| | Q2 2024 brought significant decrease
on mortgage loans market, both in terms of volume and value – from April to June,
there were concluded 45 434 loan agreements for the total amount of PLN 19.118
billion, which was less by 29.56% in volume and 28.87% in value, compared to Q1
this year.
The main reasons for such a huge
change were: more rigoristic criteria for new borrowers and no clear declarations
regarding new government programmes supporting mortgage borrowers, as well as
Monetary Policy Council’s decision on maintaining the interest rates at
unchanged level of 5.75% and – last but not least – obvious decrease in
developers’ activity. |
| | First quarter
of 2024 on mortgage market brought decrease in number of newly granted loans by
6.33% compared to the end of lats year. Value of loans granted in Q1 2024 was
lower by 4.52% compared to Q4, 2023, however in relation to the first quarter
of 2023 it increased by as much as 259.67%. Creditworthiness of Polish
borrowers increased as well, mostly due to growing salaries and stable, but
high interest rates and decreasing inflation.
Number of
started constructions in growing – in Q1 2024 it amounted to 60 078, i.e.
almost 20% more tan in previous quarter. Number of newly issued construction
permits was higher by 3.27% compared to
Q4, 2023. At the beginning of the year, increases in average transaction price
of 1 square meter of a housing unit were also observed. |
| | In 2023, mortgage lending
increased considerably, comparing to the previous years’ results, mostly due to
the new "Safe Loan 2%"’ programme and first in three years significant reduction
of the NBP reference interest rates. However, despite the record number of new
loans, the result of 2023 is comparable to 2004 and amounts to 162 thousand. Dynamics
and value of the mortgage market is reflected in value of new loans, which in
2023 accounted for PLN 62.8 billion, i.e. over four times the value of new
loans granted in 2004 (which was PLN 15.2 billion).
In Q4 2023, developers
started construction of 34 328 housing units, which was by 6.47% more than in
previous quarter. There was recorded a dynamic growth in number of newly issued
permits for construction of housing units, which was higher by 14.32%. Number
of completed housing units also increased compared to the previous quarter – by
21.31%. |
 | | Third quarter of 2023 brought dynamic changes in
mortgage lending scale. In this period banks granted 40 749 mortgage loans,
i.e. more by 32,31% than in previous quarter. Increase by 40,20% was also
recorded in terms of value of new loans, which amounted to PLN 15.843 billion. These
numbers are comparable to results observed in the first half of the last year,
which was the time just before the deep crisis on the market at the turn of
2022 and 2023.
Increase in mortgage lending was related mostly to
launching the new government programme “Safe Loan 2%”. During the three first
month of the programme on the market, its potential beneficiaries submitted to
banks approx. 50 thousand of mortgage loan applications, which resulted with 15
thousand concluded loan agreements. The average value of a mortgage loan in total
increased again and in Q3 2023 it amounted to PLN 387 980, which was by 5.97% more comparing
to the value noted a quarter ago. This was the highest value already recorded
in the history of mortgage lending in Poland. |
 | | In relation
to the results noted at the end of Q1 2023, when the long-awaited increase in
both number and value of new loans was recorded, in Q2 2023 good results
continued. However, scale of mortgage lending is still low and high dynamics
should be attributable mostly to the base effect, which in this case were the catastrophic
results noted in previous quarters. In Q2 2023,
30 798 mortgage loans were granted, which was by 40.19% more than a
quarter ago. Increase by 51.22% was also observed in value of new mortgage loan
agreements, which amounted to PLN 11.3 billion. The average value of a new mortgage
loan granted in Q2 2023 was also record-breaking and amounted to PLN 366 139,
i.e. 7.87% more than in Q1 2023. In housing
construction industry, Q2 2023 was the time of continuous prudence in terms of
new investments. Even though the housing ratios increased in relation to levels
of Q1 2023, the yearly comparison prove the significant, i.e. by 29.2% decrease
in number of housing units under construction and by 35.46% decrease in number
of permits for housing units construction. Only number of completed housing
units increased – it was higher by 3.31% than a year ago. |
| | Comparing to dynamic drops in mortgage lending in
2022, in Q1 2023 there was recorded a long-awaited increase in both number and
value of newly granted housing loans. Nevertheless, the level of mortgage
lending in Poland still remains very low - high dynamics should be contributed
mostly to the base effect, i.e. a disastrous outcome of the year 2022. As for
December 31, 2022, the number of active mortgage loans in Poland was equal to 2
366 262, while as for March 31, 2023, it was lower by more than 38 thousand.
