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When investing on the real estate market or buying a property for own use, it should be remembered that the purchaser becomes the owner of the rights to the property. However, before signing a contract it is worth checking what rights and restrictions are imposed on the subject of the transaction. All necessary information can be found in the land and mortgage register of a property, available at the district court competent for the given area. Special attention should be paid to limited rights in rem, which include usufruct, servitude, pledge, cooperative ownership right to premises and mortgage. Among the servitudes stand out: the land servitude, the transmission servitude and the personal servitude, which is the subject of analysis in this article. In addition to the servitude, it is worth considering a life agreement. What could be a better form of security for the seller: a personal servitude or a life agreement?

Personal servitude

According to Article 296 of the Civil Code ‘(...) real estate may be encumbered in favour of a designated natural person by law, the content of which corresponds to the content of the land servitude (personal servitude)’. It follows that the essence of personal servitude is the possibility of encumbering the property in favour of a particular individual, which involves three possible cases:

• the person entitled to personal servitude may use the encumbered property to a specified extent,
• the owner of the encumbered property is restricted in his ability to carry out certain activities in relation to it,
• the owner of the encumbered real estate is not allowed to enforce certain rights which he is entitled to with respect to the proprietary real estate (that is, the one for whom the servitude is established), on the basis of the provisions on the content and is enforce of ownership.

The basis for establishing a personal servitude is a contract between the parties. The parties that can be distinguished by the use of the right on personal servitude are:

• entitled by virtue of personal servitude (a specific, named, natural person, not an owner),
• each owner of a property encumbered with personal servitude.

The law on personal servitude often refers to the law on land servitude. The main difference is that in case of a personal servitude, the person who is entitled is a particular individual, and not every owner of the property in charge, as in case of a land servitude. This means that a personal servitude is inalienable, non-transferable, not subject to inheritance and expires at the latest upon the death of the right-holder (it is a right of due date). Personal servitude cannot be acquired by positive prescription.

The most common type of personal servitude is residential servitude. Suppose Mrs. Sophie sells the apartment to her daughter. She wants to secure her own future, so the condition for her daughter to acquire the property is to establish a personal servitude for Mrs. Sophie. The contract clearly states that Mrs. Sophie can use all the rooms in the apartment, all the equipment and will contribute to the charges for the used utilities. Such a scenario is quite common, but a person not related to the owner may also be entitled to the servitude.

A person entitled to residential servitude may take a spouse and minor children who may remain in the apartment even after their majority. The entitled person may also take other persons, but only if they are maintained by him or if they are necessary for running the household. As mentioned earlier, personal servitude is not subject to inheritance, however, according to the Civil Code, it can be agreed that after the death of the person entitled to the servitude, his children, parents and spouse will be entitled to the residential servitude.

Another important aspect is the possibility of changing a personal servitude into a pension. This is possible when the right holder commits gross misuse in the is enforcement of his right. A personal servitude cannot be completely abolished because of its nature as maintenance, as it would have the effect of worsening the life of the person entitled, but the rules on land servitude apply here.

Life agreement

According to the provisions of the Civil Code, a life agreement, like a personal servitude, is intended to provide a place of residence for the person selling the property. The main difference is that the subject matter of a life agreement is not only the right to live in apartment but also the assurance of life support. In practice, this means that the purchaser should accept the seller as a lodger, provide him with food, clothing, accommodation, access to the necessary utilities, as well as take care of his illness and cover funeral expenses.

The basis for the establishment of the life agreement is a contract between the parties. The parties are:

• the seller of the property (entitled), who may also reserve right to live in apartment for the benefit of a close person, e. g. spouse,
• the buyer of the property.

As with personal servitude, it is possible to convert the life agreement into a life annuity. This can be done when the relationship between the parties does not allow close contact with each other. In exceptional cases, at the request of the seller or the buyer, the life agreement may be terminated by the court.

Summary

Both the personal servitude and the life agreement are intended to ensure that the seller can live in the property that is the subject of the transaction. The fundamental difference remains the way this right is enforcement. In case of a personal servitude, the entitled person may live and use the facilities in the encumbered property, but he covers the costs of his maintenance. The right to live in sold apartment (life agreement), on the other hand, is extended to ensure the entitled with a maintenance and proper care.

Daria Łaskowska
Junior Maintenance and Development Specialist

There are as many reasons for investing in real estate, as investors, who decided to do so. Most of all real estate is a physical asset that can be seen, touched or felt. That physical aspect is particularly important in periods of financial turmoil, when decreasing exchange quotations lead some investors to hasty and ill-considered decisions. Secondly, investment in real estate protects the capital from inflation, which is mostly due to decrease in value of fiduciary money, much easier to print than actual increase of housing stock. Thirdly, real estate can generate constant and regular revenue, which for most of investors is the key argument for investing. Finally, investing in real estate may be financed by relatively cheap mortgage loan.

But are the above arguments still valid? Is investing in real estate right now, at the pandemic situation, still possible and profitable? Is it still true that purchase of a flat for rent will secure our money and ensure peace of mind?

The most important decision to take when investing in a dwelling for rent is choosing the right property. But what is ‘the right property’? From the owner’s perspective, the crucial issue to be handled is to ensure a maximum occupancy. Problems with finding a tenant are currently related to flats located in city centres, which were prepared for short-term rent, mostly for tourists. Owners of those flats dealt with lack of tenants already in spring, during the first COVID-19 wave. Most of them made their dwellings available for a longer period of time, hoping for an income high enough to pay at least part of fixed costs (administrative fees, mortgage installments etc.) and believing to return to a short-term rent business soon. However, it is already known that even if pandemic stops at the end of the year, tourism industry will be recovering during next few years. Additionally, it is worth remembering about possible new legal regulations concerning short-term rent principals to be developed as a consequence of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) judgement as of September 22, 2020. Taking all the aforementioned arguments into account, it seems that the short term rental may not be as profitable as it used to be just before the pandemic. What is important, the problem concerns dwellings in the best locations and therefore much more expensive compared to the average flats on the market, which makes the profitability issue even more critical for the owners.

The owners of flats rented per rooms are in a similarly problematic situation. Their tenants are mainly students, who, due to distance-learning, did not return to the academic cities in crowds. Obviously, there are some exceptions in that group, so the situation of owners of flats rented per rooms is not the worst, but still they have to take into account lower demand and, in consequence, reductions in rent rates and high fluctuation of tenants. Beside students, the other group of room tenants are foreign employees, mostly from Ukraine, but the current pandemic situation significantly decreased their number in Poland and therefore the demand for rent from that group of tenants is presently very limited.

