‘Concrete gold’ in 2026: is real estate still a safe harbour or already an overvalued anchor?

The beginning of 2026 on the Polish real estate market is a moment of tension between two forces of rarely seen intensity. On one hand, we are observing record-high housing prices in major urban areas, which should be considered as precaution alert. On the other, an unprecedented scale of liquid household savings. The amount held in Poles’ current accounts has exceeded one trillion zlotys, and a further more than PLN 400 billion is held in time deposits. This is the picture of a society that, despite the inflationary turbulence of recent years, still has substantial purchasing power.

The question increasingly asked by both investors and ordinary buyers is: will this capital, encouraged by the interest-rate cuts of 2025, flow back into the real estate market, fulfilling the national “dream of concrete”? Or has an apartment ceased to be the obvious investment choice and begun to resemble an anchor that limits financial flexibility?

The end of a one-way street

For more than a decade, the Polish housing market resembled a straight road leading to wealth. Low interest rates, limited supply and dynamic price growth meant that nearly every purchase decision ended with success. An apartment was not only a consumer good, but also an almost automatic policy protecting capital against inflation. However, 2026 brings a reality check for this model. Although the rate-cut cycle has become a fact, apartment prices remain very high, close to historical peaks. In these conditions, real estate ceases to be the default choice and increasingly becomes an asset that requires cool-headed calculation, realistic assumptions and a long- time horizon.

A recovery without euphoria

December 2025 brought a clear revival on the primary market. Instead of a seasonal slowdown, there was an increase in the number of apartments launched for sale and transaction volumes almost matched new supply. This was a response to improved credit availability, not a ‘random spike’. At the same time, there was no phenomenon of mass buying panic, the so-called ‘FOMO’ (Fear of Missing Out) known from earlier years. Instead of emotional decisions, we observed a gradual return of demand based on calculation. The market’s psychological foundation remains strong, however, according to the report “Barometer of Poles’ Investment Readiness 2025”, owning real estate still ranks first in the hierarchy of Poles’ investment aspirations. This gives demand a structural rather than purely cyclical character.

The paradox of cheap money

One of the biggest myths of today’s market is the belief that ‘it pays off to buy now because credit is cheap’. A simulation of purchasing a 50-square-metre apartment in a large urban area proves how illusory this assumption is.

TABLE 1: COMPARISON OF PURCHASE COSTS (50 SQ. M. APARTMENT)

source: author’s own calculations

In 2026, a buyer pays approx. PLN 150 000 more for a comparable apartment than a buyer in 2023. The monthly instalment, lower by approx. PLN 300, comes at the cost of a much higher nominal debt and the need to put up an additional PLN 30 000 upfront. The entry barrier is not falling – in many cases, it is actually rising. This effectively dampens impulsiveness and makes credit a tool of optimization rather than an emotional trigger.

Demand is returning, but it has changed in nature

Demand that was frozen during the period of high interest rates is gradually returning in 2026. However, it is not spreading evenly across the country. It is recovering the fastest in locations, where fundamentals remain strong: in large cities, in locations with good transport accessibility and functional floor areas. The character of demand has changed markedly. Purchases driven by genuine housing needs dominate, rather than speculation. Customers are more selective and purchase decisions are less often made under time pressure or fear of a ‘running-away price’. As a result, the differences between well-designed projects and those created during the boom are becoming increasingly visible. The market rewards quality, location and functionality, not merely the fact of having an offer.

Supply and ‘price stickiness’

On the supply side, the situation appears paradoxical. The number of available apartments remains high, which in a classic framework should put downward pressure on prices. Yet in most locations, prices remain stable. High development costs and developers’ cautious policies mean the market has entered a phase of so-called ‘price stickiness’. Instead of corrections, we more often observe negotiations, flexibility in sales terms and non-price bonuses (e.g., a garage included in the price). This is an environment favourable for buyers, but it does not mean a cheap market. Apartment prices in 2026 are rather high, but stable and predictable.

The savings potential

It is worth remembering that price stabilization in nominal terms does not automatically mean real gains. In many cities, the market is still compensating for inflation from previous years and the real rate of return on housing remains low. This is not a speculative bubble environment, but it is also far from quick and easy profits market. Real estate is not an offensive asset any more, not as much as it used to be, but more often it becomes a capital-protection tool, requiring a long horizon and realistic expectations.

The trillion zlotys accumulated in Poles’ accounts is highly impressive. The last time such a strong propensity to build up funds was recorded in 2019, which foreshadowed a period of very intense investment purchases. Today, however, the situation is different. Inflation has returned close to target and deposits together with treasury bonds offer positive rates of return. The pressure to ‘run from cash’, characteristic of 2022–2023, has clearly weakened.

