter in Cracow fell by almost 3% compared to Q1 2025, in Warsaw by 1.7%, and in Poznan by 1.3%. In the remaining three of the six largest agglomerations, only symbolic increases were recorded. Year to year, housing prices still rose, but at a much slower pace than in previous periods.

However, the decline in average prices was mainly driven by the secondary market. In Q2 2025, prices of “second-hand” flats in the six largest cities collectively fell by 1.7% quarter to quarter. This indicates that private sellers on the secondary market are becoming more flexible in their price expectations, reacting to weaker demand from previous months. Meanwhile, on the primary market, a 2.4% increase was recorded. This is surprising, as in 2024 this segment grew more slowly than the secondary market. However, price changes are selective and often result from the introduction of more expensive new projects rather than across-the-board increases. Despite the rise on the primary market, overall housing price growth in Poland in Q2 2025 was the slowest among Central and Eastern European countries.

In July, housing offer prices also showed only minor fluctuations. According to data from the Morizon portal, both primary and secondary markets in the six largest agglomerations recorded minimal monthly changes, within the range of +/- 1%.

As can be seen, after a period of high volatility, the housing market is finally stabilizing. Prices have stopped rising, making homeownership more attainable than before.

Increased developers’ activity

Developers remained cautious in Q2 2025, still struggling with high construction costs and maintaining conservative strategies. However, July data from Statistics Poland (GUS) show a clear rebound. Developers started construction of almost 12 000 dwellings (+35% month to month) and obtained nearly 17 000 building permits (+50% month to month). They also completed 11 500 dwellings, i.e. 13% more than in June.

The halt in declines in July suggests a shift in developers’ approach. It seems their earlier concerns about future sales have given way to renewed investment activity in anticipation of higher demand on the primary market in autumn.

DEVELOPER SECTOR PERFORMANCE

source: GUS

Unlocking frozen demand

On the primary market, July 2025 was a time of a dynamic rise in sales activity on the seven largest housing markets. According to data from the Otodom portal, 4 000 dwellings were sold that month, up by one third month to month and nearly 60% year to year. Supply also increased – the number of housing units launched for sale reached 4 300 (+86% m/m), while the total number of dwellings on offer hit a record hight of almost 63 000 (+28% y/y).

The July revival also extended to the secondary market, where buyer activity exceeded seasonal norms. On the seven largest markets, the number of responses to listings on Otodom rose by 14% month on month, reaching 87 000 inquiries. Supply on these markets remained stable. Some owners are holding back from selling, anticipating further rate cuts and higher valuations, which explains the lower year-to-year supply.

The surge in demand stems from a unique combination of factors. Beyond seasonality, which usually drives higher activity in Q2, and the direct impact of rate cuts that improved financing conditions, two other factors proved to be of a key importance. First, the continued growth of real wages. In H1 2025, real purchasing power rose by 4.2% year on year. Second, paradoxically positive, was the lack of a new support programme, such as “0% Loan.” Previously, many potential buyers had postponed decisions, waiting for government subsidies. When it became clear that no new state-funded programme would be introduced, buyers were forced to act based on current market conditions. This shift in expectations from “waiting for support” to “acting under better market conditions” unlocked dormant capital.

Summary

The interest rate cuts of May and July 2025 were a crucial psychological impulse for the Polish market. The MPC’s cautious decisions confirmed the return to a disinflationary path and sent a clear signal that financing conditions will gradually improve.

The current situation represents a unique combination of stable prices and better lending conditions, creating a “window of opportunity” for buyers. The growing number of loan applications, increased traffic on property listing sites and rising sales are clear signs that the market has responded to changes, while forecasts of further rate cuts suggest that demand is only beginning to gain momentum. Importantly, this is happening with no government subsidy programmes for housing loans. Although it is still too early to declare a lasting revival, recent data are highly promising.

Agnieszka Pilcicka
Senior Real Estate Market Analyst

The origins of artificial intelligence date back to the 1950s – to the work of Alan Turing and the Dartmouth Conference (1956), during which the very concept of AI (Artificial Intelligence) was defined. However, it is only in the past several years, with the growth of computing power, machine learning methods and most importantly, access to vast datasets, that AI has reached a level enabling it to significantly influence reality. Today, AI is present in many areas of our lives: in medicine it supports diagnostics and treatment, in the automotive industry it powers autonomous driving systems, in finance it manages investment portfolios and detects fraud attempts, in logistics it is used to optimize deliveries, in the creative sector it can generate texts, images and music, in education it enables personalized learning paths, in retail it provides precise customer targeting. AI is thus already a tangible tool reshaping the world’s functioning and its potential for future transformation appears inexhaustible. The AI revolution will not bypass the real estate market, a sector often regarded as slow to adopt technological change. In the coming years, artificial intelligence may revolutionize virtually every element of this market – from the valuation process to property management, brokerage and even the development process.