In conclusion, what type of dwelling should be considered when investing in flat for rent? Standard one, which means easy to rent at any time and easy to sell in the future. Studios and two-room flats, preferably with separated kitchen, are the best option, as they will always be the most popular among both tenants and purchasers.

Time of uncertainty and economic imbalance is usually conductive to so-called ‘market opportunities’. Some owners, due to bad financial condition, may be forced to the emergency sale of the property. Others, even if not forced, may be concerned about the possibility of concluding a transaction in difficult market conditions and therefore may be eager to negotiate the price in purpose to finalize the transaction and end the feeling of insecurity.

Increased number of enforcement proceedings and consumer bankruptcies may be expected as a consequence of the post-pandemic crisis. However, properties sold under the enforced debt collection procedures will appear on the market at the earliest in mid-2021 because of the standard duration of such procedures, additionally prolonged by the slowed courts performance during the pandemic. Although the system of e-bailiff auctions of the National Bailiff Council was already launched, there is hardly any housing auction available there.

In case the investor plans to take out a mortgage loan to finance the transaction in lesser or greater part, it would be reasonable to verify current mortgage lending conditions and check the. Coronavirus pandemic and a lock-down of several sectors of the economy forced banks to change their lending policies. And as long as rules related to the properties as collaterals remained unchanged, rules concerning creditworthiness have changed significantly. Such economy sectors, as tourism, transportation, hospitality industry or gastronomy, are currently rated more risky, as well as all types of civil law contracts and self-employment. That is why it is important to find out in advance whether a mortgage loan is even accessible.

Some banks increased their requirements related to the down-payment. At the same time, due to the Monetary Policy Council’s decisions, WIBOR 3M and WIBOR 6M decreased to 0.22% and 0.25% respectively. According to Bankier.pl, the average mortgage margin of a loan with a 10% down-payment in Q2 2020 accounted for 2.63% and it was higher by 0.4% comparing to the average margin recorded in the same period last year. It means that at the current level of interest rates, repayment of such a loan should not be a problem, but it must be noted that presently mortgage loans are the highest-priced in the last two years. If interest rates start to increase, the amount of the installment may significantly influence the profitability of the investment and in such case refinancing will be the only reasonable solution.

When concluding the purchase transaction during the pandemic, particular attention should be paid to a detailed schedule of preparing the necessary documents. It is a good idea to choose a notary in advance and specify a list of documents indispensable for the transaction. It should be considered that the time necessary for obtaining a document is presently longer than usual, due to delays related with rotational work, e-appointments and necessary prearrangements related to the visit in the administration offices. At present, it takes approximately a month to collect all necessary documents, which should be taken into account when defining a date of a transaction in preliminary agreement.

In a pandemic situation, lessors will have to accept a decrease in profitability of rent in the nearest future, both due to smaller number of potential tenants, as well as predicted recession and economic disturbances. Reduced profitability will affect not only real estate, but all forms of investments. That phenomena is observable for a long time on the example of bank deposits, the interest rates of which oscillates between 0.01% and 2%, as well as 10-years state treasury bonds with current rate of return at the level of 1.7% in the firs interest period and 1% + inflation with annual capitalization of interests.

The shortage of flats in Poland is still huge – according to different estimations it amounts from 640 thousand to over 3.2 million of housing units, and therefore the demand for flats for rent will not suddenly disappear because of the pandemic or the economic crisis. When investing in real estate, the profitability should be calculated in a few-years perspective. And the analyses of the prices on real estate market allow to believe that the real estate may be a vehicle to transfer current savings into the future with no loss and moreover, to bring regular income in uncertain times.

Jakub Kaczor
Platform of Mortgage Borrowers Support Coordinator

On September 19, another amendment to the construction law entered into force. Changes introduced by the Act amending the construction law as of February 13, 2020 have a very wide scope and their purpose is not only to simplify and accelerate the investment process, but also to organize several important areas of regulations related to the construction and use of buildings. There are such important issues among them, as legalization of unauthorized construction, facilitating the access to infrastructure networks or the requirements for obtaining building permits and notifying construction works.

One of the most far-reaching changes, which is intended to reduce the number of documents needed at the stage of submitting a building permit application or notification, is the division of the construction design. According to the new regulations, the construction design will consist of three parts: plot or land development design, architectural and construction design and technical design. In the new mode, at the stage of issuing a building permit or notifying the intention to start an investment, the administrative body will accept the plot or land development plan and the architectural and construction design, while the technical design will be submitted by the investor only at the stage of the use permit procedure. The designer will be responsible for compliance with all three parts of the design documentation.

The Act also introduces unified catalogues of facilities and works that do not require a building permit and can be performed either on the basis of a notification, or even without it. The latter include, among others, parcel lockers and devices for sale up to a height of 3 meters, including ATMs and ticket machines. However, a building permit will be required for all construction works performed at a facility entered in the register of monuments, and construction works in the area entered in the register of monuments may be carried out on the basis of a notification.

Changes have also been introduced with regard to the rules for granting consent to derogate from the provisions of the technical conditions to be met by construction objects and their location, and technical conditions for construction objects use. Until now, such a possibility existed only prior to the issuance of the building permit. The act amending the construction law act introduced possibility to obtain the consent for derogations also before the change of the building permit decision. In addition, the new regulations exclude the possibility of obtaining a consent for a derogation in case of an ongoing procedure of legalization of unauthorized construction.

The amendment to the construction law also introduces new solutions in the field of procedures for connecting new investments to gas, electricity, heating, water and sewage networks. Introduction of deadlines for issuing conditions for connection to the water supply and sewage network is to guarantee their improvement. In case of a single-family residential building, the binding deadline for issuing connection conditions will be 14 days, while in case of other investments – 30 days. If these deadlines are exceeded, the water and sewage company will be subject to financial penalties. The water and sewage company will also not be able to refuse to accept a connection made in accordance with the issued terms and conditions, or to charge the investor for acceptance and inclusion of water and sewage connections. The ban on charging fees will also apply to issuing, changing, updating or transferring the conditions for connection to the water and sewage network to another entity. The terms of connection will be valid for two years. Verification of the possibility of connecting the investment to the heating network will be the responsibility of the designer.

