Archives: Badania i publikacje AMRON

In recent years, micro-apartments, i.e. compact units with a floor area often not exceeding 25 sqm., have become an increasingly discussed topic in the real estate market. Although such housing solutions have existed for decades in many countries, especially in Asia, they remain a new and controversial phenomenon in Poland. Some perceive them as a potential solution to the housing crisis and a response to the needs of young people, while others see them as a troubling symptom of a deteriorating socio-economic situation and declining urban planning standards.

Polish law defines the minimum residential area as 25 sqm. (pursuant to the Regulation of the Minister of Infrastructure of April 12, 2002, on technical conditions to be met by buildings and their location), yet the market also includes units formally classified as commercial premises, which bypass this requirement. In practice, a micro-apartment is a living space of approximately 20–30 sqm., usually arranged in an open-plan layout with a kitchenette, small bathroom and sleeping area.

Based on AMRON System data, the average price of apartments in Warsaw over the past year was analysed, categorized by usable floor area. Only transactional data were included in the analysis (final sales agreements from the secondary market, preliminary agreements from the secondary market, and preliminary agreements from the primary market).

CHART 1. AVERAGE PRICE PER M² OF AN APARTMENT IN WARSAW BY FLOOR AREA (2024)

For many, the main advantage of micro-apartments is their price. As the chart shows, price per square meter may be even higher for micro-apartments than for standard-sized units, but the total purchase cost remains significantly lower. For individuals with limited budgets and no mortgage eligibility for larger units, this may be the only way to own property in a major city.

The reasons behind the popularity of micro-apartments are complex. A key factor is the rising cost of real estate, as noted above. Moreover, demographic changes in Poland may be contributing to their growing appeal – people increasingly choose living as singles, and there is a rising number of both internal and external migrants looking for affordable housing options. Younger generations also value lifestyle flexibility, are more mobile and less tied to one place of residence for the long term. Developers’ pressure also plays a major role. Rising land prices and diminishing access to centrally located plots are pushing investors to maximize profits by building on smaller areas. As a result, micro-apartments are no longer just a phenomenon, but have become a real, albeit still relatively small, segment of the market.

From an urban planning perspective, micro-apartments raise serious questions. Urbanists are debating whether such housing types truly support the development of well-designed, sustainable cities. In densely built metropolitan centres, micro-apartments can serve as compact housing for workers, students, or singles. In Asian countries such as Japan or China, they are even integrated into the urban infrastructure: proximity to metro lines, services and public spaces compensates for the lack of private space. In Poland, however, many micro-apartment developments emerge chaotically – often in locations lacking good transport links, green areas or local services.

There are frequent cases of unofficial “conversion” of commercial premises into residential use, which allows developers to bypass regulations and standards required for proper residential units. From a financial market perspective, micro-apartments pose challenges: if an unit is legally a commercial property, it is ineligible for a standard mortgage, requiring a more expensive investment loan instead. A mortgage loan for purchase of a commercial unit can only be obtained by an individual or legal entity engaged in business activity. Furthermore, even if a unit meets legal residential standards, banks may question its value as loan collateral. Micro-apartments are considered riskier and less liquid than standard units, which can make them harder to sell. Consequently, some banks impose minimum size requirements on properties eligible for mortgage financing. For prospective buyers, this often means the need for a higher down payment or alternative financing options.

For developers, micro-apartments can be a highly profitable product. The ability to build more units on a single plot translates into higher profits. Small-area units tend to sell relatively quickly, especially in major cities, where demand from individual investors (e.g. for short-term rental) is high. However, in Poland, there is increasing discussion around the issue of “patho-development” and local governments are beginning to pay more attention to the phenomenon, often with scepticism. There are initiatives and discussions aimed at limiting the construction of micro-apartments through local zoning plans.

It is worth considering whether micro-apartments are merely a short-term trend driven by current market challenges or a lasting transformation of urban housing structures. There is no clear answer. On one hand, the demand for affordable, accessible housing will not vanish. Demographic changes, rising living costs and limited mortgage affordability will continue to fuel interest in smaller units. On the other hand, an increasing number of people are recognizing the limitations of this solution and seeking alternatives, such as co-living (driven in part by rising rental prices) or modular housing. One possible solution would be better design of micro-apartments, focusing on quality, functionality and integration with urban infrastructure. A micro-apartment does not have to be a “shoebox” if it is smartly designed and situated within the right urban context.

Conclusions

Micro-apartments are a market response to real challenges, but they are not a universal solution. They offer an interesting alternative for young, mobile individuals looking for a low-cost entry into city living. However, over time, excessive promotion of this type of housing may exacerbate urban and social problems. While living in a micro-apartment can be practical, it also carries serious long-term socio-psychological consequences. Lack of space, privacy and comfort may negatively impact mental health, interpersonal relationships and work performance. Therefore, micro-apartments may serve well as temporary solutions, but are unlikely to be a healthy long-term alternative.

If the micro-apartment trend is to continue, regulatory measures will be needed to ensure residents’ quality of life, financial fairness and proper urban planning.

Karol Kacprzak
AMRON III Project Manager
Analyst and System Development Specialist

The Polish housing market is constantly changing – prices’ fluctuations, changes in the supply structure, differences between regions – all of this means that anyone interested in the subject of housing should be aware that this is a dynamic and highly complex phenomenon. Property prices are influenced by a number of factors: from the general condition of the economy and the level of inflation, through local investment decisions, to the demographic structure of a given city or the availability of public transport. One of the key elements of this puzzle is the relationship between the primary market (i.e. new apartments) and the secondary market (i.e. those that already have their owners and a history).

Although both markets operate in parallel, their logics can be completely different. Apartments on the primary market are mostly “produced” by developers – so their prices depend largely on construction costs and the availability of plots. Meanwhile, the secondary market is the domain of individual apartment owners. On one hand, we have the sector of planning and investments, on the other – the decisions of thousands of people guided by life necessity, convenience or emotions.

Importantly, despite these differences, both markets influence each other. When a lot of new apartments are built in a city, this can limit the price pressure on the secondary market. But it can also be the other way around – a lack of sufficient new development can drive up the prices of existing stock. Therefore, understanding the relationship between these two market segments is of great importance today – both for buyers and for decision-makers planning the spatial development of cities.

In this article, we examine this relationship trying to answer the question of whether and to what extent the new housing production translates into the prices of secondary market apartments in medium-sized Polish cities. We examined 24 cities with county rights, where the population in 2023 was between 100 000 and 200 000 people.

Two data sources were used for the analysis: statistics from the Statistics Poland (GUS) on the number of apartments put into use (i.e. new supply on the primary market) and data from the AMRON database. The period covered 2014–2023 – a full decade.

Each of the studied cities was ranked in two ways: according to the scale of housing production (i.e. the average number of apartments put into use per 1 000 inhabitants – chart 1.) and according to the rate of price growth on the secondary market (i.e. the change in the median price per sqm in the analysed period – chart 2.). To enable clear comparisons, the values ​​of both indicators were divided into tertiles – i.e. three groups with the same number of cities. They were then compiled into a simple 3×3 matrix, showing which cities were characterized by a given combination of the scale of housing production and the rate of price growth (chart 3.).

The results were interesting and sometimes surprising. The largest number of cities – five out of 24 – were ranked in the most desirable place in this matrix: high housing production and low price growth. This is a signal that the appropriate scale of new development can effectively counteract price pressure. This group included Rzeszów, Olsztyn, Kielce and Gorzów Wielkopolski – voivodeship cities, as well as Koszalin, a former voivodeship city.