One of areas within the real estate sector, where AI is already being increasingly applied, is the automation of property valuation. AI enables quick estimation of property value using large datasets and advanced machine learning algorithms. The most commonly used models are so-called Automated Valuation Models (AVMs), which rely on analysing property attributes such as location, area, number of rooms, year of construction and so on. Methods employed include linear regression, decision trees, random forests and neural networks, capable of including complex and non-linear relationships between variables. The advantages of using AI in property valuation lie primarily in speed, scalability and the ability to analyse large, complex datasets, which helps to reduce subjectivity and human error. In the future, valuations may also incorporate satellite images, drone data, IoT (Internet of Things) sensors monitoring building conditions, or even weather data to reflect the impact of climate on property values. Naturally, for various reasons (including regulatory ones), these models will not fully replace expert appraisals, particularly in case of properties with atypical characteristics or in unique locations.

Property management, particularly of commercial properties, is becoming increasingly complex due to the growing number of facilities, the intricacy of infrastructure and the high expectations of both tenants and owners. AI-based solutions are increasingly being deployed to streamline and optimize management processes, minimize costs and maintain or improve service quality. AI is primarily used here to automate routine tasks – machine learning systems can automatically monitor the technical condition of buildings, analyse data from IoT sensors and devices, detect malfunctions and even predict them. Another significant application of AI in property management is energy consumption optimization. Intelligent Building Management Systems (BMS) using AI algorithms can analyse energy usage, regulate lighting, heating and air conditioning in real time, adapting them to users’ current needs. This results in substantial energy savings and improved comfort for building occupants. AI is also applied in lease management and tenant services. Chatbots and automated customer service systems can respond to tenant inquiries 24/7, log and track service requests and schedule maintenance visits. Moreover, these systems can analyse tenants’ preferences and behaviours, allowing better tailoring of additional services, thereby improving customer satisfaction. An important element is also the analysis of market and financial data. AI enables fast processing of information on property values, market trends, rent payments or operating costs. As a result, property managers can make more informed decisions regarding investments, leasing strategies or budget optimization.

Brokerage in real estate transactions also holds significant potential for AI-driven transformation. With substantial improvement in access to information (both in ease and speed), the role of brokers is likely to shift more toward advisory services and transaction facilitation. The future will belong to those, who can leverage modern technologies, such as property presentation and showcasing its potential. One of the most important applications of AI in brokerage will be the personalization of property listings. Advanced algorithms will be able to analyse customer preferences, past behaviours and purchasing profiles to propose properties that best match their expectations. This will make the property search process more efficient and less time-consuming. Brokers will gain the ability to present clients with curated offers more quickly, increasing the chances of successful transactions. Additionally, generative AI is already able to create realistic visualizations of interiors or entire buildings even from floor plans. In the future, “virtual staging” may become the standard, enabling clients to view properties in multiple design or lighting variants. As technology develops and data accessibility increases, analytical tools supporting real estate agents’ work will gain in importance. AI, through machine learning algorithms and large-scale data processing, will enable automatic analysis of listings, verification of their value and forecasting of market trends. This will allow for more accurate property selection and recommendations of the most suitable offers to clients. Faster access to high-quality information may in practice mean that the concept of a “market opportunity” will fade, as the best offers will disappear almost instantly. This could significantly reduce the ability of so-called “opportunity hunters” and flippers, for whom the reaction speed has so far been a key advantage. AI may also support brokers by automating marketing activities. AI-based systems can generate property descriptions, optimize social media advertising campaigns and manage client communications. Such solutions will not only improve customer service quality, but also reduce the workload of agents, enabling them to focus on more complex and demanding aspects of their work.

Transformation can also be expected not only in sales, but also in the rental housing market. Thanks to AI, landlords and brokers will be able to set rents in real time based on current demand, seasonality or events in a given city. This may lead to greater price volatility and reduced predictability for tenants, while at the same time enabling landlords to maximize profits. AI can also support the tenant verification process, contract signing and payment monitoring, which increases security, but also brings greater automation into the landlord – tenant relationship.