The improvements provided for by the new regulations also include procedures for legalizing unauthorized construction. The new, simplified procedure applies to those facilities, the construction of which was completed at least 20 years ago. It assumes that the legalization of unauthorized construction is free of charge, and its basic requirement is to provide a declaration of the right to use the property for construction purposes, a declaration of the construction completion date, as-built inventory and technical expertise of the facility. The procedure does not apply to those facilities, for which a demolition order had been issued prior to the entry into force of the new regulations. The new law also introduced a new procedure for inspection and construction supervision in the event of illegal use of a building structure, along with the determination of the amount of penalties that may be imposed in such a case.

The act amending the Construction Law also introduced new solutions as regards to the possibility of invalidating the decision on the building permit and use permit. The regulations in force so far made it possible to declare these decisions invalid without any time limits. At present, it will no longer be possible if 5 years have passed from the date of delivery or announcement in case of the building permit or the date, on which the occupancy permit became final.

The above-mentioned changes to the construction law are the most important part of the amendment to the regulations that recently came into force. Apart from them, the Act removes the need to use a template of the building permit, introduces new requirements for the fire safety of buildings in the event of a change in their use, or defines a significant deviation from the approved plot or land development design or architectural and construction design or other building permit conditions.

The new regulations will not only streamline and accelerate the investment process, but should also allow for unification of some of its procedures on a national scale and will make them much more readable and thus – make the investors’ life easier.

Jerzy Ptaszyński
Research and Market Service Director

Short-term rental has become a more and more popular option of accommodation per night. Development of services such as Airbnb or Booking.com has strongly contributed to it. Since the very beginning of that type of accommodation, tourists have been very enthusiastic about it. This trend is apparent in big cities and touristic destinations. Business dependent on renting a flat for short period generates higher profits than a traditional long-term rental. This is a reason why the investors’ activity in this scope has increased significantly within few last years, both for the benefit of tourists and business travellers. Until now, this market has been growing. From year to year we could see the increase in number of short-term rental offers on booking platforms. With a new kind of activity on the market, new challenges appear as well. Lack of legal regulations, conflict with cities governments or neighbour issues on the short-term rent market are still being discussed and remain unsolved. Outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic has been an additional, strong blow to be dealt with by the investors.

SHORT-TERM RENTAL AND THE LAW

On September 22, 2020 a judgement of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU). concerning the short-term rental in France, was issued. The Court did not contested the French legal provisions, which give the authorities the possibility to impose regulations restricting the activities of people who handle the short-term rental. This issue concerned the provisions of the French Construction and Housing Code, which makes it possible to change a function of dwelling located in municipalities with more than 200 thousands inhabitants only after obtaining an appropriate permission from local authorities, under threat of penalty.

According to the French law, multiple short-term rental of fully furnished flat with no check in, is actually a change in function of a property. The CJEU judgement is a response to the doubts of the French national court regarding the compliance of those requirements with the EU law. In its judgement the Court stated: ‘Domestic rules, which require a special permission on short-term rental for clients without check-in, is consistent with EU law’. Thereby the Member States have the right to create regulations for people who want to rent their flat per day. As emphasized by the CJEU, implementation of restrictions on short-term rental will serve a housing policy in a given country and aims to counter a lack of apartments for long-term rental. In case of Paris, local government may impose penalties for not having a proper permit. The French case, which was placed on the CJEU’s list, gave the green light to other member states, including Poland, as our government is considering to enact restrictions regulating this kind of business activity.

A lot of European cities have brought their own rules into force. They concern, for example, number of days for which the premises can be made available in the form of short-term rental, location of the accommodation in a given area or duty to have an appropriate permission for conducting this type of activity. The group of cities with this kind of local regulations includes, apart from Paris, also Belin, Amsterdam, London, Barcelona and others.

As announced previously by the Polish Ministry of Development, the act regulating the short-term rental principles is to be developed. According to the assumptions, a central register of accommodation facilities will be created, which will include also a list of short-term rented premises. Their owners will not have to apply for a permit, but they will have to submit a notification under a penalty of a fine. The main aim of this law will be to counteract unfair competition from investors, who pose a threat to legally operating accommodation facilities. The register is planned to be published in 2021. It means that the current legal status of the short-term rental will probably remain unchanged during the 2021 tourist season. Short-term rental also causes controversy not only in terms of restrictions on business activity, but also of a tax nature. It turns out that currently many people, who purchase real estate for tourist rental, do not set up a business and do not pay the related taxes.

SHORT TERM RENTAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT

Raising popularity of short-term rental, mainly in attractive tourist destinations, not only harms the hospitality industry, but also, above all, ordinary inhabitants. Flats for short-term rental are very often located in multi-family residential buildings, where other people live their everyday lives as well. According to local government officials, dwellings rented for a short time should be classified as tourist facilities. Currently, there are no legal regulations allowing for such treatment. At the moment, this form of lease does not generate any tax revenues for municipalities. Local governments would like to introduce regulations, allowing to control the short-term rental, also in terms of finances. Currently there are no tools for the enforcement of local or health fees. Local government bodies may only call for its payment.

The city authorities, mainly in Krakow and Sopot, where the short-term rent market is quite significant, are in favour of introducing a register of short-term rental facilities. They also appeal to the government to accelerate work on new regulations. They propose that the solutions would work similarly to how they function in the field of counteracting alcoholism, which allow the local government to introduce local regulations, like limitations on sale of alcohol.

SHORT TERM RENTAL AND CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC

On the real estate market, the coronavirus pandemic has hit the short-term rentals the fastest. As a consequence of introducing the state of epidemic threat in Poland, in the period from mid-March until May, there was a ban on short-term rentals. In this time lessors could rent an accommodation only for people who have been under quarantine. Therefore, most of landlords during this period remained without income.

The borders closure and the ban on flights, thereupon the inhibition of tourist traffic, was a strong hit to this market. Tourist were a main group of guests who rent flats for short time. Moreover, a significant number of companies stopped sending their employees on business trips because they converted into online meetings. Business travellers were also in a group of potential clients for short-term rent market.

With defrosting the economy and loosening the restrictions, the number of people who prefer short-term rental as an alternative to a hotel has increased. However, mostly they were local tourists. This year, the number of tourists from abroad, who constituted a significant percentage of guests in this kind of facilities, was clearly lower. Polish tourists chose to spend holidays in the country more often than they used to do so in previous years, but eventually the gap was not filled in 100%. As a result, decreases in annual profits from this premises should be expected. This can be a particularly difficult situation for those investors, who took out mortgage loans to buy apartments for short-term rental.