The situation at the other end of the list was completely different. In four cities – Rybnik, Ruda Śląska, Bytom and Tarnów – a low level of new construction and a very high price increase were recorded at the same time. This is a worrying phenomenon that may indicate a structural housing shortage – a situation in which housing needs significantly exceed market possibilities. Such a mismatch results not only in price increases, but also in a growing risk of housing exclusion – especially for young people, families working their way up or seniors living on pensions. Importantly, in these cases, the price increase was subject to the so-called “base effect” – prices grew dynamically, but started from a low level from a decade ago.

Another equally interesting category were cities in which, despite high developer activity, housing prices on the secondary market were still rising very quickly. Among the 24 cities analysed, two had such characteristics: Zielona Góra and Opole. In their case, we are dealing with an example of a hot market – dynamic development, inflow of investors, good economic prospects. However, this type of boom also carries a risk: when the situation reverses, for example as a result of a crisis or population outflow, prices may fall just as rapidly.

It is also worth noting the complexity of the phenomenon itself. Many cities, despite low housing production, have not experienced a dramatic increase in prices. There may be many reasons: falling population, lack of new jobs, low investment attractiveness. In turn, in some centres, the high supply of apartments was not a sufficient barrier to prices, which shows that the market cannot be slowed down by the number of new buildings alone. The quality of these apartments, their location, access to public transport or social infrastructure are crucial.

CHART 1. AVERAGE HOUSING PRODUCTION PER 1 000 INHABITANTS, 2014-2023

CHART 2. PERCENTAGE INCREASE IN THE MEDIAN PRICE PER SQUARE METER OF HOUSING ON THE SECONDARY MARKET, 2014-2023

CHART 3. CLASSIFICATION MATRIX

 

At the statistical level, the analysis showed a moderate correlation between new supply and price changes on the secondary market. In other words, there is a relationship, but it is neither direct nor unequivocal. This is an important conclusion: it is not enough to simply build more to reduce prices. A smart, locally adapted housing policy is needed, taking into account the real needs of residents.

Although it is impossible to draw one simple rule, the analysis allows for a better understanding of the mechanisms operating on local housing markets. It shows that an effective housing policy must take into account investments in infrastructure, spatial planning and the development of services. Only such an integrated approach will allow medium-sized cities to effectively counteract housing imbalances and create space that is actually accessible to all social groups.

Hubert Horynek
Real Estate Market Analyst

The new “First Keys” programme is the government’s response to the growing difficulties that Poles face when trying to purchase their own home. Stringent credit requirements and high property prices mean that many persons are unable to afford a place of their own. The aim of this initiative is to enable individuals, who previously had no opportunity to enter the housing market by improving access to financing, while maintaining market balance and mitigating the risk of price inflation driven by excessive demand. The “First Keys” programme could become an important tool in addressing the housing crisis in Poland. Since the draft legislation has not yet been officially presented, all related information should be treated as preliminary.

Who is it for?

The “First Keys” programme will be addressed to citizens who have never owned a flat or a house, neither individually, nor jointly with another person. Its main goal is to support those, who are just beginning their journey toward homeownership.

The initiative is also expected to include financial support for social and municipal housing (BSK), as well as for Social Rental Housing (SBC) by increasing the availability of rental units with moderate rents and affordably priced homes for purchase. Investments carried out under this model will be eligible for subsidies, making it easier for local governments and social housing initiatives to build units accessible to individuals, who cannot afford to purchase a home on the commercial market. In this way, the programme aims to support not only individual beneficiaries, but also to expand the stock of social housing in Poland.

When will it start?

The programme is expected to launch at the beginning of 2026 and run through the end of 2030. A specific start date has not yet been set, as the legislative draft is still under consultation.

The government intends to guarantee subsidies for the first 10 000 qualifying applications submitted each quarter, along with a request for a loan instalment subsidy. Once this threshold is reached, applications will be temporarily suspended until the start of the next quarter.

Financial Terms – how much can you borrow?

The maximum housing loan amount eligible for a subsidy under the “First Keys” programme will depend on the household members. The principle is simple: the larger the household, the higher the loan limit eligible for support. This mechanism is designed to align government assistance with the actual housing needs of families of different sizes.

Below is a table outlining the programme’s financial terms, based on information published by Bankier.pl. It includes both income limits and the maximum loan amounts eligible for subsidies.

Household size	Max Monthly Net Income	Max Amount of Subsidised Loan
1 person	PLN 6 500	PLN 250 000
2 persons	PLN 9 500	PLN 400 000
3 persons	PLN 11 500	PLN 450 000
4 persons	PLN 13 500	PLN 500 000
5 persons*	PLN 15 000	PLN 600 000

* Each additional household member increases the available loan limit by PLN 50,000.

Some publications are based on different figures, indicating that the final values may still be revised.

If a household’s income exceeds the specified limit, the subsidy amount will be proportionally reduced by PLN 0.50 for each PLN 1.00 of excess income in single-person households and by PLN 0.25 in households of two or more people.

Price limits for properties will also apply. The price of a property purchased on the secondary market must not exceed the price cap per square meter of usable floor area, as determined under the law. This limit is to be announced annually, based on the average construction costs in the social housing sector. Local governments may establish different (lower or higher) limits for their jurisdiction than those set at the national level.

Unofficial sources suggest that this limit will be PLN 10 000 per 1 sqm. for smaller towns and PLN 11 000 per 1 sqm. for larger cities such as Warsaw, Cracow, Gdansk, Poznan and Wroclaw.

Instalment Subsidies and Favourable Interest Rates

The new mortgage loan solution will be available exclusively in Polish zlotys and must have a minimum repayment term of 15 years. The interest rate will be fixed, set for five-year periods. So-called “stabilization subsidies” will apply to the first 120 principal and interest instalments, provided they are paid on time according to the repayment schedule.

If the loan is issued as a consumer loan to finance a housing contribution or equity share under the programme, the repayment term must be at least 5 years, but no more than 15 years. In this case, subsidies will apply to the first 60 instalments.

One component of the “First Keys” programme also includes support for those planning to purchase a home, but have a low down-payment. According to the draft proposal, individuals taking out a mortgage with a down-payment of less than 20% of the investment value will be eligible for a loan repayment guarantee from Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK), provided the total loan-financed cost does not exceed PLN 1 million.

This loan guarantee may also apply to housing-related consumer loans, provided they are taken to cover the cost of a housing contribution or participation in the construction of a residential unit within social housing frameworks such as housing cooperatives or TBS organizations.

In the case of mortgage loans under the “First Keys” programme, a subsidy will be provided, reducing the interest rate to 1.5%. In contrast, loans financing housing contributions or participation costs will carry a 0% interest rate.

What can be purchased under the programme?

For new constructions, subsidized loans may finance, among other things, the construction of a single-family home, its finishing, the purchase of a building plot, or investments carried out by housing cooperatives. On the secondary market, subsidies will only be available under specific conditions related to the property, which must be completed and used as a housing unit for at least five years, as well as to the seller, who must hold a legal title to it for a minimum of three years. These conditions aim to prevent speculative property transactions.

Summary

The “First Keys” programme seems to offer a real opportunity for many young people to begin life in their own home. It combines attractive financial conditions with a broad range of possibilities for purchasing or building a property. However, it is important to remember that the number of applications will be limited, and the specific terms of the programme are still subject to clarification.