In addition, investment demand collides with the hard mathematics of yields. The rental market, after a period of dynamic rent increases, has entered a phase of stabilization offering predictable but moderate income, increasingly resembling a long-term income instrument rather than a source of spectacular gains.

Where did FOMO go?

Calmness in sales offices stems from three key psychological and behavioural factors. First, the erosion of trust in state intervention on the housing market, shaped by experiences with the ‘Safe Loan 2%’ programme and announcements of further subsidies – citizens has stopped believing in quick, free gifts from the state. Buyers have learned that subsidy announcements most often end with a sudden jump in real estate prices that cancels out the benefit of the subsidy. Second, a real alternative in the form of bonds and deposits. Despite rate cuts, treasury bonds (especially those linked to inflation from previous years) are still working in Poles’ portfolios. The sense of security provided by ‘clean money’ in a bank sub-account wins over the prospect of dealing with tenants and renovations. Third, price fatigue, i.e., Poles have reached a psychological threshold of price acceptance and PLN 20 000 per one square metre for a mass-market standard in a large city has stopped shocking and started to discourage.

The market has entered a ‘wait-and-see’ phase, resulting from the simple inability to finance a purchase without drastically lowering one’s standard of living. However, this may change soon. In December, developers launched a record 5.3 thousand apartments for sale and obtained construction permits for 20 thousand apartments, which can be interpreted as preparation for an offensive. Developers are building up their offer, expecting that further rate cuts combined with wage growth will break the psychological barrier. Then part of the capital may move back toward real estate. And it is precisely this moment, when the risk appears that real estate – purchased under pressure – will become an anchor.

Real estate as an anchor

An excessively high purchase price causes real estate to lose its defensive characteristics. At current valuations, the profit-to-risk ratio becomes less attractive, especially if we take into account the following factors:

• Returns: at current purchase prices, net rental yields in large cities hover around 3.5–4.5%. This level is comparable to safe financial instruments that require no management, renovations or vacancy risk. Real estate bought at peak valuation ceases to be an obvious investment alternative.
• Liquidity trap: shares can be sold in 3 seconds. Bonds in 2 days. An apartment in 2026 takes an average of 6-9 months to sell, unless we want to cut the price drastically. In the era of geopolitical uncertainty, freezing several million zlotys in concrete can be a strategic mistake.
• ‘Energy vampires’: the EPBD directive means that environmental awareness ceases to be a hobby and becomes a financial obligation. Apartments in old tenement houses or large-panel blocks that have not undergone thermal retrofitting begin to be valued with an ‘energy discount’. The cost of modernizing a unit may soon exceed the potential gains from its value appreciation.
• Demographics: this is not a problem that will hit tomorrow – in smaller cities it is already a problem today. The concentration of demand in the five largest metropolitan areas means that investments in smaller towns become a trap of not having a tenant.

In such conditions, concrete stops being ‘gold’ by definition and starts being an asset that requires active management and readiness for a long time horizon.

Where does real estate still make sense?

This does not mean that apartments as investments are written off. Real estate continues to serve as a hard asset and capital protection in the long term. It wins, however, only in specific segments: well-located, aligned with real demographic needs, with yields clearly exceeding safe alternatives. Scale, professionalization and resilience to cycle fluctuations are gaining importance.

Scenarios for 2026 – 2028

The most likely scenario remains one of moderate stagnation: transaction prices stand still or rise by 2-3% annually (below inflation), the market becomes a buyer’s market (there is time to negotiate, view and choose ‘gems’) and profits are made by those, who can select opportunities. A scenario of a rapid return of FOMO would require a combination of very low rates and strong wage growth. Then capital from deposits would move en masse into the market, creating the last major growth wave of this decade. A price correction, in turn, remains possible only in the event of a strong external shock (geopolitics) – leveraged investors would be forced to sell off, which could reduce prices by 10-15%. For those buying at the peak in 2024/25, this would mean losing their entire downpayment.

Summary

The housing market in Poland in 2026 is neither in a bubble phase nor in a collapse phase. It is a mature, stable market and clearly more demanding than in previous cycles. ‘Concrete gold’ has not ceased to exist, but it no longer shines equally for everyone. It remains a safe haven only for those, who can realistically assess the cost of capital, yields and liquidity risk. For others, it may become an anchor – a burden limiting financial flexibility for years. In 2026, the true luxury is not owning many apartments. It is financial liquidity and peace of mind – something that concrete, bought at any price, can easily take away.

Agnieszka Pilcicka
Senior Real Estate Market Analyst