AMRON-SARFiN Report 1/2026
The results of Q1 2026 reinforce the lending revival trend observed over the last three quarters. Between January and March of this year, banks in Poland granted more than 73 thousand new housing loans for amount of PLN 33.4 billion. A sharp acceleration in lending activity occurred in March. At that time, the highest number of loan applicants in over a dozen years was recorded, reaching 144 thousand. This was the result of mobilisation among borrowers, both those with periodically fixed-rate loans taken out in the last five years and those with variable-rate loans. For many months, the Monetary Policy Council’s next decisions on interest rate cuts had been eagerly awaited in hopes of refinancing active loans with new, periodically fixed-rate loans, but at a significantly lower interest rates. Analyses by the AMRON Centre show that the share of refinancing loans increased over the past year from 8% in Q1 2025 to 28% in Q1 2026, including 6.5% of refinancing loans within the same bank.
The intensifying competition among banks also contributed to the increase in mortgage refinancing activity. It was additionally prompted by the upcoming interest rate adjustments on many existing loans. Banks decided to reduce loan margins once again, which was directly reflected in a decline in the real cost of debt service. According to NBP data, the average interest rate on new housing loans granted in Q1 2026 amounted to 5.97%, representing a decrease by 0.42 pp quarter-on-quarter and by more than 1.5 pp year-on-year.
Alongside borrowers seeking lower-cost refinancing, there was also a growing number of investors and homebuyers, who had delayed property purchases and mortgage borrowing in recent months in anticipation of lower interest rates. The Israeli-American attack on Iran not only dashed hopes for further interest rate cuts, but also pushed up funding costs in forward transactions.
The total value of the active housing loan portfolio increased to more than PLN 519 billion, despite the continued decline in the number of such loans. The number of active housing loan agreements in Poland at the end of Q1 2026 accounted for 2.140 million and was by 5.09% lower than a year earlier. Compared with the record level of the housing loan portfolio at the end of 2021, the number of active loan agreements decreased by more than 400 thousand.
An analysis of transaction prices over the past few quarters reveals signs of stabilization. Price stability on the real estate market continued in the first quarter of 2026, while most of the analysed cities recorded modest quarter-on-quarter declines in nominal prices. In five of the six largest urban centres average transaction prices per 1 sqm of usable floor area of an apartment declined slightly (i.e. by 0.5 to 1 pp compared with Q4 2025). The only city to break away from this trend was Gdansk, where average price increased by 2.22%.
On a year-on-year basis as well, Gdansk remains the leader in price growth, with the average price per square metre more than 6% higher than in Q1 2025. Moderate increases in the average price, up to 1 pp annually, were recorded in Poznan, Lodz and Warsaw. By contrast, Wroclaw and Cracow recorded year-on-year declines of 3.36% and 2.39%, respectively. The case of Wroclaw is particularly noteworthy, as it continues the downward trend observed in previous periods, which may indicate a lasting saturation of the local market and an effective reassessment of sellers’ price expectations.
The rental market also remained stable in terms of prices, reflecting an increase in the supply of rental housing. At the same time, improved mortgage availability has led some current tenants to transition into homeownership, thereby releasing housing stock for new entrants and constraining the scope for sharp rent increases. Quarter-on-quarter, in most of the largest cities, i.e. in Warsaw, Katowice, Wroclaw, Gdansk and Cracow, increases in average residential rent rates did not exceed 2%. The smallest changes were recorded in Cracow (+0.34% compared with the previous quarter) and Warsaw (+0.64%), while in Poznan average rent rates decreased symbolically by 0.84% compared with Q4 2025. Only in Lodz the growth rate was higher and amounted to 3.79%. Year-on-year, the leaders in rents growth remained Warsaw (+7.04% y/y) and Lodz (+6.73% y/y).
Developers also assess the results for the first quarter of 2026 positively, even though most companies recorded a decline in sales quarter on quarter. This was due both to seasonality — the beginning of the year traditionally sees lower buyer activity because of the holiday break and winter school holidays — and to the high base from the end of 2025, when companies sought to maximize their sales results. At the same time, most developers recorded year-on-year sales growth. Despite the slower sales pace in the first quarter, companies’ full-year targets point to continued optimism. The largest developers plan to achieve sales at a level comparable to or higher than last year.
Developers were granted building permits for as many as 45 900 residential units, which represents an increase of nearly 11% year-on-year. By contrast, the number of constructions started was clearly lower than last year. In the first quarter, developers started construction of 30.9 thousand dwellings, which was a result by 15% weaker than a year earlier and the weakest opening of the year since 2023.
The fact that the number of permits was half higher than the number of construction started confirmed that developers were intensively securing project portfolios but were waiting to launch them until the surplus of completed units is sustainably absorbed by the market. In addition, the clearly harsher winter than in previous years, which hindered the start of construction works, should be indicated as a reason for the markedly lower number of construction started than in the corresponding period of the previous year. From the end of February, developers’ decisions were also influenced by geopolitical uncertainty and the related expected cost pressure on building materials. The primary market adopted a strategy of wait-and-see readiness, i.e. building permits for future cycles were being secured on a massive scale, while actual activity was limited, with companies focusing on selling completed inventory and protecting margins.
At the same time, the expected slowdown in completed constructions was recorded. In Q1 of this year, developers delivered 26.1 thousand housing units, which represented an almost 40% decline quarter-on-quarter and a 6% decrease year-on-year. This data pattern signals that the sector is moving into a phase of cautious expansion, where the priority remains to align new supply with current market absorption, while at the same time building up resources for future investment cycles. Developments in the second half of the year will likely depend on trends in inflation, interest rates and buyer sentiment.
The topic of housing affordability for young people entering adulthood keeps returning to public debate and the media like a boomerang. The Ministry of Development and Technology is finalising work on a new draft act intended to pave the way for low-cost rental housing. Fortunately, the proposed solutions do not interfere with the developer and banking markets, which have successfully supported the growth of housing construction in Poland based on market mechanisms. The stabilisation of transaction prices and, in some places, and in some places even price corrections, as well as changes in commercial rental rates, confirm that the self-regulatory mechanism in this area is beginning to function properly.
We are observing the work being carried out on the government’s ‘DOM Portal’ project with interest and support. It is in the common interest of both the creators of this portal and the Polish Banks Association to strengthen efforts to implement the Electronic Real Estate Card, guaranteeing the consistency and reliability of information collected in various records and registers.
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