Joanna Woźniak
Maintenance and Development Specialist

REITs, or Real Estate Investment Trusts, are special funds that invest on the real estate market and generate income from leasing or selling properties. REITs currently operate in 46 countries worldwide. The United States has the longest history with REITs, having introduced them through the REIT Act in 1960. The intention behind this solution was primarily to open up the commercial real estate market, previously dominated by large funds and wealthy investors, to smaller, individual investors. A key feature of the new solution was the imposition of several requirements on these entities, the most important of which included the obligation to distribute 90% of income as dividends and a focus on real estate investments. The first European country to introduce REITs was the Netherlands. In 1969, tax-privileged investment funds known as Fiscale Beleggingsinstelling were established, which were de facto tax-exempt and required to distribute 100% of their income to shareholders within 8 months of the fiscal year-end. From the 1990s onward, similar solutions were introduced in other countries: Belgium, followed by France (SIIC), Germany (G-REIT), the United Kingdom and Spain (SOCIMI). In Asia, successful implementation examples include Japan, South Korea and Singapore, where REITs play a significant role not only in the real estate sector, but also on financial markets. It is important to note that this model is not uniform: in each country, REITs are regulated individually and the principles of investment and taxation of income vary.

The first plans to introduce REITs in Poland emerged in 2016. At that time, the Ministry of Finance began working on a bill concerning FINNs, i.e. Companies Investing in Real Estate for Rent, which was intended to create the legal framework for Polish REITs. As in other countries, the goal of implementing this solution was to allow smaller individual and institutional investors to participate in the real estate market while maintaining high investment liquidity and transparency, as well as favourable tax treatment, such as exemption from corporate income tax (CIT) in exchange for paying out a specified level of dividends. Initially, the draft legislation assumed that Polish REITs would invest in the residential rental market. Over time, however, the proposals evolved, broadening the scope of investment to include commercial real estate and expanding the pool of potential investors. Subsequent versions of the bill failed to gain full support, either from the market or political decision-makers. Delays were caused by concerns over the speculative nature of the funds and their potential impact on rising housing prices. Critics also pointed to a lack of transparency in the projects and the absence of safeguards for tenants. At the same time, shifting economic conditions, including the COVID-19 pandemic and capital market instability, pushed the topic of REITs further into the background.

The issue of introducing REITs returned to public debate in 2021. A new draft bill was presented, this time focusing exclusively on the commercial real estate market. Despite support from parts of the industry, this bill also failed to pass. In April 2024, the Ministry of Development and Technology revived the idea of introducing REITs, even presenting initial assumptions for a draft bill. However, to date, no official draft amendment or new legal act has been published, and work on new solutions is also underway at the Ministry of Finance. According to media reports, legislative assumptions could be published before the summer holidays. Based on information from the Ministry, the operational framework for Polish REITs in the residential and commercial real estate sectors is already prepared, while work continues on investment rules for infrastructure REITs.

Supporters of introducing REITs in Poland point out that REITs will significantly lower the entry threshold for real estate investments, making them accessible to those, who cannot afford to purchase an entire rental apartment, bear transaction costs, or are unable or unwilling to manage rental properties. Thanks to this low entry threshold, REITs will democratize real estate investment, offering an alternative to bank deposits or equity funds with relatively low investment risk. As such, they could also provide tangible support for the pension system, especially given an ongoing demographic crisis. In Poland’s rental market, which is dominated by private owners, REITs as institutional landlords managing large portfolios of apartments could introduce new quality standards in renting. This is also evidenced by the experience of countries that implemented this solution earlier.

Another important argument in favour of REITs is the need to overcome one of the biggest barriers to the development of Poland’s housing market – limited access to long-term, stable financing. If we add the possibility of financing or co-financing not only housing, but also infrastructure projects, REITs could become highly attractive partners for local governments.

The list of potential benefits of implementing REITs is therefore long. Moreover, these benefits seem truly significant from the perspective of both potential investors and housing needs. All the more, however, it is essential to also consider the potential risks associated with such solutions – risks that, as international experience shows, are not negligible. Sceptics point to the potential rise in property prices or rental rates as the main risk of introducing REITs. This risk does indeed exist, as seen in cities such as Berlin, Dublin or Toronto. Rising housing prices, however, are only part (and a consequence) of a broader phenomenon: the financialization of the housing market resulting from the entry of institutional players. In this process, housing ceases to be viewed as a basic good that fulfils a fundamental human need and instead becomes an investment asset, subject to profitability and value growth criteria. Over the long term, this increases the risk of housing affordability decline and, in extreme cases, the rise of housing exclusion, especially affecting young people, families with children and the elderly. The demographic and urban development consequences of such a scenario are self-evident.

The financialization of the housing market also brings with it the risk of REITs “transferring” problems from the capital market to the housing market. A downturn in capital markets, caused by factors such as interest rate hikes, financial crises or capital flight, could force asset sales, which in turn might destabilize the housing market. In such a case, homes intended to meet basic human needs could become hostages to stock market sentiment. In unstable and risky times, when capital is once again “gaining nationality,” destabilizing the housing market – and thereby social sentiment – could also become a likely scenario and a weapon in hybrid warfare.

According to a report published in December 2024 by JLL and Bank Pekao S.A., the potential long-term engagement of domestic individual and institutional investors in Polish REITs could reach approx. PLN 20 billion. This is an amount comparable to the quarterly volume of mortgage financing by the Polish banking sector. Given that these funds would be invested in both residential and commercial real estate, there is little reason to fear the materialization of the above-mentioned serious risks. However, the likelihood will grow along with the volume of invested capital. It is therefore essential to establish assumptions that will mitigate these risks in the future as well.

Jerzy Ptaszyński
Research and Market Service Director

The suburban town of Ząbki may seem unassuming due to its small area – just 11 km². Over the years, Ząbki has undergone significant changes in character, evolving from a settlement to a garden city concept and, ultimately, into its current state as a high-density urban area. The city’s Development Strategy for 2024-2033 envisions its transformation into a compact city. The structural dynamics of Ząbki stem from its location, population influx and changing residents’ needs.

Located approximately 9 km from the centre of Warsaw, Ząbki’s character is largely shaped by its proximity to the capital. The rapid development of multi-family housing and accompanying services has increased the town’s attractiveness for potential buyers. The central part of Ząbki serves as a hub of concentrated services, housing the City Hall, various public utility buildings and a railway station. Residential development in the city centre consists of multi-family buildings constructed between 1960 and 2000, alongside single-family homes. The service sector is concentrated along Provincial Road No. 634. A social divide exists between the northern and southern parts of the city, separated by the Warsaw Wileńska – Małkinia railway line. The area around the tunnel for vehicular traffic, which connects the northern and southern parts of the city, is considered the town centre.

The northern part of Ząbki is predominantly made up of single-family housing on small plots. At the city’s northern boundary, there is the S8 expressway, which negatively affects residential comfort in this area. The southern part, in contrast, consists mostly of new multi-family housing with commercial spaces on the ground floors.

Ząbki occupies the smallest land area among the municipalities of the Wołomin County (just 1.16% of the county’s total area), yet it has the highest population density. Increasing demands for infrastructure, transportation accessibility and social and living facilities drive the need for new investments, not only in housing, but also in other sectors. Given these factors, Ząbki presents a high investment potential, attracting significant interest from various industries.