A new phenomenon on the market, which has recently arisen as an alternative to the short-term rental, is a medium-term rental. Some investors, who have rented flats per day, now make them available for potential tenants for a period of approximately three months. They do not want to rent them for a longer period because they hope that situation will improve. This option seems to be quite difficult to implement as hardly anyone needs a flat for a period of several months. Moreover, contracts concluded for such a period are often unfavourable for tenants, because the landlord can terminate it very quickly. This is due to the fact that landlords are mainly interested in rental for days, which is the most profitable for them.

A tourist voucher is a form of assistance for the domestic tourism sector, which can be used by landlords of short-term housing. However, appropriate conditions must be met for customers to redeem the voucher in a given facility. Payment with a voucher will be allowed only in premises rented by a business entity. Hence, landlords interested in getting profit from this program, will have to register their business activity. This can become a tool for reducing a ‘shadow economy’. In this way short-term rental mark may be regulated.

It should be noted that families with children more often choose holiday destinations at the seaside or in the mountains than in big cities. That is why owners of the apartments for short-term rent located in popular holiday destinations are more likely to benefit from the tourist voucher programme than those, who offer a short-term rent big cities.

CONCLUSIONS

Short-term rental is dependent on many fluctuations, which negatively affect the business. Competition, seasonality, legal regulations, even unpredictable situations such as the coronavirus pandemic undoubtedly inhibited the aspirations of those, who wanted to invest their capital in short-term rental. However, this sector will continuously grow. Certainly, over time the new regulations at the statutory level will be brought into force. Probably local authorities will have a lot of autonomy in relation to detailed solutions. As far as now, their entry into force seems not quite imminent.

Agnieszka Bartoszewska
Real Estate Market Analyst

Quite recently, the housing market in Poland was recording an impressive boom and the prospect of a correction seemed remote. Dwellings prices kept rising, flats had been sold really quickly and developers willingly started new investments. But then the coronavirus-related restrictions came, the entire economy unexpectedly stopped and all real estate participants held their breath waiting for what would happen next. Property prices have been a hot topic since the beginning of the pandemic. Potential home buyers were looking forward to discounts and bargains. Meanwhile, summer months did not bring a significant change on the housing market. After a temporary stagnation in April, resulting directly from a lockdown that made transactions impossible to conclude, the market has been slowly stabilizing.

BUYERS’ RESTREINT

Undoubtedly, in Q2 2020 the demand for housing has declined significantly. In some cities, the number of concluded transactions was lower even by 60% than in the previous quarter. Many potential buyers decided to postpone their decisions, fearing of a serious economic crisis in the country, losing their jobs and the ‘second wave’ of COVID-19, but at the same time expecting some price decreases. And this was quite rational. Another, quite numerous group that refrained from housing purchases were people who lost their creditworthiness due to the tightening of banks’ lending policies. At the same time, cancellation of lectures at universities and the return of students to their hometowns, as well as a decrease in tourist traffic and thus the interest in short-term rental (for days), might slightly limit the interest in purchasing dwellings for investment purposes.

Theoretically, a lower demand results in a lower prices. However, it has not happened so far. Banks are slowly easing the lending conditions and consumer confidence index is increasing. After a significant decline in dwellings interest in March and April, a systematic improvement has been observed since May. According to Google Trends, the popularity index of ‘flat’ in the Google search engine in the six largest Polish cities at the beginning of September this year was even higher than in 2019 – record-breaking year in terms of demand.

CHART 1. POPULARITY INDEX OF ‘FLAT’ IN THE SIX LARGEST CITIES IN POLAND

source: AMRON Centre based on Google Trends data (average for the 6 largest cities: Warsaw, Wroclaw, Poznan, Kraków, Gdansk, Lodz) – as for September 7, 2020

HOUSING MARKET RECOVERY

After a temporary weakening in housing market results in April, the following months were the time of catching up. According to data published by the Central Statistical Office, the results of housing market in June and July returned to the average values recorded in the last record-breaking year. Only in July this year constructions of 21.7 thousand apartments were started – by 60% more in comparison to April, reaching the result noted in the same month last year. In July, developers started construction of 12 thousand dwellings – twice as much as in April 2020 and by 1% more than in July 2019. In the period from January to July 2020, construction of 122 thousand dwellings was started, i.e. by 11% less in relation to the same period of the previous year, while developers recorded a decrease by 16% and started the construction of 66 thousand flats in the same period. However, it can be assumed as a good result.

The results in the number of construction permits issued were also really good. In June and July it amounted to the level close to the monthly results recorded in this category last year (despite the fact that July brought a slight decrease on a monthly basis). From the beginning of the year to July 2020, 147 thousand building permits were issued, i.e. only by 4.5% less than in the corresponding period of 2019. In the same period, developers obtained 88 thousand permits, which was by almost 5% less on an annual basis. So the results of housing market have actually returned to pre-lockdown levels.

CHART 2. DEVELOPERS’ SECTOR PERFORMANCE

source: Central Statistical Office

DYNAMICS OF PRICE GROWTH SLOWED DOWN

Price decreases were often mentioned as one of the inevitable effects of the coronavirus pandemic, but it was not visible so far, both in offers and transactions. The lockdown in March and April limited the activity on the housing market for a while and stopped price increases, but no significant decreases was observed.

A considerable drop in the number of transactions concluded on the housing market in the first months of the pandemic forced the supply side to take decisive action. Developers reacted much faster, but they have got more tools to fight for customers than the sellers on secondary market, so did not have to lower dwellings prices. Developers offered, among others, promotions such as ‘storage room for free’, better purchase conditions (e.g. favourable payment schedule: 10/90, 20/80 or 30/70, extension of booking period, the possibility of cost-free cancellation of booking) or temporary, small price reductions for selected, less attractive premises. Moreover, there is no space for price decreases on primary market currently, because building land prices continue to rise, as well as labour and building materials costs. Sellers on secondary market are generally less flexible and they react later, strongly defending prices of their apartments. Good bargains although could be found there as well, but quite rarely.