These are, of course, only the fundamental aspects of AI implementation in the real estate market. Beyond market participants, such as appraisers, brokers or managers, AI’s impact will certainly extend to all related professions and industries – developers, who will be able to more accurately forecast demand and design investments suited to client preferences, while also facing rising competition and likely margin reductions, architects, for whom AI brings the potential for a true revolution, as well as banks, insurers and the construction sector. Over the next 5 – 10 years, AI will become an integral part of the real estate market, influencing every segment – from investment planning, through sales and rental, to property management. Companies that implement these technologies early may gain an advantage, but success will require combining technological innovation with an ethical and transparent approach to clients. These areas hold the greatest challenges of AI adoption. Data monopolization, flawed data, algorithmic errors excluding or disadvantaging certain market participants, or privacy issues are just some of them. Therefore, AI is – and should remain in the future – merely a tool to enable more effective work for professionals operating on this market, and additionally subject to critical oversight. After all, property valuation or sales are not only about hard data, but also about soft factors – emotions and subjective perceptions.

Jerzy Ptaszyński
Research and Market Service Director

As of early 2026, the Polish spatial planning system will undergo a significant transformation. The currently used “studies of conditions and directions of spatial development” (SUiKZP), which have so far been informal in nature, will be replaced by a new act of local law. The reform is intended to bring order to local spatial policy, curb chaotic development and eliminate speculative practices related to obtaining zoning decisions (WZ). As a result, investors and landowners will face an entirely new system, in which decisions will only be issued for areas designated by the municipality as suitable for development and their validity will be limited to five years.

The general plan will become the sole fundamental planning document for each municipality. According to current legislation, it must be adopted no later than on June 30, 2026 (this deadline was extended to provide a transitional period and avoid legal chaos). The general plan formalizes the division of a municipality’s territory into functional zones: residential (single-family and multi-family), service, agricultural, green and recreational. Most importantly, it designates the “development completion areas” (OUZ) – the only areas where WZ decisions may be issued. Since the general plan constitutes local law, its provisions are binding without the need for local zoning plans. This gives municipalities significant authority in shaping spatial policy and deciding, where development may or may not take place.

Starting from January 1, 2026, all new zoning decisions (WZ) will be issued exclusively for development completion areas (OUZ) designated in the general plan and their validity will be limited to five years from the date they become final. This marks the end of indefinite WZ decisions, which had given investors the certainty that a project could be implemented on a given site, even if construction was delayed. In practice, investors who manage to submit an application before the end of 2025 may still receive a decision with unlimited validity. However, all decisions issued after the new regulations take effect will be valid for only five years. New WZ decisions will only be obtainable, if the plot lies within an OUZ and the planned project aligns with the land use set out in the municipal general plan. Municipalities will gain tools to define development parameters such as minimum plot size, number of storeys and development intensity.

The method for defining development completion areas (OUZ) is detailed in the Regulation of the Minister of Development and Technology dated May 2, 2024 on the method of designating development completion areas in the municipal general plan. According to the regulation, an OUZ may include a group of at least five buildings (industrial buildings classified under KŚT code 101, retail and service buildings – 103, office buildings – 105, hospitals and other healthcare facilities – 106, educational, scientific, cultural, and sports buildings – 107, other non-residential buildings – 109, residential buildings – 110), with each building located no more than 100 metres from the next. The boundary of the area is initially marked by a curve drawn 50 metres from the outline of the buildings. Then, the areas with a surface not exceeding 5 000 sqm. limited by this curve are enclosed. The final step involves drawing a curve 40 metres inward from the previously marked boundary. This inner section is then subtracted from the total area, resulting in the final OUZ designation. This procedure means that not every dense grouping of buildings will automatically qualify as an OUZ – municipalities will independently decide, where to establish them. If a municipality fails to designate an OUZ, this may result in a situation, when the owner of a given plot will be unable to construct any buildings, even if the plot lies within a municipality without a local plan.

The reform paves the way for clearer, yet more restrictive rules. For plots that previously relied on standard WZ decisions (areas without an adopted local spatial development plan), the change could mean that from mid-2026, new WZ decisions will not be obtainable if the municipality has not designated an OUZ. In regions with limited local plan coverage, many plots may lose their investment potential. Moreover, the five-year validity limit will mean that multi-stage developments will require more precise scheduling. Once a WZ decision expires, a new application will have to be submitted, even if the project has not changed.