Ząbki is a municipal town located in the Wołomin County, which is largely part of the Warsaw metropolitan area. As of December 31, 2023, the town had a population of over 45 thousand, marking an approximate 37% increase compared to 2014.

The demand for residential properties is driven by rising local incomes and migration from smaller towns toward metropolitan areas. These trends are observable both nationwide in Poland and at a local level, particularly in larger towns and the surrounding less urbanized areas. Due to its immediate proximity to Warsaw, Ząbki benefits from socio-economic growth and exhibits similar market trends to the Warsaw real estate sector.

A Brief History of the Town

Originally called Wola Ząbkowa, the town’s history dates back to the 16th century. The royal village of Wola Ząbkowa was located in the Warsaw district of the Masovian Voivodeship. In 1580, its name was changed to Ząbki. The town experienced significant growth in the first half of the 19th century. In 1827, it comprised of 36 buildings and 206 residents, a number that had increased to 600 by the 1880s. At that time, Ząbki was part of the Roniker family’s estate.

By the late 19th century, Count Roniker had built two brickyards and a narrow-gauge railway to Bródno, which boosted employment. The opening of the Warsaw-Saint Petersburg Railway in 1862 further spurred population growth and economic activity. In 1912, a portion of Roniker’s estate was subdivided based on a competition-winning design by Professor Tadeusz Tołwiński, initiating the transformation into a garden city.

The garden city concept aimed to create neighbourhoods surrounded by greenery, featuring low-density housing and a structured division into functional zones to meet residents’ needs. This approach sought to address the issues of overcrowded cities and poor living conditions by designing a self-sufficient town with essential facilities, including a courthouse, post office, power plant, water station, fire station, bathhouse, casino, school and church. A key focus was on spatial planning, with a hierarchy of roads, a market square, standalone villas and extensive parks, squares and gardens.

FIGURE 1. ZĄBKI’S URBAN SUBDIVISION PLAN AS FOR 1912

source: “The Garden City of Ząbki. Idea and Implementation” A. Majewska, J. Szymanowska

The urban plan was adapted to the local topography, preserving the existing road layout while modifying the route to Drewnica. The design incorporated natural ponds and clay pits while adding new parks and squares. The town was to be connected to Warsaw by the Saint Petersburg Railway (with a station in the centre) and the Marecka Railway (to the north). The railway line divided the estate into two sections: the southern part was more prestigious, housing all service facilities, while the northern section was primarily residential with smaller plots.

The town’s structure was clearly defined, comprising five building clusters arranged around a main street that served as a compositional axis perpendicular to the railway line. The axis featured key landmarks such as a church, a school and a sports field. A secondary axis, extending from the market square, linked recreational areas with the eastern casino and the town’s technical service complex. The buildings, including villas, semi-detached houses and row houses, were integrated with green spaces and connected by a system of public areas.

The Current Urban Structure

Comparing Ząbki’s 1912 subdivision plan with its current layout reveals significant differences (Figure 2). Some areas were not subdivided as originally planned, street layouts were altered, land parcels were further divided and denser multi-family, row and semi-detached housing was introduced.

FIGURE 2: THE AREA COVERED BY THE GARDEN CITY PLAN VS. THE CURRENT STATE

source: own study, base map from http://google.pl/maps

A portion of Tołwiński’s design has been designated as a protected zone in Ząbki’s Study of Spatial Conditions and Development Directions. Many buildings are now listed in the heritage registry and municipal records. The city’s Development Strategy for 2024–2033 aims to preserve this area. However, the southern part of the city is not included in this protected zone and, as a result, available land has been maximized for development.

Given the limited space for new investments and the growing needs of residents, Ząbki’s Development Strategy proposes transforming it into a compact city. This approach emphasizes sustainable development and the rational use of available space, ensuring access to essential services within walking distance, reducing reliance on public or private transport.

Since the northern part of Ząbki primarily consists of single-family homes with limited new developments, the analysis focuses on the market for developer-supplied residential units in the southern part of the city.

Residential market in Ząbki

Based on a standardized transactional database in terms of quality, it is possible to identify the key factors that influence property value. However, it should be noted that purchases from developers often involve individual agreements between the seller and the buyer, which may deviate from general market trends.

Over the analysed period (2014–2023), an upward trend can be observed in both the population size and the average price per square meter of usable residential space. The chart below presents the average price per square meter of usable residential space for Wołomin County and Poland as a whole. Using transactional data from the real estate price register and the AMRON System, the chart has been enriched with average price data for Ząbki. A correlation between these average values is evident throughout the analysed period. The price trend line for Ząbki exhibits the greatest fluctuations, as it represents the smallest market segment in this analysis. Consequently, these variations are more noticeable and are not adjusted for local, socio-economic, or economic factors affecting the county or the entire country.

A significant spike in the average price per square meter of residential property in Ząbki in 2021 could have been driven by several factors. The easing of emotions related to the COVID-19 pandemic, prolonged stagnation due to numerous pandemic restrictions and the launch of another edition of the government housing program contributed to improved investor sentiment. Additionally, 2020 was an almost record-breaking year in Ząbki in terms of number of housing units completed, with nearly 22 new apartments per 1 000 residents.

FIGURE 3. AVERAGE PRICE PER SQM OF USABLE RESIDENTIAL SPACE ON PRIMARY MARKET

source: own study based on data from the real estate price register and the AMRON database

When considering the location of residential units within the town, completed investments and their distribution should be taken into account. The southern part of the city experienced dynamic development in multi-family housing construction, leading to the highest number of transactions involving properties in developer standard. The individual housing estates do not differ significantly in terms of architectural style, functional-spatial layout or transport accessibility. They consist of several to a dozen buildings, interspersed with pedestrian pathways, decorative green spaces, playgrounds and designated private gardens for the exclusive use of residents on the ground floors. Given the high demand for parking spaces, large underground garages were built beneath entire estates.

The buildings within each estate are uniform, with no distinct differences in structure, façade or functional layout. As a result, subsequent development phases are merely extensions of the existing estate. These buildings typically have up to five above-ground floors (with occasional dominant structures reaching seven floors), making the southern part of the city cohesive, without a dominant architectural style. However, with ongoing development and new phases of construction, this area faces increasing transportation and social challenges.

The uniform nature of the buildings and lack of architectural diversity have led to the highest demand for apartments on the third and fourth floors. Despite the fact that all new buildings are equipped with elevators, top-floor units are not the most sought-after. This may be due to the lack of height variation among buildings, which reduces the attractiveness of the view. Furthermore, top-floor apartments are associated with potential risks related to roof drainage and possible leaks, as well as the inconvenience of using stairs during elevator malfunctions. Ground-floor units, on the other hand, are more exposed to burglary risks and offer lower comfort due to pedestrian pathways running close to windows and noise from shared areas such as playgrounds and courtyards.

Newly completed residential units have been adapted to changing buyer preferences in terms of size. The most recent phases of housing developments, completed between 2021 and 2023, featured larger average unit sizes, with the most popular apartments ranging from 40 to 60 square meters.

Over the years, the city of Ząbki has transformed from a town characterized by low-intensity single-family housing combined with recreational areas and significant urban greenery into a city of “two cultures,” where a railway line running through the centre has become a social and urban boundary. While the northern part of the city has maintained its original character, the southern part has evolved into a high-density residential area, housing the majority of the town’s population. This area has not been subject to consistent urban planning, leading to an imbalance between residential, commercial and recreational spaces. The Ząbki Development Strategy outlines a plan for implementing a new urban order based on the compact city concept. However, given the severely limited space available, this plan may not significantly improve living conditions in this part of the city. Despite increasing transportation and social issues, housing prices in this area continue to rise at a pace similar to the national market. Unless real estate development in this district reaches spatial limits, this trend is unlikely to change.