The value of mortgage loans portfolio diminished by over PLN 10 billion, to the
amount of PLN 486 billion.
In housing sector, an understandable prudence was
observed, particularly taking into account the increases in construction costs.
Compared to results of Q1 2022, the number of housing, the construction of
which was started in Q1 2023, decreased by 27.61% and the number of issued
construction permits diminished by 33.66%. |
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| In relation to dynamic changes
recorded during last months, results of both mortgage lending and housing
market in Q4, 2022 seem to be a sign of stabilisation, however the numbers are
not very optimistic. The number of newly granted mortgage loans equalled to 18 932,
which was less by 10.77% comparing to Q3 2022 and the value amounted to PLN 6.2
billion, i.e. less by 11.97% than in previous quarter.
In terms of completed housing
units, housing sector reached the record level of 238.6 thousand flats and
houses, which was the best result since 1979. But sale results of the whole year
were lower by 38% comparing to 2021 – in terms of number of transactions, the sale
of housing units in 2022 was at the level recorded in 2013-2014. |
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Q3 2022 brought further, dynamic drop in number of new mortgage loans. From July
until September, there were granted 21 218 loans, i.e. by 68.96% less than
in Q3 last year. Value of newly granted mortgage loans amounted to PLN 7.007 billion,
which meant decrease by PLN 6 528 million, i.e. 48.23% in relation to the
previous quarter and by 69.83% comparing to the results of Q3 last year.
Housing
market seemed to adjust to changes on mortgage market. Comparing to the results
of the previous quarter, drop in volume of housing units under construction was
equal to 44.18%. The number of dwellings with newly issued construction permit was
lower than a quarter ago by 33.74%. In total, from January till October this
year, the construction of 178.3 housing units was started, which was by 25.3% less
than it was a year ago.
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For the first
time in a history of AMRON Centre’s market surveys, the number of newly granted
loans was lower than the number of loans repaid in the same period. In Q2 2022,
volume of new loans was lower by 43.70% than in previous quarter, while the
value of new loans was lower by 20.06% compared to Q1 2022 and by 38.85% compared
to the same period last year. The average value of a mortgage loans remained at
the level of approx. PLN 350 thousand.
Second
quarter of 2022 brought diversification of average housing prices dynamics in
surveyed locations. However, increases in housing prices did not exceed the
level of the national consumer price index measured by Central Statistical
Office, which in Q2 2022 accounted for 5.8%.
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In first
quarter of 2022, the significant changes on housing market in Poland were observed.
Russian attack on Ukraine resulted not only with lowering the consumer
optimism, but also with several negative consequences, including most of all
availability of work force, which translated into decreased activity of developers.
Effects of the war in Ukraine are obvious when it comes to numbers describing Polish
housing market in Q1 2022 and we will face them during the following quarters.
In scope
of mortgage lending, the significant decrease in mortgage loans demand was
observed. Number of newly granted loans in Q1 2022 was lower by 25.27% and the
total value of new loans was lower by 24.59% compared to previous quarter.
The average price of 1 sqm of a flat has still been increasing, but the growth dynamics
was far lower than in Q4, 2021. Transaction prices will continue to increase,
but at a remarkably slower pace than in
2018 – 2021.
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As predicted, the year
2021 ended with record-breaking mortgage lending results. The total value of
the newly granted loans, amounting to PLN 86 million, was the historically highest
result of Polish banking sector, while the number of new loans increased by 256
thousand. Total number of active loan agreements exceeded the level of 2,5
million and the total value of mortgage debt exceeded the amount of PLN 500 billion.