The best way to secure an investment is to act already in 2025 by submitting a WZ application as soon as possible, so that the request may be processed under the current regulations and benefit from indefinite validity. It is equally important to monitor progress on the general plan – it is advisable to participate in public consultations and express interest to ensure that your plot is included in an OUZ.

The general plan will not replace the Local Spatial Development Plan (MPZP), but it will complement it. The general plan is a new strategic planning document that outlines the broad directions of a municipality’s spatial development. The MPZP will remain a tool used to define precisely, what can be built on a specific site. The key difference between the general plan and the MPZP is that the general plan is mandatory for all municipalities and defines planning zones and development frameworks, whereas the MPZP is an act of local law containing detailed provisions for specific areas. The MPZP will have to comply with the provisions of the general plan.

Summary

The planning reform means that as of January 1, 2026, new WZ decisions will only be possible within OUZ areas and will be limited to five years. By July 1, 2026, municipalities will have to adopt general plans, without which no new WZ decisions may be issued for areas not covered by OUZ. The reform places municipalities in the role of decision-makers, but also requires investors to be more proactive and strategic in their planning. Those, who take advantage of the transition period and submit applications under the old rules, will gain an advantage – especially in case of large, long-term investments.

Klaudia Jastrzębska
Buildings Database Project Coordinator

 

In recent years, there has been increasing discussion about the need to protect the environment and implement eco-friendly solutions. This is no longer just a matter of trends or fear of ongoing climate change, but also of EU regulations, specifically the European Green Deal, launched in 2019, and the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), adopted at the end of 2022. This directive obliges companies to report on ESG factors – environmental (E), social (S), and governance (G) criteria, used to assess a company’s impact on the environment, society and corporate governance, enabling the identification of risks and opportunities associated with business activity.

For companies in the construction sector, meeting environmental criteria has become crucial. In addition to complying with EU standards, it contributes to the prestige of an investment. On project websites, one can often find sections dedicated to the environment, where developers highlight the energy efficiency of buildings and environmentally respectful construction as advantages. In some cases, developers showcase their sustainable building certification as evidence of eco-friendly practices and compliance with ESG criteria. Sustainable building certifications are of global nature, meaning that each type of certification features a uniform classification of buildings worldwide.

The most popular certification system in Poland is BREEAM (Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method), a system originating from the United Kingdom. The BREEAM assessment includes ten categories: management, health and wellbeing, energy, transport, water, materials, waste, land use and ecology, pollution, and innovation. The level of compliance is indicated by certification ratings. There are five levels, and residential buildings in Poland have been awarded certificates at four of them, from the lowest: Pass, Good, Very Good, Excellent.

According to the database of certified buildings maintained by the Polish Green Building Council (PLGBC), the majority of residential projects with sustainable building certification are located in Warsaw. It is therefore worthwhile to focus on investments in the capital. For the purposes of this publication, average apartment prices were compared by BREEAM certification level, as well as average prices for BREEAM – certified investments versus those without certification. The pricing data is based on the price per square meter from primary market sales agreements, collected in the AMRON System. To ensure the results are reliable, only investments located in the same district and completed in the same year were compared.

Investments certified at the Pass and Good levels completed in 2024 in the Praga – Południe district were analysed, as well as investments certified at the Good and Very Good levels completed in 2021 in Mokotów. In Praga – Południe, the average price for Pass – certified investments was approximately PLN 12 800, while for Good – certified investments it was around PLN 14 000 – nearly 10% higher. In Mokotów, the average price for Good – certified investments was approximately PLN 14 000, while for Very Good – certified projects, it was slightly, i.e. by approx. PLN 200 lower.. However, when the analysis was narrowed to projects by a single developer, the average price for Very Good – certified investments turned out to be slightly higher, i.e. by approx. PLN 100.

The analysis also included certified and non – certified investments completed in 2021 in Mokotów. The average price for certified investments was about PLN 14 000, while for non – certified projects it was approximately PLN 10 800, which was less by over 20%.