Agata Wróblewska
Maintenance and development Specialist
Certified Property Valuer (License No. 8247)

In recent years, the concept of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) has gained significance, influencing many industries, including the real estate market. The challenges faced by the real estate sector are highly diverse and complex. Construction in Europe has a huge impact on environment, accounting for nearly half of total energy consumption, about half of raw materials exploitation, one-third of water consumption and substantial waste generation. These figures highlight the extent of the construction sector’s impact on natural resources and ecosystems, underscoring the need for sustainable development. A responsible approach to resource management, along with the implementation of innovative technological solutions, can be essential for minimizing the industry’s negative environmental footprint.

What is ESG?

ESG stands for three key areas that form the foundation of corporate responsibility:

• Environmental – focuses on actions aimed at protecting the environment and minimizing the impact of business activities on nature. This includes energy efficiency in buildings, modern heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems, waste management, water consumption and the use of green technologies. Buildings should strive for carbon neutrality by reducing or eliminating greenhouse gas emissions both during construction and throughout their operational lifespan.
• Social – relates to the impact of business activities on society, including housing availability for different social groups, ensuring safety and health for occupants, as well as providing spaces for social integration.
• Governance – covers corporate governance and transparency in business processes, including ethics, compliance with legal regulations and executive accountability. This involves adherence to building standards, transaction transparency and responsibility for project development decisions.

ESG and the real estate market

The impact of ESG on the Polish real estate market is multidimensional. On one hand, it responds to global challenges related to climate change, and on the other, it reflects the growing awareness of investors and consumers regarding sustainable development.

1. Green construction and energy efficiency

One of the key ESG aspects in real estate is green construction, which focuses on creating energy-efficient and environmentally friendly buildings. In Poland, as in other countries, there is increasing demand for office buildings and residential properties that meet high ecological standards.

2. Social responsibility and integration with local communities

ESG also emphasizes social aspects. In Poland, as in many other countries, the demand is growing for housing that is not only functional, but also accessible to a broad range of users. Investors and developers are paying more attention to:

• diversified housing offers that cater to various social groups, including seniors, families with children and people with disabilities;
• integration of public spaces with residential areas, such as parks, recreational spaces and remote work areas;
• improving access to public transport and infrastructure, which enhances residents’ comfort and reduces carbon emissions.

3. Property Management and Process Transparency

In terms of management, ESG principles influence the organization of processes related to construction, property management and sales. Transparency, legal compliance and responsible project management are essential for building trust among investors and users. These aspects include:

• compliance with construction and environmental protection standards;
• adherence to local regulations and legal requirements;
• sustainable investment planning, considering long-term impacts on the surrounding environment.

ESG Reporting

ESG reporting is a cyclical process aimed at regularly providing information on a company’s sustainability progress. The key stages include:

1. Data collection – organizations must gather relevant data across all ESG areas, such as CO2 emissions measurements, water consumption analysis, employment policies and workplace safety information.
2. Selection of indicators – determining which indicators will be reported, such as energy efficiency metrics, workplace diversity statistics or adherence to ethical standards in the supply chain.
3. Analysis and evaluation – the collected data must be analysed and assessed to track the organization’s progress toward ESG goals. This analysis also helps identify areas that need improvement.
4. Report development – the ESG report is compiled based on collected data and analysis results. It presents company achievements, challenges, future goals and specific ESG initiatives. Typically, this report is made publicly available to stakeholders.
5. Audit and verification – ESG reports are often subject to external audits to ensure accuracy and reliability. Verification confirms that the company meets required ESG standards and principles.

ESG reporting helps companies build trust among investors, consumers and other stakeholders. It also demonstrates corporate engagement in sustainable development and awareness of the social and environmental impact of business operations. Additionally, ESG reporting is increasingly becoming a regulatory requirement, particularly within the European Union, where companies are obligated to disclose sustainability-related data.

On February 26, 2025, the European Commission announced the Omnibus I package, the first simplification package in the field of sustainability. The purpose of this package is to reduce the administrative burden on businesses in the European Union. However, the proposals in this package are not yet final and are currently under negotiation in the EU Council and the European Parliament.

Conclusions

ESG criteria are increasingly influencing the real estate market in Poland, transforming the way that buildings are designed, constructed and used. Sustainable development, responsible management and environmental awareness are no longer just trends but necessities from both an investor and resident perspective. Considering ESG factors in real estate is crucial for success in today’s market, which demands more responsible and conscious business decisions.

Klaudia Jastrzębska
Buildings Database Project Coordinator

The Origins and General Principles of the Garden City

The garden city concept was developed by Ebenezer Howard in the late 19th century as a response to the issues faced by industrial urban centres, which were overcrowded and expanding in an unplanned and rapid manner. Residents of these cities lived in poor conditions, often in rented, cramped apartments suffering from humidity issues and a lack of access to sunlight. These conditions negatively impacted public health and contributed to social problems. At the same time, E. Howard observed depopulation in rural settlements. He aimed to create a solution that would improve the quality of life for London’s workers while simultaneously revitalizing the surrounding villages.

In his vision of the city of the future, he sought to combine the advantages of urban life with the benefits of rural living, while eliminating their respective disadvantages. The garden city concept was designed to accommodate 32 000 residents across an area of 6 000 acres (approximately 2 400 hectares). It was based on a circular plan, divided into urban and agricultural zones in a 1:5 ratio. The urban area was located at the centre of the circle and surrounded by agricultural land. A park was situated at the heart of the city, around which public buildings and service facilities were arranged. Radiating outward from the park were residential districts composed of single-family homes with large gardens, providing private green spaces for residents. Beyond the residential zones there was a narrow belt of industrial buildings, offering employment opportunities for the local population, along with an eco-friendly railway facilitating easy and fast transportation between districts. The outermost section of the circle, designated for agriculture, began beyond the railway tracks and was covered with farms, orchards and forests.

The first city built in accordance with the garden city concept was Letchworth Garden City in the United Kingdom. The plan was to develop dozens of such satellite towns around London, but only a few were successfully completed.

The Spread of the Concept in Poland

The garden city concept reached Poland in a modified form, as its initial implementation in early garden cities encountered challenges that necessitated adjustments to fit the realities of the time. It became evident that rental costs exceeded the financial capabilities of London’s workers, and instead, wealthier social classes seeking respite from the hustle and bustle of city life began moving into garden cities.

Additionally, in Poland the goal was not to create independent, self-sufficient towns, but rather commuter towns serving major urban centres, following the idea of “live in the countryside, work in the city.” The first garden cities in Polish territories emerged in the interwar period within the Warsaw metropolitan area. However, the homes – essentially villas – did not align with the original vision, as they were intended not for workers, but for the affluent Warsaw intelligentsia.

Podkowa Leśna

The most famous example of a garden city in Poland is the suburban town of Podkowa Leśna, which actively promotes itself as a garden city on its official website. It was established along the newly built suburban railway line connecting Warsaw, Grodzisk, and Żyrardów as a response to the unplanned development of new residential estates at the time. Thanks to its planned urban layout in accordance with the new concept, it was intended to become an ideal place to live.