CHART 3. AVERAGE TRANSACTION PRICES PER 1 SQM OF A HOUSING UNIT ON SECONDARY MARKET IN THE LARGEST CITIES

source: AMRON Centre

Temporary and minimal declines in the average transaction price of 1 sqm of dwellings on secondary market were recorded only in April this year – in Wroclaw a decrease by 1.90% was noted, in Poznan by 1.77% and in Warsaw by 0.66% in relation to the previous month. Currently, in large cities rather a stabilization of housing prices with a slight upward trend is noted. During the summer months, minimal increases (by 1-1.5%) in the average transaction prices per 1 sqm on secondary market were noted in the largest Polish cities. A slightly higher increase was recorded only in Lodz, where the average transaction price of 1 sqm increased in August this year by 2.96% in comparison to July. However, it should be mentioned that the analysed volumes in recent few months were low, as the number of conceded transactions has decreased significantly, and data from the real estate market are delayed. Therefore, a view of the past few months on the market is not complete yet.

Currently, no indications of sudden change anytime soon are observed on the market, although situation is uncertain. The economy is recovering, the activity of the housing market participants is steadily growing, and slight changes in prices recorded so far on both primary and secondary markets cannot have any real impact on potential buyers. Of course, there are many unknown factors, and at the moment it is impossible to predict the ultimate impact of the pandemic on the whole economy. The real estate market is characterized by inertia, so there is still a risk that in the long term perspective, the factors causing the decline in real estate prices will prevail. Further development of the situation not only on the housing market, but also in the entire economy, will largely depend on a possible ‘second wave’ of COVID-19 and the related restrictions. Only a large disproportion between the supply and demand can convince sellers to change the price policy, but even in such a situation we do not expect significant decreases, but only by a few percent.

Agnieszka Pilcicka
Senior Real Estate Market Analyst

Increases in energy prices and heating costs of buildings significantly influence the growing interest in modern technologies that allow to reduce these expenses. In order to lessen the house’s demand for heat, it is good to get a closer look at the concept of an energy-efficient building.

ENERGY-SAVING HOUSE

source: https://www.dobrzemieszkaj.pl

The operating costs should be considered as early as at the stage of choosing a house project. Then we should think about how to locate the house on the plot and what solutions to apply to reduce heating bills during the operation.

In order to increase the energy efficiency of the house it is worth to locate the day zone (living room and dining room) from the south or south-west side of the plot. Such a location and the use of large glazing provide the increased thermal comfort of the building. Rooms such as bathroom, dressing room, locker and garage do not need much light, so they can be located on the north side. An optimal location for a bedroom and a kitchen is the east side, because these rooms will be sunny in the morning and cooler in the evening. The house should be divided not only into functional but also thermal zones. The temperature difference between the adjacent rooms should not be too big.

If we want to reduce our heating bills, we should opt for a house with a small area. A smaller house means less heat loss, which is related to the surface of the partitions, through which it flows out. The surface of the partitions also depends on the shape of the house. The shape of the energy-saving building is characterized by a simple, compact body, usually based on a rectangular plan. It is a good idea to check the shape factor of the building (A/V). It is the ratio of the area of all partitions to the volume of the building. The value of the coefficient should be as small as possible.

An energy-efficient house should be at least one-floor building, because a significant part of the energy escapes through the roof. Such a solution will help to minimize heat loss, which depends on the ratio of the roof area to the usable area – it is the largest in one-storey houses. The roof of the low-energy house should be straight and flat, without any kinks that would cause the biggest heat loss.

It is essential to use appropriate building materials that will protect the house from heat loss. During the construction of an energy-efficient house, materials with high thermal mass (e.g. brick, concrete and stone) are used. However, materials with low thermal mass, such as steel and wood, are not suitable.

It is very important to ensure an adequate degree of thermal insulation. In order to prevent additional heat from being given away to outside through external partitions (walls, windows, roof and floor), whether thermal bridges (incorrectly thermally insulated fragments of external partitions), it is necessary to ensure that the insulation is tight. Insulation materials are constantly being improved to have less thickness and better properties.

When choosing an energy-efficient house, it is worth to decide on additional internal installations, which increase the energy efficiency of the building and have a large impact on reducing the costs associated with its heating. Such solutions include solar installations, mechanical ventilation and floor heating. In energy efficient houses, modern devices with high efficiency are the source of heat (e.g. heat pumps).

An important aspect is the heating energy demand – how much energy is needed to provide comfortable living conditions. According to the current regulations, an energy-efficient house needs a maximum of 70 kWh/sqm per year. This is 50 kWh/sqm less than a traditional single-family house, but 55 kwH/sqm more than a passive house. However, it is worth remembering that passive houses acquire energy passively, without additional installations.

The cost of an energy-efficient house is much higher than the construction of a traditional house. However, the investment costs will pay back in a few years through low operating costs. Energy efficient house is not only a fashionable construction. With constantly growing bills for heating it becomes a great idea to save money. It seems very probable that energy-saving houses will soon become a new standard.

Dominika Gocalińska
Customer Relations Specialist

Real estates are perceived as good investment objects. According to the average Pole, who does not invest professionally in shares, bonds or his own company, investing on the real estate market is the best and the safest way of making a profit. The current interest on deposit accounts in Polish banks is at a record low level and does not protect savings from inflation. Therefore it is not surprising that Poles are interested in alternative forms of investment and very often choose real estates due to relatively low risk of loss. However, the decision to invest in these assets should be preceded by a thorough analysis of market characteristics and an understanding of its advantages and disadvantages. Unfortunately, in times of the COVID-19 pandemic, when an increased risk of panic and strong emotions must be taken into account, investing without a prior analysis may be highly inefficient.

Has the pandemic caused the decrease in transaction prices on the real estate market? How is the rental market in Poland currently shaped? What are the ways to invest in real estate? This article answers the above questions.

THE SITUATION ON THE REAL ESTATE MARKET IN POLAND

Real estate professionals’ forecasts for fluctuations in transaction prices after the outbreak of the pandemic were extremely different. Shortly after the introduction of the government restrictions some of them predicted a price cut of 10-15%. The developers were convinced that the declines would not occur or, if any, would be insignificant. The president of the AMRON Centre, Jacek Furga, Ph.D. believes that no major changes on the housing market should not be expected any time soon. The price correction may take place at a later stage in response to the worse financial situation of Poles. The subprime crisis (2007-2009) had reversed price drops by 20%, but it is unlikely to occur now. In Poland between 2005 and 2008 we observed a speculative bubble and more than 100% price increases. In contrast, the growth in transaction prices over the last few years is less spectacular and does not exceed an average of 50%. In the current economic situation, large falls in house prices could only occur with both a huge economic collapse and very high interest rates. However, it probably will not happen.