However, despite still high results recorded in Q4 2021, first signals of downturn
in mortgage lending can be already observed.
The year 2021 was also
particularly good for developers sector, as it ended with the number of
completed housing units accounting to nearly 235 thousand. Such results were
recorded in Poland in the seventies of the last century. Increases in housing
prices continued during the whole 2021 and reached the peak in Q4 2021.
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Even though the year 2021 has
not ended yet, it seems quite sure that the housing lending results will be the
highest in the history of Polish mortgage market. During last three quarters
banks in Poland granted 192 thousand of new mortgage loans of a total value
amounting to PLN 63 billion and a value of the whole mortgage portfolio
exceeded the level of PLN 500 billion. Along with increased number and value of
newly granted loans, an average value of a new loan increased as well and
amounted to PLN 340 thousand.
Further growths were also recorded in transaction
prices of housing units, while on the private rent market a clear reversal was
observed. The nature of changes depends
on possible restrictions related with the forth wave of coronavirus pandemic.
It is also hard to estimate the potential influence of solutions proposed by
the government within the Polish Deal programme – both for private rent and
mortgage lending.
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Q2 2021 brought continuous increases both on housing and on mortgage markets.
The total housing loans debt of Polish households increased by 1.23% and the value of active mortgage loans for housing purposes amounted to PLN 22.137
billion. The average amount of a housing loan was higher by 5.62% comparing to
the results of previous quarter, and equalled to nearly PLN 330 thousand. These
numbers resulted from a clear trend of increasing values of mortgage loans, as
well as constantly growing prices on housing market.
High demand
on housing market has still been an important incentive for investors’ more and
more intensive activity. Relating to the same period las year, i.e. the period
of first market’s reactions on COVID-19 pandemic, increases were noted in all
categories of the housing market.
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As predicted, the first quarter of 2021 year, despite the pandemic, brought a further increase in the housing market participants' activity. Banks granted higher number of new loans for a higher value, both on a quarterly and annual basis. The average loan value increased again, and the total amount of debt due to housing loans exceeded PLN 480 billion.
An increase in activity was also recorded in the developers' segment and the average level of transaction prices of flats in most agglomerations increased for another quarter in a row.
The decline in rent rates on the private rental market, which has been observed for the past three quarters, also continued, although with noticeable slowdown. The deepest decline was recorded in Łódź - by 2.45% compared to the rent rate recorded a quarter earlier. In other locations, the declines did not exceed 1 pp.
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Last three months of the
year 2020 turned out to be prosperous at the mortgage market, as well as at housing
market in Poland. Increases were recorded both in terms of volume and value of
newly granted loans, and number of completed housing units was higher than a
quarter ago, too. In total, the whole year 2020, despite the pandemic, was one
of the best in the history.
Upward trend in transaction prices has been
continuing, however its dynamics slowed down. Q4 2020 was also a period
of sharp increase in share of mortgage loans granted in the biggest Polish
cities. As for the end of the year, it accounted for 73,46 %. What’s more,
share of Warsaw in the geographical structure of all newly granted loans reached
the record-breaking level of 49,44%, which mas more by 10,46% comparing to number
recorded last year.
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After the significant
slow-down, Q3 2020 brought an apparent change on
the mortgage loans market. Lending conditions have been eased as a consequence of
more optimistic assessment of the situation on housing market and better
prospects for economic development. Last three
months portend returning of the increase trend both in terms of number and
value of newly granted mortgage loans.
Dynamic
revival was also recorded on the new investments market – one quarter period
turned out to be too short for significant and sustainable changes in trends on
the housing market. After the short break caused by official restrictions,
Poles continued housing purchases. Developers also remained optimistic – after weaker
performance in second quarter, the third quarter turned out to be surprisingly
good both in terms of new construction permits and started investments.