The conducted calculations show that the level of certification can have a significant impact on apartment prices, though not necessarily in every case. It is possible that only projects with the lowest certification level lose value, while the others may maintain similar values regardless of certification level. It is also possible that investors assess the impact of certification level on investment value differently. However, simply holding a sustainable building certificate is likely one of the main reasons for increasing market value, which was probably also the case of the 2021 investments in Mokotów. This trend is not surprising, considering the cost of obtaining such a certificate, which can range from several thousand to several tens of thousands of zlotys. Furthermore, the use of energy-efficient solutions in certified buildings contributes to lower operating costs for residents, which undoubtedly encourage developers to raise sale prices for apartments in “green buildings.”

Mateusz Palczewski
Junior Specialist, GIS Analyst

In recent years, the Polish real estate market has experienced unprecedented changes that have significantly influenced the housing preferences of Polish citizens. Rising inflation, sharp interest rate increases and a consequent drastic decrease in mortgage availability have forced many people to revise their plans. An analysis of market data from recent years reveals a clear shift from the long long-dominant ownership paradigm to the growing rental popularity. In 2023, the number of taxpayers reporting rental income increased by 22%, and between 2019 and 2023, this figure increased by nearly 50%.

CHART 1. NUMBER OF TAXPAYERS REPORTING RENTAL INCOME

source: own study based on data from the Ministry of Finance

A decade of ownership – a look into the past (2019 – 2021)

For many years, owning a housing in Poland was considered not only as a life goal, but almost a standard – a dream pursued by entire generations. Property purchase was treated as the safest form of securing the future, building capital, and creating intergenerational wealth. Low interest rates, a stable macroeconomic environment, and relatively affordable property prices in relation to the growing incomes of Poles all encouraged homeownership. A housing loan was easily available, and its monthly instalment was often significantly lower than the rent of a property.

According to data from the Polish Bank Association (SARFiN System), at that time, banks recorded high numbers of granted housing loans. In 2019 – 2020, slightly over 200 thousand loan agreements were concluded annually and in 2021 – as much as 256 thousand. According to NBP data, 80% of transactions on the housing market were supported by bank loans. Bank margins were low and the down payments were often small.

Demand for apartments exceeded supply, leading to a systematic increase in prices, both on the primary and secondary markets. According to AMRON Centre data, between 2019 and 2021 the average transaction price per 1 sqm. of an apartment in Warsaw increased by almost 35%. In Cracow, Wroclaw, and Gdansk the dynamics were similar and in Lodz, an increase by 46% was recorded. Interestingly, despite such a significant increase, the housing affordability index, i.e. the ratio of price to average incomes, remained relatively favourable, which only fuelled the demand spiral.

At the same time, less interest in long-term rental was observed. In 2019, in many cities, especially outside the student season, the rental market was stable and the pressure on rent increases was lower, as a significant percentage of people aspiring to their own apartment could afford a mortgage loan. However, the outbreak of the pandemic in early 2020 led to greater caution among market participants, and the drop in tenants caused by the outflow of students, seasonal workers, and the introduction of remote work led to a correction in rental prices in Poland’s largest cities.

At that time, one belief prevailed: “it’s better to pay off your own than to pay someone else.” Real estate was considered as a safe haven for capital – both by private individuals and investors, who began mass-buying apartments for long-term or short-term rental.

Turning point – 2022 and its consequences

After a record-breaking year 2021, the situation on the housing market began to change rapidly. 2022 was a turning point both for buyers and for developers.

A series of increases in the National Bank of Poland’s interest rates (from 0.10% in October 2021 to 6.75% in September 2022) aiming at reducing inflation, along with new requirements from the Financial Supervision Authority’s Recommendation S (the obligation for banks to include an extra 5 pp interest rate buffer) had a direct impact on the mortgage market. Poles’ creditworthiness dropped dramatically – a person, who previously could borrow PLN 500-600 thousand, was suddenly qualified for a loan half that amount. At the same time, rapidly rising maintenance costs and high housing prices significantly reduced housing affordability.

As a result, the number of newly granted housing loans decreased rapidly. Quarterly numbers of new housing loans at the turn of 2022 and 2023 were by 70% lower in comparison to the peak of 2021, and the annual result of 126 thousand new loan agreements concluded in 2022 was by 50% lower compared to the previous year and at the same time the lowest in 20 years. Demand for dwellings weakened and developers began to limit new investments. Some planned projects were suspended or postponed.

