AMRON-SARFiN Report 1/2014

In the last issue of the Report, we summarised the previous year and estimated its results on mortgage market as the weakest since 2005. At the same time, sales results in developers’ sector were impressive. Analysis of the results for the first quarter of this year bring similar observations. Explanation of such divergence seems to be quite simple. Significant part of transactions on housing market are concluded with no mortgage loan.  Polish purchasers – but not only them, as the increasing share of transactions concluded by Ukrainian purchasers is noticeable – came to conclusion that investment on housing market is not only safer, but also more profitable way to locate savings, deposited until now in banks or investments funds. Especially when further prices decrease seem to be highly unlikely. Purchase of a flat may also be considered as a guarantee of financial stability on retirement as a potential source of additional incomes.

Due to already confirmed seasonal cyclicity of both mortgage and – which is more obvious – housing market, analyses presented in the Report refer to numbers noted in Q1 2014 in relation to numbers noted in previous quarter (Q4 2013), as well as to those of respective period of previous year, i.e. Q1 2013. Unfortunately, even such an operation does not bring the positive conclusions in scope of mortgage lending. The only consolation is the fact, that the results recorded in Q1 2014 were better than the results of first quarter of… 2009! However, from the other hand, no one did actually expect the reverse of the downward trend that lasts continuously since half-year of 2011. Results noted in the analysed period, both in terms of volume (41.9 thousand) and value (PLN 8.8 billion), may be considered as a good basis for improvement in further quarters, all the more that on housing market there was observed the promising revival.

Significant changes may be observed in particular in relations to the results of Q1 2013 – number of new constructions started increased by 49% and number of issued construction permits grew by 16%. Analysis of the transaction prices noted in Q1 2014 confirms the continuous stabilization at all observed markets. The greatest divergences were recorded in Poznan (plus PLN 95 per sq.m.) and in Katowice agglomeration (minus PLN 44 per sq.m.)

The new government Programme „Flat for Youth” started at the first quarter of this year. Loans granted during those three months, which fulfilled the Programme’s criteria, constituted 10% of the new loans portfolio. That is not a bad result, however the final opinion on its attractiveness is still a matter of future assessment. Implemented ratios for calculating the price limits definitively discriminate citizens of particular regions of our country. Let me suggest to base the first verification of the Programme’s terms of limits’ calculations on AMRON database – AMRON means NORM!

The General Assembly of Polish Banks Association took place in April 2014. During the meeting, the housing recommendations defined few years ago were once more confirmed. Adequate proposals, including complete drafts of required bills, were delivered to Parliament, Government, National Bank of Poland and Polish Financial Supervision Authority. We are not waiting for government’s initiatives – we present solutions. Issue of the key importance for further development of housing market is a system supporting long-term saving on housing purposes.

Jacek Furga
Head of AMRON Centre

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