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In Q2, 2020 the impact of COVID-19
epidemic on the housing market was clearly visible. In terms of mortgage
lending, decreases at the level of 20% compared to the previous quarter were
recorded, both in number and value of new loans. On the housing market, number
on new transactions on the primary market dropped by 64%, but transaction prices
did not diminish. On the contrary, most of the biggest housing markets
witnessed quarterly increases of a few percent. At the same time, changes on
the private rent market were rather symbolic. "
Preliminary results for July confirm growing trend both in mortgage lending and in developers’
investments, which justifies a prudent forecast of total results for the end of
the year 2020. This year will definitively be underperforming comparing to the
record-breaking year 2019, but the drop in new mortgage lending value may
account for 12% up to 15% compared to the results recorded last year.
" – concluded Jacek Furga, PhD.
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Despite the expected slow-down on the mortgage
market in March this year due to COVID-19 epidemics and its possible impact on
mortgage lending, first quarter was characterised by intensive grows. Recorded
scale of mortgage market performance was higher not only than it was last
quarter, but also compared to the same period last year. Mortgage loans
availability remained at a high level, as well as transaction prices on housing
market. As for the end of March, increases were observed on all monitored
markets. In most of surveyed cities, rent rates of flats also raised. "It is far too soon to predict the impact of the epidemics on Polish housing market. The only thing we may be certain about is the fact that the scale of the turmoil not only on housing market, but in the whole economy, will significantly depend on the time the pandemics lasts" – commented Jacek Furga, PhD.
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During the whole year 2019, 225 073
new housing loans of a total value of PLN
62.629 billion were granted in Poland, which
was more respectively by almost 6%
and over 16% in comparison to the
results recorded in 2018. This meant that the lending
result in 2019 in
terms of volume was the best since 2010, while in terms of value it was the
best result in history.
In 2019, the Polish housing
market reached a new record – 207 224 dwellings were completed, i.e. by
11.91% more than a year ago. It was the best result since 1989. At the
same time, construction of 237 281
dwellings was started (by 6.93% more compared to the previous year) and
268
483 construction permits were issued (more by 4.44%). And all this
despite the same barriers as last year - a systematic and
dynamic increase in building plots prices and construction costs, in
terms of costs of both labour and building materials.
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In Q3, 2019
the forecasted levels of mortgage lending results were once again exceeded, not
only in terms of higher value of new loans comparing to the previous
quarter, but also in greater number of newly granted mortgage loans. After nine
months of the year, value of all loans granted for purchase of flats and houses
reached the level of 87% of the value recorded in the whole previous year and therefore it seems very probable that
the year 2019 will be record-breaking with respect to mortgage lending value.
Quarterly
increases were also observed in housing sector performance – there were noted more completed
units, more started constructions and only slightly less new construction
permits issued. Transaction prices on main housing markets increased again, as
well as rent rates in private rent sector. Results of three quarters allow to
predict that the current year will be record-breaking also for developers
sector.
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Results of banks’ lending activity in Q2 2019 were the highest in 42
quarters. The value of new loans amounted to PLN 16.5 billion and reached the
level of Q3 2008 - the last quarter before the subprime crisis reached Poland! Number of loans granted was also record-breaking – 59 thousand, which
was the highest in 31 quarters. But in Q3 2011, total value of new loans was by
22% lower and amounted to PLN 12.77 billion. This shows how much the average
value of housing loan increased over those 8 years. Construction market also surprised. Increase
in number of construction permits issued in Q2 2019 amounted
to almost 25% comparing to the previous quarter and it was the best result
since the beginning of statistics recorded by GUS. Housing prices also continued to increase - in Q2 2019, an average
transaction price of 1 sq.m. of floor area was higher than the value recorded
in the previous quarter in all analysed locations.
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In Q1 2019,
over 50 thousand of housing loans were granted for a total value exceeding PLN 13.5
billion. This result was only slightly weaker than the result recorded last
quarter. Comparing to Q1 of the previous year, volume of new loans was smaller
by 4.5 thousand, but the total value was higher by nearly PLN 700 million. The
average value of newly granted loans has increased again – the analysed quarter
is the following period, when this tendency was clearly visible. On
housing market, the upward trend in prices has continued, however the growth rate
has slowed down. In the first quarter
this year, the average transaction price of 1 square meter of a housing unit in
Katowice agglomeration decreased and in Gdansk it practically didn’t change.