Rapidly rising mortgage interest rates – from 2.86% in Q1 2021 to 9.29% in Q4 2022 (according to NBP data) – had a direct impact on monthly instalments, which for many borrowers increased by as much as 100%. In case of a standard housing loan for PLN 300 thousand with a repayment period of 25 years, an increase in interest rates by several percentage points meant an additional cost of PLN 1 000 – 1 500 per month. For people, who took out loans in 2020 – 2021, when interest rates were still at record-low levels, such an increase was a shock. Many borrowers who initially enjoyed low repayments suddenly found themselves in a difficult financial situation.

After several quarters of dynamic changes, with reduced demand and supply (lower number of offers on both the primary and secondary markets), the housing market gradually began to stabilize. It should be pointed out, however, that this equilibrium meant not only price stabilization (at the level achieved at the turn of 2021 and 2022) but also a decrease in the number of transactions. The ongoing price growth, which had lasted for several years, began to slow significantly and in some locations and market segments, even slight corrections were observed. This phenomenon mainly affected apartments that were previously significantly overvalued, especially those in older buildings or locations with lower investment potential.

It is worth noting that despite price drops in selected locations, in other ones – particularly on the primary market – prices continued to rise. The still high demand for apartments in good locations, as well as problems with the availability of land for new investments, had a major impact here. Furthermore, developers, forced to increase prices due to rising construction costs (building materials, labour), continued their investments, even though the market was becoming more and more demanding day by day.

Meanwhile, the rental market experienced a revival. Many potential buyers who lost creditworthiness had to postpone their apartment purchase plans, and renting has become their only real housing option out of necessity. This demand was further increased by refugees from Ukraine. Moreover, the loosening of pandemic restrictions and the return of students to stationary education, as well as the partial shift away from remote work, increased the demand for long-term rental of apartments. All these factors led to demand for rental significantly exceeding supply, resulting in rent increases – in the period of the largest growths, i.e. from Q2 2021 to Q3 2022, in some cities, it was even 30-40%. It is worth mentioning that the average rent for a two-room apartment in Warsaw with approximately 45 sqm. of floor area increased by 35% during this period (excluding administrative fees and operating costs), while the instalment of a loan granted for the purchase of the same apartment (for 25 years, with LTV = 80%) more than doubled. As a result of these changes at the turn of 2021-2022, the ratio of the average apartment rent to the loan instalment in Poland’s largest cities fell below 1, meaning the loan instalment exceeded the cost of renting. This can be seen in Chart 2, showing how the relative attractiveness of purchasing compared to renting changed from a financial perspective.

CHART 2. THE RATIO OF THE AVERAGE APARTMENT RENT TO THE LOAN INSTALMENT

* Value 1 means that loan instalment = rent, value above 1 – loan instalment < rent, value below 1 – loan instalment > rent.

** Assumptions: rent and purchase cost of an apartment with a floor area of ​​45 sqm, loan granted for 25 years with LTV 80%.

source: own study based on data from NBP and AMRON Centre

Current status (end of 2023 – first half of 2025)

At the turn of 2023 – 2024, a rebuilding of mortgage demand was noted. The ‘Safe Loan 2%’ programme, introduced in response to high interest rates and housing prices, allowed some people who previously lacked creditworthiness to consider buying their own apartment again. However, after the government subsidy pool was exhausted, demand fell again. Since Q2 2024, banks have been granting approximately 45-48 thousand housing loans quarterly, which – if it maintains this level – will allow for reaching approximately 180 thousand new loans in 2025, i.e. the so-called ‘organic level’ of the mortgage market that the Polish banking sector is able to maintain without additional government support.

The rental market was returning to balance after a period of increased demand resulting from the war in Ukraine. Although rent increases have clearly slowed down, its level remained significantly higher than before 2022. This is due to a limited supply of apartments for rent (some investors may have withdrawn from the short-term rental market, but this is insufficient to meet long-term demand) combined with demand that was reduced in comparison to 2022 but remained at a high level. Additionally, high property maintenance costs, including increases in electricity and heating prices, as well as municipal services, mean that apartment owners have no space to reduce rents.

The structure of tenants has also changed. More and more people who previously planned to buy their own apartment are renting for longer than they initially anticipated. This affects both young people entering the labour market and families. Importantly, rising rents are an increasing share of household budgets. In Poland’s largest cities, where the concentration of rental demand is the highest, the average rent for an apartment constitutes over 40% of the median net salary. Such an expense is a significant challenge, especially for low-income people, making it difficult to save for a down payment or simply to function stably.