The absence of large price reductions on the housing market does not mean that there may be no opportunity to buy a property at the non-market price. Bargain purchase might happen regardless of the crisis. Currently it is much more likely to find an attractive offer on the commercial real estate market, where 50% drops are being observed in some locations.

Real estates in Poland are expensive for most citizens. The housing accessibility index, which reflects the ratio between the average monthly salary and the average transaction price, is very low compared to other European countries. Despite the improvement in labour market conditions in recent years and the systematic increase in the housing accessibility index, the average Pole has to make savings for a long time or take out a mortgage loan to purchase a property. Moreover, the rental market in Poland is relatively small.

THE RESIDENTIAL RENTAL MARKET IN POLAND

The percentage of tenants in Poland is small and amounts to approx. 5%. Although the popularity of tenancy is growing, the need to own a property is exceptionally strong in our country. The fact that the rental market in Poland is quite underdeveloped does not mean that prices are low. In the largest Polish cities, the ratio between the average rent and the average transaction price of residential property as well as the average monthly salary is one of the highest in Europe.

Is it a good solution to rent a property in Poland? To answer this question, it is worth analysing the level of rental profitability. This index can be counted in different ways. The simplest is the quotient of net income from real estate to its value. It is estimated that the rental profitability in the largest agglomerations amounts to approx. 3-5% net per year. It is worth mentioning that several years ago it accounted for approx. 8-10%. The investor must remember that it is important to take into account notary services, taxes, insurance, administrative fees, and also the costs of maintaining the apartment in good condition, ageing of the building and the potential vacancies. The average rate of return on real estate investment is currently much higher than the interest rate of bank deposits. However, investors can earn much more for example on the stock market or by investing in gold, but this is obviously more risky.

Investing in flats for rent usually does not generate huge profits, as it is sometimes mistakenly believed. Competition on the residential market is growing because currently short-term rentals are offered as long-term. In addition, there is no guarantee that the property occupancy will happen quickly because government restrictions related to the pandemic may return. Investors should also remember about the cost of maintaining the apartment in good condition and the possibility of unforeseen renovation.

CHART 1. FORMS OF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS

 

 

source: own study

OTHER FORMS OF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS

Apart from the most popular investments in flat for rent, there are also other forms of investing in real estates. One of them is Flipping, which was elaborated in the AMRON Centre article written by Agnieszka Bartoszewska entitled “House Flipping – an unexplored phenomenon on the real estate market”. The alternative is also an investment in aparthotels, but due to the crisis in the tourism sector, we cannot expect immediate returns. An interesting option is Crowdinvesting, which consists in investing a small amount of money in the form of partnerships. The biggest advantages of social investment are: low risk of capital loss, no need to service tenants and the possibility of withdraw money at any time. Another alternative is subletting a property. It consists in signing a tenancy agreement and then renting the property to another person at a higher price. Such an undertaking must obviously be agreed with the property owner. Some investors search for apartments with adverse layout of rooms, make purchases, and then divide them into smaller ones. Thanks to this, they can rent the premises to more tenants and simultaneously earn more.

SUMMARY

Investing in real estates should be preceded by a thorough analysis of the local real estate market. When considering buying an apartment for rent, it is worth deciding which segment of the market we are interested in – renting for a family with children, students or other tenants. The analysis of the profitability of such an investment must take into account the potential vacant space during the holidays in case of students or probably a long rental period and lower renovation costs for families with children. It should also be remembered that housing prices in various market segments react slightly differently to changes in the economic situation. In addition, the stability of the real estate market may differ depending of the region. This is an important matter in case of exit from the investment. Before deciding to put capital into real estates, it is worth seeking information from reliable sources or from real estate professionals.

Ewelina Staruch
Real Estate Market Analyst

The H-frame and the large-panel are two competitive technologies for construction of multi-family buildings, that were used in Poland in the second half of the 20th century. Both are based on the use of prefabricated and repeatable elements that make the construction of the building process much faster and less complicated than other technologies. The need to speed up the construction process appeared in Poland after the end of World War II, when the vast majority of the population was deprived of their homes because of war damages. Social policy of the Polish People’s Republic was based, among others, on the rapid restoration and provision of housing resources for society. Prefabricated technologies were used to achieve this goal. What is the difference between large-panel buildings and H-frame buildings?

H-frame

The H-frame technology is based on creating the structure of the object that consists of a prefabricated reinforced concrete frame, resembling the stretched letter H.

PICTURE 1. H-FRAME CONSTRUCTION IN MULTI-FAMILY BUILDINGS (ELEMENTS: 1 – POLE, 2 – BOLT, 3 – COLUMN CONNECTIONS, 4 – BOLT CONNECTIONS, 5 – INTERMEDIATE BOLT)

Source: http://www.relaiscdo.eu/budownictwo/budynki-zelbetowe-prefabrykowane-cz-1 (access: 15.07.2020)

The reinforced concrete skeleton is the supporting structure of the building, which is then filled with bricks or hollow bricks. Visible elements of the structure (columns, beams) are a distinctive element, but also a main disadvantage of apartments in such buildings. The characteristic feature of buildings constructed in this technology is lack of load-bearing walls inside the apartments, which is an invaluable advantage that enables any arrangements of their interiors. Other significant advantages of construction in this technology are: high durability, good acoustics and thermal insulation. It is also worth to mention that the current trends in development constructions refer to the H-frame technology. Its contemporary continuation can be seen in a variant of the monolithic technology, in which a reinforced concrete skeleton structure is used on the construction site.

LARGE-PANEL

The construction based on the technology of large-panel was based on the assumption that the buildings were erected from ready-made concrete prefabricates. The individual concrete elements were manufactured in the so-called ‘house factories’ and then transported to the construction site. In large-panel systems, all elements, such as external walls, ceilings, as well as partition walls, load-beating walls, stairs and elevation shafts, were produced. Compared to the H-frame, the large-panel is characterized by low quality and imprecise workmanship. Leaks at the joints of the panels also have an impact on problems with thermal insulation or moisture in buildings. The durability of large-panel buildings at the time of their construction was estimated as 40 – 50 years.