An area of 292 hectares from the Podkowa Leśna estate was designated for the future city. The land was divided into 11 mini-districts, comprising 1 189 plots. The entire area was split into northern and southern sections by the railway line, with a station located in the town centre. In the south-western part of Podkowa Leśna, space was allocated for a park with a pond and sports and recreational facilities. The sale of plots and the construction of the first houses began in 1926. By the outbreak of World War II, the town’s population had grown to approximately 1 750 residents.

Today, Podkowa Leśna consists mostly of villas and historical buildings surrounded by greenery. Thanks to its network of cycling paths and the presence of three nature reserves and the Młochowski Forest, the town is a popular destination for outdoor recreation among nearby residents. Additionally, it boasts a rich cultural offering. Podkowa Leśna continues to develop by incorporating new technologies and undertaking environmental protection initiatives, such as the “Podkowa Leśna = Human Smart Town” project. The town’s uniqueness is further confirmed by the inclusion of its urban layout in the register of historical monuments in 1981.

Alan Bekker
Junior Specialist, GIS Analyst

For many years, unfinished single-family houses have been part of the landscape in various regions of the country. Among these buildings, you can find both those that, despite visible deficiencies, e.g. an unfinished facade, are already in use and perform residential functions, as well as those whose construction has stopped at the stage before it was possible to move into them. We are talking about buildings erected by so-called individual investors, i.e. people who decide to build a house mainly to meet their own housing needs, and not for commercial purposes.

There are many reasons why the completion of a single-family home is delayed or even impossible to achieve. A common reason is the overly ambitious plans of individual investors who, at the design stage, did not take into account all the risks associated with the construction process. Sometimes, they initially assume too much square footage or choose complicated solutions that in practice turn out to be difficult to implement within the specified budget. The rising costs of building materials and labour are also significant, and in recent years have significantly affected the total expenses associated with building a house.

It is worth noting that the relationship between the usable area of ​​a house and the total cost of its construction is directly proportional – the larger the area, the higher the costs. Overly ambitious plans for the construction of a house with a large area and high standard often lead to a situation in which the construction stretches over time, and its final visual effect significantly differs from the initial intentions. It happens that the final result does not meet expectations, and the house remains unfinished.

However, the latest data from the Statistics Poland show that in recent years, individual investors have increasingly approached building their own home with greater realism and pragmatism. There is a noticeable trend towards more sensible planning and building of houses that are better suited to the financial possibilities of investors and actual housing needs, which can result in a more stable and efficient course of the entire construction process.

Between 2013 and 2023, the average duration of building a single-family home in Poland fell from 57.9 months to 51.3 months, what means decrease from 4.8 to 4.3 years, or about 11%. This is an average annual decrease of about 1%. These changes, although seemingly small, indicate a noticeable improvement in the efficiency of building single-family homes. At the regional level, the largest decrease in the duration of building a single-family home was recorded in Dolnośląskie voivodeship, where the construction time decreased by 31.6%. Decreases of more than 20% were also recorded in other voivodeships, such as Podkarpackie (-25.9%), Śląskie (-25.4%), Kujawsko-pomorskie (-24.8%), Zachodniopomorskie (-23.6%), Lubelskie (-22.3%) and Wielkopolskie (-20.4%).

In turn, four voivodships recorded an extension of construction time. In two of them, the increase was small, not exceeding 1%, while in Łódzkie voivodeship the increase was as much as 45.7%, and in the Świętokrzyskie voivodeship as much as 14.4%. Such changes may indicate diversity in the availability of resources, local conditions and investor preferences.

If we arrange the voivodeships in ascending order by construction time, it turns out that in 2013 the fastest construction took place in the Łódzkie voivodeship. The dynamics of changes in recent years meant that in 2023 this voivodeship came 14th in terms of construction time, which also indicates a significant improvement in other regions of the country. On the other hand, the slowest construction of single-family houses is invariably in the Świętokrzyskie voivodeship, which remains at the end of this list throughout entire analysed period.

The increasingly shorter construction time of single-family residential buildings may indicate that individual investors are becoming more aware of the available technologies and construction methods that allow for faster and more efficient construction process. Adjusting to the dynamically changing costs of building materials and labour may also contribute to greater time efficiency of construction. In addition, the decrease in construction time may result from better planning, better project management and the use of a more organized approach to construction processes.

Analysis of changes in the duration of construction of single-family houses in Poland shows that individual investors are increasingly making decisions based on pragmatism and efficiency, which allows for faster construction process. Nevertheless, differences between voivodeships and individual cases indicate that there are still regions that are struggling with local challenges that may extend the construction time.

The changes in the approach of individual investors to the usable area of ​​the house they intend to build can best be monitored by analysing the average area of ​​a single-family house for which they obtain a building permit. In the period from 2013 to 2023, the average area of ​​a single-family house for which an individual investor obtained a building permit decreased from 148.5 m² to 141.4 m². This means a decrease in the average area by 7.1 m², which is a decrease of about 4.8%.

At the regional level, the largest decrease in the average area of ​​a house for which a building permit was obtained was recorded in Warmińsko-mazurskie voivodeship, where this area decreased by 11.2%. This may indicate an increase in investors’ awareness of construction costs and increased efficiency in using the available space. Only in Opolskie voivodeship the average area of ​​a house increased, from 153.3 m² in 2013 to 156.6 m² in 2023.

When we rank the voivodeships in ascending order of average area of ​​houses for which a building permit was issued, we can see that in both 2013 and 2023, the smallest houses were built in the Lubuskie voivodeship, while the largest in the Podlaskie voivodeship. The largest shift in such a ranking was observed in the voivodeship for which the largest change in the average area of ​​a house for which a building permit was issued was noted – i.e. Warmińsko-mazurskie. From tenth place in 2013, it moved to third in 2023.

The decreasing area of ​​houses for which individual investors obtain permits may indicate several important changes in the approach to building houses in Poland. First of all, investors are becoming more aware of their financial capabilities, which leads to planning smaller houses that are cheaper to build and maintain. In addition, this phenomenon may be the result of increasing costs of building materials and labour, which forces investors to make more rational decisions regarding the area and size of planned buildings.

The efficiency of individual investors in the construction of single-family houses can be analysed based on a comparison of the number of houses for which a building permit was issued with the number of houses whose construction was actually started. Assuming that the process of starting construction takes place shortly after obtaining an administrative decision, data from the same years was compared. A slight upward trend in the number of permits used was noted between 2013 and 2024. Comparing the values ​​from 2013 and 2024, we see an increase from 93.1% to 97.1%, but between these two years this value was subject to significant fluctuations. Moving the beginning of the analysed period to 2005, we observe a slightly more pronounced upward trend and a slightly larger difference between the first and last analysed year (92.4% and 97.1%, respectively).

The analysis of the ratio of constructions started to those completed tells us much more about the positive change in the effectiveness of individual investors. The average duration of construction of a single-family house in Poland by individual investors in the period 2013-2023 was 4.3 years. Therefore, a four-year time delay between the start of construction and its completion was taken into account. However, taking into account the variability of the duration of such construction (for example due to the region), individual years were not analysed, but four-year periods. The percentage of completed constructions (i.e. the ratio of the number of houses completed and the number of houses whose construction was started) in the period 2010-2013 (i.e. in the period when constructions started in the years 2006-2009 were completed) was 78.4%. By 2024, it increased significantly. The percentage of completed constructions in the period 2021-2024 was 91%. This indicates an improvement in the effectiveness of investment implementation by individual investors.