Investing in apartments for rent in Poland remains attractive. For investors with available funds, stable rents and relatively small changes in property prices (compared to previous years) mean that purchasing an apartment for rent, despite lower profitability than in previous years, can still be an attractive alternative. In the face of declining returns from bonds and other financial instruments, real estate is still considered a safe form of capital investment.

Recent interest rate cuts by the Monetary Policy Council (by 0.5 percentage points in May and by 0.25 percentage points in July 2025) increased creditworthiness and lowered monthly mortgage instalments, which should stimulate demand and increase the number of transactions on the real estate market. For the rental market, the main effect will be a partial outflow of tenants towards purchasing their own apartments, which should maintain rent stability or even cause a slight declines. However, the long-term impact on rents will depend on whether the increase in dwellings prices does not outweigh the reduction in loan costs, which could again limit ownership availability and sustain demand for rental.

Conclusions

Market data from recent years indicates a noticeable change in Poles’ housing preferences, driven by economic challenges. From a culture of ownership, there has been a slow shift towards a greater share of rental in the housing structure (although the rental market in Poland is still small in comparison to other countries – according to Eurostat data, in 2024, rented dwellings in Poland accounted for only 13% of the housing stock), which was not always a conscious choice, but often a necessity.

Key observations:

1. Housing loan availability is a determinant: It is creditworthiness, not just the willingness to own, that determines the ability to purchase apartments. Fluctuations in interest rates and creditworthiness have a direct impact on the number of transactions on the primary and secondary markets.
2. The rental market is a buffer with growing problems: It has become a buffer for those who cannot or do not want to buy an apartment. Its importance is growing, and consequently the pressure on rent increases. The current level of Poles’ income burden from housing costs (often exceeding 40%) is alarming and indicates a deepening problem with housing affordability. This situation may lead to further impoverishment of parts of society and delay economic development.
3. Housing policy challenges: The current situation questions the long-term effectiveness of programs that support only purchasing. A balanced approach is needed, which also includes the development of a stable and affordable rental market, rather than just focusing on housing loans. Without comprehensive actions that take into account both the supply and the improvement of the population’s purchasing power in the context of housing costs, the problem of housing affordability will intensify.

Agnieszka Pilcicka
Real Estate Market Senior Analyst

The housing problem in Poland is a real pain point for young people, affecting many aspects of their lives – from decisions about starting a family to freedom in job searching or access to education. High prices, ownership culture and shortages in social housing create a complex picture of the situation where it’s increasingly difficult to get one’s own place. As a result, more and more people aged 25-34 live with their parents and this phenomenon is becoming a permanent element not only of the Polish social landscape – it’s a trend visible throughout Europe and even worldwide. The terms “nesters”, “bamboccioni” (from Italian: “adult babies”), and “kidults” (from English: “adult children”) describe young adults, who live with their parents or move back after some time of independent living.

According to the GUS report “Poland in the European Union 2024”, in 2023, as many as 52.9 percent of Poles aged 25-34 lived with their parents. The study analysed the so-called “nesting indicator”. Based on this, European Union countries were divided into five groups. Poland – alongside Italy, Portugal, Greece, Slovakia and Croatia – was placed in the group with the highest percentage of such people, ranging from 50 to 64.3 percent. In Scandinavian countries, the smallest percentage of young adults live with their parents – in the case of Finland and Sweden, it’s only 3.4 to 9.9 percent of people in this age group.

Young Polish men and women live with their parents longer mainly for two reasons. On one hand, it’s a cultural issue: in Poland, we have a strong belief in the importance of close family ties and supporting children. On the other hand, problems on the housing market play a key role. We’re talking about difficulties such as very high real estate prices, high rental prices, lack of available housing in rural areas, low availability of mortgage loans, as well as lack of state-subsidized housing, which make it difficult for young people to become independent.

Although “nesting” is not a new phenomenon, the COVID-19 pandemic significantly deepened it. Many people lost sources of income or had to interrupt their studies and return to family homes. Additionally, anxiety caused by the war in Ukraine and mass immigration of families from Ukraine only strengthened the sense of uncertainty about the future.

Young people’s decision to buy an apartment depends on many factors, but currently the most important are very high real estate prices and high mortgage loan instalments. Poles struggle with some of the highest mortgage loan rates in the European Union, with interest rates exceeding 7%, which significantly surpasses the EU average of about 3.5%. High interest rates and high bank margins lead to decreased creditworthiness, resulting in reduced possibilities for apartment purchases.