PICTURE 2. CONSTRUCTION OF A MULTI-FAMILY BUILDING IN LARGE-PANEL TECHNOLOGY

Source: http://www.administrator24.info/artykul/id5106,wielka-plyta-do-modernizacji (access: 15.07.2020)

The interiors of apartments in large-panel buildings are difficult to arrange because of the load-bearing walls that cannot be demolished. Considering that apartments in large-panel buildings were characterized by a large number of small, dark and low rooms, the lack of the possibility of rearranging their interiors may effectively discourage potential buyers on the secondary market from choosing such an apartment. A characteristic phenomenon associated with large-panel buildings is also the deterioration of the quality of newly erected buildings over time. Increasingly meticulous maximization of construction savings meant that at the end of the 20th century, apartments with dark kitchens (without access to daylight) were build, worse-quality finishing materials were chosen (e.g. parquet was abandoned in favour of PVC tiles, and in the following years it was the standard to hand over flats for use without finished floors) and the degree of furnishing of apartments had been increasingly limited. This means that in case of large-panel buildings, there are large differences in the quality and standard of buildings depending on the year of construction.

Summary

Buildings constructed in the H-frame technology are much more durable, easier to arrange (e.g. during renovation) and cheaper to operate, compared to large-panel buildings. Load-bearing walls occurring in the interiors of narrow and low apartments in large-panel buildings make it impossible to adjust the apartment layout to your own needs. Problems with thermal insulation of large-panel buildings mean that their residents have to bear much higher costs of heating their own premises. It is also worth to mention that complexes of buildings constructed in both technologies even until the 1980’s did not provide the needs related to private transport, which is widespread nowadays. This problem concerns the insufficient number of parking spaces for residents in the immediate vicinity. The fact that the surrounding area has been already intensively developed makes it difficult to designate areas for the location of new parking lots. Increased traffic is also associated with the problem of narrow residential access roads, on which parking cars additionally hinder the movement for both pedestrians and drivers. However, it is worth noting that the greatest advantage of housing estates built in the discussed technologies is their location. When the buildings were constructed, their location did not seem attractive. These were often areas with no necessary infrastructure or service facilities for residents. However, now their spatial context and location have significantly changed. The spatial development of cities has resulted in the fact that, over several decades, the housing estates constructed with the use of prefabricated technologies have gained a good location in the urban space. These estates are well-connected to the city center, with extensive local infrastructure and service and commercial facilities, which may constitute a competitive advantage over new development investments located on the city outskirts.

Barbara Mariańska
Maintenance and Development Specialist

On April 30, 2020, the Act amending Geodetic and Cartographic Law and some other acts was published. The main reason of the amendment was to specify the rules of geodetic and cartographic works performance and to clarify legal relations between the contractors of the works and the geodetic and cartographic administration bodies. In addition, changes were aimed to facilitate the implementation of geodetic and cartographic works, including reduction of the number of bureaucratic procedures and, consequently, accelerate the entire investment and construction process.

A significant change introduced by the new law is the abolition of the obligation to report construction objects stakeouts to the Poviat Starosty. Furthermore, in case of any geodetic works, an obligation was introduced to appoint geodetic works manager, who holds professional qualifications in the field of geodesy and cartography. The amendment simplified the method of charging fees for the documents surveyor needs to work by introducing a flat-rate fee for full access to the materials of the National Geodetic and Cartographic Resource (PZGIK). PZGIK’s data and documents are made available to the contractors of surveying works after receiving a notification about the commencement of works, without the need to apply for each of the data separately. In addition, the new regulations introduce the obligation to allocate the income from maps and other PZGIK materials sale to finance the tasks of the National Geodetic and Cartographic Service. Commencement of geodetic works before submitting the notification of their intention to the starost is a new possibility. However, the notification should be made no later than 5 working days from the date of beginning of works.

The amendment also relates to the land and building register: the necessity to submit an application to update information in the register has been withdrawn and the register’s information scope has been reduced. New regulations provide for updating the information in the land and building register records on the basis of materials in PZGIK ex officio, by the means of material and technical actions. The information gathered in other state registers was excluded from the land and building register, among others data on lease agreements, entries in Register of Historical Monuments, information whether the area is covered by a form of nature protection and data on the cadastral value of real estate.

Changes also included the procedure of obtaining professional qualifications in the field of geodesy and cartography. In the event of death of person supervising the work during apprenticeship, the person carrying it out may confirm the completion of the apprenticeship just by submitting a declaration.

The amendment to the Act on Spatial Planning and Development introduced the obligation to create, maintain and update an electronic versions of spatial data sets for all types of spatial planning acts. New regulations will apply to spatial development plan, study of the conditions and directions of spatial development and the local spatial development plan. New provisions apply to both new acts and acts already in force. What is more, the minimum scope and method of keeping spatial data sets for spatial planning acts were specified. The data so far available on request and for a fee will be made available free of charge on the website www.geoportal.gov.pl. These will include topographic data, orthophotomap, LIDAR measurement data, Digital Terrain Model, data on geodetic control networks, basic data on plots and buildings. The introduced solutions are to create national consistent databases and sets describing the scopes of acts of spatial planning and related documents. According to the Ministry of Digital Affairs and the Ministry of Regional Development, the universal access to data will be a foundation for innovative goods, services and products, stimulating the development of the economy by creating new work places and encouraging investments in business and industry.

Most of the amended provisions of the Geodetic and Cartographic Law will come into force three months after its publication in the Journal of Laws, i.e. on July 31, 2020, except for the provision introducing the obligation to allocate income from the sale of maps and other PZGiK materials for financing the tasks of the National Geodetic and Cartographic Service, which will come into force on January 1, 2021. New provisions related to the field of digitization of spatial planning will enter into force on October 31, 2020 and the implementation of sets of existing planning acts is to be completed by the end of April 2022. Currently, the Ministry of Regional Development is engaged in consultations of a draft regulation on spatial data sets and metadata in the field of spatial development. The draft regulation specifies a new classification of spatial planning documents and the obligatory data, which will have to be collected.

Most of new regulations were aimed to facilitate access to data, and in practice, probably to accelerate the implementation of geodetic and cartographic works performed as part of the investment process. Reducing the formalities between the surveyor and the Poviat Starosty will allow the surveyor to obtain the necessary documents faster. The proposed changes are to shorten the time needed to perform geodetic works as part of the ongoing investments from 2 months to 18 days. The application of the regulations in practice will verify whether the introduced changes significantly improve the investment process.