The analysis of the efficiency of individual investors in the implementation of single-family house construction indicates positive changes in this area, such as the growing share of used permits and a significant increase in the efficiency in completing started constructions. These changes are the result of market development, better access to resources, as well as the growing maturity of individual investors in planning and implementing construction projects.

In recent years, we have observed positive changes in the approach of individual investors to the construction of single-family houses. They are increasingly planning construction more realistically, taking into account their financial possibilities and actual housing needs. This is evidenced by data from the Statistics Poland, which show a decrease in the average duration of the construction of a single-family house, a decrease in the average area of ​​a house for which a building permit was issued, and an increase in the share of completed constructions.

In summary, the changes in the approach of individual investors to the construction of single-family houses in Poland in recent years show positive trends. Investors are becoming more aware of their financial possibilities, prefer smaller and probably more energy-efficient houses, and are more effective in implementing their construction projects. The increase in efficiency in terms of planning and completion of construction is the result of better access to construction technologies, better project management and the growing maturity of investors. Although there are still differences between regions, the data indicates general progress that may lead to further improvement in the situation in the future.

Hubert Horynek
Real Estate Market Analyst

The year 2024 brought significant changes to Poland’s housing market. Demand for both mortgage loans and apartments fluctuated, influenced primarily by political factors. Two government subsidy programmes for housing loans played a major role – the ‘Safe Loan 2%’ programme, introduced before the 2023 parliamentary elections, and the ‘0% Loan for a Start’ programme, announced for the post-election period.

During the first quarter of 2024, the trends observed at the end of the previous year continued, driven by the introduction of the ‘Safe Loan 2%’ subsidy programme. Mortgage loans under this programme were issued until the end of March 2024, having a crucial impact on the housing market during this period. In total, banks granted nearly 90 000 loan agreements under the programme, exceeding PLN 36 billion in value. The average amount of a granted loan was PLN 403 000, significantly higher than the market average before the programme’s introduction. The majority of loans were used for purchasing properties on the secondary market (over 45% of loans), while over 38% was granted for purchases on the primary market. Approx. 10% of the loans were intended for building a house or purchasing a plot for single-family housing development.

The programme’s structure and limitations led to higher participation among residents of smaller towns, particularly in central and western Poland. Among major cities, interest in loans under the programme among citizens of Warsaw was relatively low, while in Lodz, there was recorded the highest participation. This geographical distribution was influenced by two key factors: the demographic structure of each region’s population and the programme’s loan limits, which affected the availability of eligible properties.

By the end of the first quarter of 2024, banks had granted 64 504 new mortgage loans, totalling for PLN 26.876 billion. This was the second-highest mortgage financing result in Poland’s history, only behind the fourth quarter of 2023.

However, the ‘Safe Loan 2%’ programme also had negative consequences, which housing market experts had warned about long before its implementation. Between Q3 2023 and Q3 2024, the average price of apartments in Poland increased by 14.4%, making Poland one of the European leaders in housing price growth. Only Bulgaria recorded a higher increase. According to AMRON Centre’s data, price hikes in major cities were even more pronounced, exceeding 20% in Warsaw and Cracow. Paradoxically, in Lodz, the lowest price increase during this period was recorded, slightly over 10%.

In the following three quarters, the housing market was shaped by three key factors:

• the previous surge in demand triggered by the ‘Safe Loan 2%’ programme;
• prolonged uncertainty surrounding the new housing programme due to inconsistent government statements about its launch date, eligibility criteria and overall feasibility;
• expected interest rate cuts by the National Bank of Poland (NBP), which were continuously postponed.

The ‘0% Loan for a Start’ programme, intended to replace ‘Safe Loan 2%’, was one of the key election promises of the new government, initially planned for early 2024. Like its predecessor, it was designed for individuals meeting specific income and age criteria, with subsidies varying based on, among others, household size. However, differences in housing policy opinions within the ruling coalition soon became apparent, making it unlikely that the programme would be implemented as initially announced. Debates and disputes over the programme lasted throughout the year, with legislative proposals emerging in April and July. Ultimately, the programme remained in the planning stage but significantly influenced market behaviour and shaped housing market conditions throughout 2024.

As a result, prospective homebuyers and mortgage applicants, who had not taken advantage of the ‘Safe Loan 2%’ programme, found themselves in a relatively comfortable position. They could make rational decisions without additional pressure – either taking out a loan and buying a property under current conditions or waiting for a better opportunity. The key question was whether the new subsidy programme would be launched. Regardless, for buyers, the market presented two favourable scenarios: if the new programme was introduced, they could secure more attractive mortgage terms, but if it wasn’t, they could expect price drops, as predicted by various publications and some housing market experts. As a result, home sales slowed significantly starting in the second quarter. In April and May, primary market sales fell to levels comparable to the crisis period of late 2022 and early 2023. Mortgage lending also slowed, with banks granting 45 434 loans worth PLN 19.118 billion in Q2. Compared to Q1, this represented a 29.56% drop in loan volume and a 28.87% decline in total loan value.

Despite weakening demand, developers remained highly active. According to the Statistics Poland (GUS), developers began construction of 41 994 apartments in Q1 and added 38 597 more in Q2. New project approvals also remained strong, with 51 078 building permits issued in Q2, matching Q1 levels. Ultimately, housing supply grew, with over 48 000 units available for sale by the end of Q2.

The second half of 2024 was marked by stabilization, with fading hopes for the new subsidy programme and anticipation of NBP interest rate cuts. Sales remained steady but lower than before and as of November 2024, total primary market sales were down about 25% compared to the previous year.

Developers were consequently launching new projects, starting construction of 63 719 apartments and obtaining permits for 85 957 more (excluding December data). As a consequence, the number of available developer-listed apartments exceeded 50 000 by the end of the year.

Launching new investments and placing new dwellings on market despite slowdown in sale results might be considered as quite surprising. Crucial for this phenomena were two main factors: on one hand, developers’ confidence that the new subsidy programme would eventually launch and on the other – the need to replenish supply, particularly in the affordable housing segment, after the ‘Safe Loan 2%’ demand surge.

Despite the slowdown after Q1, the mortgage market remained strong as well. In 11 months of 2024, banks issued nearly 190 000 mortgage loans for the total value of PLN 79.4 billion. This might suggest that AMRON Centre’s forecast for 200 000 new mortgage loans worth PLN 84–85 billion in 2024 was realized. In terms of total loan value, this result matches the record-high level of 2021 and marks a 23% increase from the previous year.

Starting from Q2, weakened demand and rising supply in major Polish cities significantly slowed price growth or led to stabilization. According to preliminary AMRON data, in Q4 2024 the highest price increases did not exceed 2.5% and in cities like Wroclaw and Gdansk, even slight declines were noted. Over the entire year, the highest price increases (around 20%) were recorded in Cracow and Warsaw, while in Lodz and Poznan the lowest price growths (around 10%) were recorded. It’s essential to note that average price increases in 2024 were driven not only by absolute price changes, but also by a shift in transaction structure. The ‘Safe Loan 2%’ programme cumulated demand in specific property segments, whereas in later quarters increased purchases of higher-priced apartments was observed, further boosting average prices. Similarly, the current price stabilization is not solely due to a market cooldown, but also a return to balance in transaction structure, affecting both the primary and secondary markets.