For young people, a major obstacle in applying for a mortgage loan has been the mandatory requirement to have a down payment, introduced by the Polish Financial Supervision Authority. Currently, one must have an amount constituting 10 to 20 percent of the property’s value, which means the necessity of accumulating significant savings. An additional problem is the form of employment – young people working very often on civil law contracts usually have lower creditworthiness.

That’s exactly why so many young Poles don’t buy apartments. Above all, they can’t afford it. Even if they were able to obtain a loan, the monthly instalments are so high that they’re afraid to take on such a financial commitment.

The overwhelming majority of households in Poland occupy owner-occupied housing. Eurostat data shows that as many as approx. 87 percent of apartments in Poland are private properties, over 13 percent of which were bought on credit. One of the key reasons, why the housing market in Poland looks the way it does, is the strong drive to possess private property. There’s a widespread belief that young people, entering adulthood, should decide to buy their own place, and long-term apartment rental often meets with negative reception. In Western countries, young people more often opt for mobility and believe that owning their own apartment or house may limit them in some way. In Poland, however, the drive to own real estate is strongly rooted – it’s a dream passed down from generation to generation and treated as an important element of life stabilization.

This pressure, combined with current economic conditions make many young people forced to take out a loan in purpose to buy a housing. The report “Happy Home. Housing To Be or Not To Be” prepared by the Otodom webservice presents the profile of a typical Polish borrower. It shows that the vast majority of young people, wanting to buy their own apartment or house, must rely on a mortgage loan – as many as 87 percent of people aged 26-34 indicate that this is the only realistic path to property ownership for them.

An interesting trend, particularly noticeable in Western countries, is the growing number of young people who choose to rent instead of buying an apartment by their own choice. Unfortunately, even if Poles changed their approach to ownership and were more inclined toward rental, we still encounter serious barriers.

As Eurostat data shows, apartment rental in Poland is still not very popular – it concerns only 13 percent of households, while the average for European Union countries is 31 percent. Moreover, this indicator has remained almost unchanged for about 15 years. For comparison, in Austria and Germany, approx. half of the residents live in rented premises – 45.8 and 50.5 percent respectively.

The limited number of apartments available for rent in Poland and the applicable law protecting tenants translates into high rent rates on commercial market. The latest AMRON-SARFiN Report 1/2025 indicates a varied situation in individual cities. The lowest average rental rates for apartments in Q1 2025 were recorded in cities such as Katowice (1 265 PLN/month) and Lodz (1 394 PLN/month). The most expensive is in Warsaw and Wroclaw, where the average apartment rental rate in Warsaw was 2 286 PLN and 1 883 PLN/month respectively. For many young people, this means that independently renting an apartment becomes beyond their financial reach – especially when they simultaneously need to cover other basic expenses such as bills, food or education-related costs.

Outside the largest agglomerations, the availability of rental housing in Poland is very limited. In small towns and villages distant from large cities, the commercial rental market practically doesn’t function. In some former provincial capitals, such as Konin, Łomża or Suwałki, the number of apartment rental advertisements rarely exceeds ten per month. As a result, young people living in rural areas or small county towns usually have only three realistic options: build a house independently, move to a larger city or remain in the family home. This is exactly one of the main reasons why Poland maintains a high level of nesting.

In large cities, the monthly fee for apartment rental often equals, and sometimes even exceeds, the amount of a mortgage loan instalment for a similar premises. For this reason, for many young Poles, renting an apartment is simply a necessity, not a conscious choice. As soon as their situation allows them to take a loan (when they achieve creditworthiness and accumulate a sufficiently high down payment), most of them would immediately decide to buy their own apartment.

Finland and Sweden, where the percentage of young people living with their parents is the lowest, effectively support housing independence through appropriate state programs. In Sweden, people aged 18-25 can apply for so-called youth housing, i.e. small premises with favourable rent, which are meant to facilitate their entry into adulthood and independence. In Finland, there’s a support system for people buying their first apartment, which also promotes earlier leaving of the family home and starting independent life.

To improve the situation of young people on the Polish housing market, comprehensive actions are needed. One of the key aspects is mental change and abandoning the model of private ownership as a necessity and the only right option. Following the example of Finland or Sweden, where government programs supporting young people’s housing independence work successfully, Poland should focus on developing social housing and rental support programmes. Without solving these issues, it will be difficult to improve the demographic situation, increase economic competitiveness or sustainable urban development.

Monika Grążawska
Customer Relations Senior Specialist