Marta Polkowska
SARFiN System Data Administrator
Maintenance and Development SpecialistAMRON Centre

Quite recently, the housing market was booming and another record-breaking results were noted in mortgage sales. Increasing wages, stable situation on the labour market and low interest rates encouraged to purchase dwellings and take out housing loans. However, the appearance of the ‘black swan’ in March 2020 – the new coronavirus disease, changed the situation radically. Banks reacted immediately to the risk increase due to uncertainty about the economic effects of COVID-19 epidemic, and significantly tightened lending conditions in March. At present, the lockdown is over and interest in dwellings purchasing is slowly growing, but the reality is now quite different.

Lower cost of a housing loan

Banks increased loan margins due to weaker forecasts regarding the economic situation of the country. At the beginning of June, the average margin of a model mortgage loan (in amount of PLN 300 000, at the LtV ratio of 75% and granted for the period of 25 years) amounted to 2.25%, which meant an increase by 0.13 p.p. comparing to February 2020, the last month before the pandemic.

However, the Monetary Policy Council reduced the basic interest rates of the National Bank of Poland three times (by decisions of March 17, April 8 and May 28 this year) by 140 basis points. Thus, the reference rate decreased from 1.5% to historically low level of 0.1%, and WIBOR 3M at the beginning of June 2020 amounted to only 0.27%. Consequently, despite the increase in loan margins, the average interest rate of a model housing loan amounted to 2.53% in June (by 1.32 p.p. less in relation to February) and instalments of PLN loans diminished to historically low levels. The instalment for a model loan (with assumptions mentioned above) decreased by approx. PLN 200 in comparison to February (from approx. PLN 1 600 to PLN 1 400 per month).

CHART 1. AVERAGE MARGIN AND INTEREST RATE OF A HOUSING LOAN

* mortgage loan in amount of PLN 300 000, LtV ratio – 75%, lending period – 25 years

source: AMRON Centre based on banks’ credit offers

Suspension of loan repayments

Instalments will decrease in a few months, when the repayment schedule is changed. Those borrowers, who already have financial problems, may benefit from banks’ offer to postpone repayment of housing loans for a period of up to 3 or 6 months. This possibility provides an actual support for borrowers who have lost the job and financial stability, but it should be remembered that this solution is not for free, because the amount of the remaining loan instalments will increase or the total loan repayment period will be extended.

According to data of Credit Information Bureau as of May 25, 2020, 130 thousand borrowers have already postponed repayment of instalments.

Higher own contribution

Low interest rates encourage to take out housing loans, but on the other hand the situation on labour market is uncertain and several large banks, trying to protect themselves against the negative effects of a pandemic, have decided to increase the minimum own contribution. Bank Pekao increased the required own contribution to 15% (previously 10%), PKO BP and Pekao Bank Hipoteczny – from 10 to 20%, and ING Bank Śląski, BOŚ Bank and BPS grant loans for only 70% of the property value (previously 80%). The own contribution in BNP Paribas, Citi Handlowy and Bank Pocztowy remained at the level of 20%.

Certainly, it is still possible to finance the purchase of real estate by a mortgage loan with a 10% downpayment, but the number of banks with such offer is much smaller than 3 months ago and the lending criteria are more stringent. Currently, only 5 commercial banks grant such mortgage loans: Alior Bank, Credit Agricole, mBank, Bank Millennium and Santander Bank Polska. However, most banks require additional conditions, for example Santander Bank Polska offers housing loans with only 10% own contribution exclusively to its current customers, other customers can get a loan with 20% downpayment.

TABLE 1. MINIMUM OWN CONTRIBUTION IN JUNE 2020

Bank	Minimum own contribution
ING Bank Śląski	30%
BOŚ Bank	30%
BPS	30%
PKO BP	20%
Pekao Bank Hipoteczny	20%
BNP Paribas	20%
Citi Handlowy	20%
Bank Pocztowy	20%
Pekao	15%
Alior Bank	10%
Credit Agricole	10%
mBank	10%
Bank Millenium	10%
Santander Bank Polska	10%

source: AMRON Centre based on banks’ credit offers

Tightened lending conditions

Concerned about the economy standing and the solvency of borrowers, banks, in addition to increased own contribution requirements, also became more conservative in creditworthiness calculations. The requirements for granting mortgage loans for persons running own business or employed under a civil contracts or fixed-term contracts have been tightened, some banks even do not accept such forms of employment. Particular attention is also paid to the sector of borrowers employment. Economic sectors most affected by pandemic (e.g. hospitality, tourism, transport, gastronomy) are presently on the increased-risk list, and people employed in those sectors have limited access to housing loan.

The loan interest rate is lower, but access to mortgage loans is more difficult. If such stringent criteria for new housing loans are not eased, the housing demand may decrease, because some potential buyers will not be able to get financing.

Decline in demand

The first negative consequences of the COVID-19 attack on the housing loan market were already visible in March this year. Many buyers withdrew from the transaction because they lost their creditworthiness or it decreased significantly. Lockdown, tightening of banks’ lending policy and deterioration of the situation on the labour market resulted in housing loans demand (expressed as the value of BIK Index – Demand for Housing Loans, informing about the annual value changes of applied housing loans ) decrease in April 2020 by 27.6% in comparison to the same month of the previous year. According to AMRON Centre data, the number of concluded loan agreements diminished by 20.7% in April (yearly), and the value decreased by 11.3%. In May, a slight improvement was recorded – BIK Index amounted to -24.2%, i.e. by 3.4 p.p. more than in April, however, it is far too early to forecast whether this means a return to the upward trend.

CHART 2. HOUSING LOANS DEMAND (ANNUAL RATES)

source: BIK

May was the first month of stepwise reducing the restrictions implemented by government to stop the spread of COVID-19. Consumer confidence was improved by defrosting the economy, government support in the form of anti-crisis shield and the possibility of temporarily postponing the loan repayment, however, job insecurity and fear of the future is still strong. On one hand, housing loan costs are record-low, there is no attractive possibilities of investing and inflation is high, but on the other hand people are afraid of losing their jobs and access to housing loans is difficult. It is therefore difficult to say, which side will prevail and what the housing market will look like in the post-COVID time. It will depend on whether the second wave of pandemics will return in the autumn, how long the period of postponing purchases will last, how much and how fast the level of unemployment rate and inflation will increase, and finally how much the money supply will be increased by the government and the NBP.

Agnieszka Pilcicka
Senior Real Estate Market Analyst