In summary, 2024 was a year of rapid shifts – from an accelerated boom to uncertainty and hesitation. Despite this, both the housing market and mortgage market recorded strong results. What’s ahead in 2025? At least in the early months, uncertainty is expected to continue – both regarding the government’s new housing programme (at least until the presidential elections) and NBP interest rates (likely for a longer period).

Jerzy Ptaszyński
Research and Market Service Director

The invasion on Ukraine, launched by the Russian Federation on February 24, 2022, has had a profound impact on many aspects of social, political and economic life in Poland. The real estate market, particularly in Rzeszow and its surrounding areas, has undergone significant changes due to the influx of refugees and the increasing demand for various forms of accommodation.

Rzeszow, the capital of the Podkarpackie Voivodeship, has a unique location near the Ukrainian border. Following the outbreak of war, it became a frontline city, the first major urban centre at a relatively safe distance from the border. As a result, it was one of the main destinations for people fleeing the war. According to the report “Urban Hospitality: Rapid Growth, Challenges, and Opportunities – A Report on Ukrainian Refugees in Poland’s Largest Cities”, published by the Pawel Adamowicz Union of Polish Metropolises Analysis and Research Centre, in May 2022 Rzeszow became home for 117 000 Ukrainian citizens, which was 37% of the city’s population at that time. Only Warsaw, Wroclaw, Cracow, and Gdansk had higher numbers.

Since the escalation of Russian aggression in 2022, Rzeszow – specifically the airport in Jasionka, located north of the city – has become a key hub for military transport. A significant portion of Western military aid to Kyiv flows through this route. Jasionka has transformed into a strategic logistics centre, through which military equipment enters Poland before being transported to the Polish-Ukrainian border, just 100 km away.

The U.S. Army, aiming to protect this crucial site, has stationed soldiers from the 82. Airborne Division in Jasionka since the early days of the war. Currently, Jasionka is protected by American Patriot air defence systems and while the exact number of U.S. troops remains classified, estimates suggest at least 10 000 are stationed there. However, the total number of Americans in Podkarpackie is significantly higher when including the numerous civilian contractors supporting the construction of key military infrastructure. Additionally, many American soldiers have relocated to Poland with their families.

The influx of new residents presents both an investment challenge and an opportunity for the city. On one hand, the situation has required rapid infrastructure development, including expanding school and kindergarten capacity and enhancing services such as offices, retail and public transportation. On the other hand, a growing population has fuelled economic growth. Sectors such as hospitality and gastronomy, which faced difficulties before the war, experienced a boom in 2022. The rental market has also expanded, responding to increased demand.

RENT MARKET

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many apartments remained vacant. However, the war in Ukraine and the refugees pressure have significantly revitalized the rental market in Rzeszow. Initially, refugees sought temporary shelter with family and friends or in accommodations provided by charities and public institutions. Over time, many began looking for long-term housing, driving up rental prices. This demand extended to both small apartments and larger units that could accommodate entire families.

The arrival of American soldiers also played a role. Initially, they settled in towns near Jasionka Airport, but as available housing quickly ran out, demand surged. Today, finding a rental or even purchasing property in these areas is extremely difficult. Consequently, some soldiers, their families and civilian contractors have moved to the city of Rzeszow.

Another factor driving demand was the increasing difficulty for Poles to secure financing due to declining creditworthiness. Many potential buyers opted to rent instead. The surge in demand from Ukrainian refugees, coupled with a shrinking rental supply, led to sharp price increases. Over the course of a year, the number of rental listings in Rzeszow on classified ad portals dropped fourfold.

Until the end of 2021, rental rates for both apartments and single-family homes remained stable, with quarterly changes in the average rent per square meter not exceeding 2-3%. However, from early 2022, rental rates experienced dynamic quarterly increases of 7-10%. Rzeszow recorded one of the highest rent hikes in Poland in 2022. Over the year (Q4 2022 vs. Q4 2021), average rental prices for both apartments and houses rose by 28%. The upward trend continued in subsequent periods, albeit at a slightly slower pace. Over the past three years (Q4 2024 vs. Q4 2021), rental prices have increased by 44% for apartments and over 60% for single-family homes.

CHART 1. AVERAGE ASKING RENTAL RATES PER SQM BY PROPERTY TYPE IN RZESZOW (2019-2024) [PLN]

source: Own analysis based on otodom.pl and morizon.pl

The shifting demographic structure of Rzeszow has also shaped the real estate market. Before the war, students comprised the largest group of renters, leading to high demand for one- and two-room apartments. However, the influx of Ukrainian families increased demand for larger units. Interest in three- and four-room apartments, particularly in well-connected areas, has risen significantly. In 2021, studio apartments accounted for 17% of rental listings, while two-room units made up 52%. By last year, these figures had dropped to just 4% and 33%, respectively. Meanwhile, the share of three-room apartments rose from 29% to 42% and four-room apartments from 2% to 17%.

SALE OF RESIDENTIAL HOUSING

The influx of foreigners has also impacted the property sales market in Rzeszow. Initially, most newcomers sought temporary shelter, but over time, some refugees decided to settle permanently in Poland. As the population grew, interest in purchasing homes increased. Ukrainians, as well as Poles, began seeing Rzeszow as a stable and secure place for investment, driving up property prices—particularly in central locations.

Unlike the rental market, property sales prices did not see dramatic changes in 2022. Immediately after the war broke out (Q1 and Q2 2022), the average transaction price per square meter dropped slightly by 2-2.5% quarter-over-quarter before gradually rising again. By Q4 2022, average apartment prices in Rzeszow had returned to pre-war levels, with a total three-year increase of 17%. Single-family homes saw a minor 0.5% price drop in Q2 2022, but prices generally followed a steady upward trajectory. By the end of 2022, home prices had risen 17% compared to pre-war levels and over the past three years they increased by 13%.

CHART 2. AVERAGE TRANSACTION PRICES PER SQM BY PROPERTY TYPE IN RZESZOW (2019-2024) [PLN]

source: AMRON Centre

CONSTRUCTION MARKET

Due to the city’s growing appeal, Rzeszow has also become an attractive market for investors. The rising population and increased housing demand have spurred developers to intensify their activities, launching new residential projects and investing in infrastructure. Many of these projects aim not only to meet housing needs, but also to accommodate businesses and institutions adapting to new realities.

The long-term presence of U.S. soldiers in the region has significantly influenced suburban real estate markets. In villages near Jasionka Airport, such as Jasionka, Tajęcina, Podbór, Trzebownisko, and Zaczernie, intensive construction activity has been observed. Developers, recognizing the growing demand, have started building new homes and apartments, targeting military personnel as potential buyers or tenants. Property prices in these areas have surged, sparking mixed reactions among locals. Some welcomed high land-sale profits, while others were frustrated by sudden price hikes that made homeownership more challenging. This trend is unlikely to change soon, as the presence of U.S. troops in the Rzeszow area is expected to continue for up to 10 years.

FUTURE OUTLOOK

The war in Ukraine has significantly shaped the development of Rzeszow and its surroundings. Positioned as a logistical hub, the city has undergone rapid transformation over the past three years. Plans to make Podkarpackie and Rzeszow key players in Ukraine’s future reconstruction provide further economic growth prospects. However, the future of the local real estate market remains closely tied to geopolitical developments. One thing is certain: Rzeszow has undergone deep, irreversible changes and will never be the same again.

Agnieszka Pilcicka
Senior Real Estate Market Analyst