However, compared to analogous quarter of 2018, the average transaction prices
increased in all analysed locations – growths ranged from
5% to 10%. The growth rate of rent rates decreased as well.
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Most
observers and analysts were surprised by the results on the housing and loan
market in 2018. Everyone was counting on the continuation of positive trends,
but the results at the level of those from the period before the last crisis
began to raise concerns about the near future of the housing market, and in
particular the risk of collapse of the transaction prices of dwellings. In 2018, as in previous
years, the situation on real estate and housing loans markets resulted by the
good economic situation in Polish economy. At the same time, another record-breaking
results on the housing market were recorded. 184 783 dwellings were completed,
the construction of 221 907 dwellings were started and permits for 257 072
apartments were issued. Even in 2007-2008, no such good results were obtained. All
this despite the occurrence of the same barriers as the previous year.
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The average value of a housing loan has been systematically
increasing and in Q3 2018 it exceeded PLN 260 thousand. On
one hand, good macroeconomic condition in Polish economy and rising wages were
conducive to higher loans amounts, but on the other hand this phenomenon has
been forced by constant increase in housing prices and growing demand for larger
floor area of dwellings. However, increases in housing prices were forced by
fast-increasing prices of building materials and construction plots and, above
all, higher labour costs in the construction sector.
The rate of prices increase was high
especially in the last year. Comparing to Q3 2017, in all analysed locations an
increase in the average transaction price of 1 sq.m. of floor area was noted - from
almost 13% in Gdansk, through 9% in Katowice agglomeration, to 6% in Wroclaw.
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In Q2 2018, the number of newly granted housing loans was lower by 2.67% in comparison to the previous quarter, but still it remained at a very high level. In analysed period, banks in Poland granted 53 686 new mortgage loans. Total value of loan agreements concluded in the period from April to June increased by 6.40% in relation to Q1 this year, which resulted in the best result from 2010 - PLN 13.741 billion.
High demand on the residential real estate market and the growing costs of construction work and building materials led to an increase in transaction prices in the largest Polish cities. The average rent rate also increased. In the period from April to June this year, only in Poznan the average rent rate for a dwelling remained at the same level as in the previous quarter.
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In first quarter of 2018 the highest lending activity
since Q3 2011 with the number of over 55 thousand of new housing loans for the
total amount of almost PLN 13 billion was observed, which meant an increase in
relation to the previous quarter by 23.27% and 18.19% respectively. Also, the
developers’ sector did not slow down. In comparison
to the same period last year - the number of construction permits issued was
higher by 10.84%, the number of constructions started - by 8.53%, and the
number of dwellings completed - by 10.65%.
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Year 2017 turned out to be a record-breaking
both on the housing market,
as well as mortgage loans market. During that
period banks granted over
190 thousand housing loans for a total amount of PLN
44 billion, which meant
the best result of the banking sector for six years. It
was remarkably successful
year of dwellings sales by developers, too. The
number of new building permits
and started investments guarantees an
interesting housing offer in 2018.
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The housing market has been recording systematic and
sustainable growth for the last few years. Buying
a dwelling as a capital investment appears now to be the safest form of investing money. It is affected by
low interest rates and growing uncertainty and unpredictability of government
and parliamentary activities in economic regulations, which have been
exemplified by changes in rules of trade in land properties and changes in
rules of wind farms construction and taxation.
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The housing market has been recording systematic and
sustainable growth for the last few years and it is confirmed by the results of
the second quarter of 2017. While interest rates are low, many people consider
buying a dwelling as a capital investment, which brings measurable profits in a
long term. On the other hand, there is also a large group of buyers who change
their "first dwelling" purchased between 2005-2008 during property
boom to larger one in order to improve their current housing conditions.
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Number of housing
loans granted in Q1 2017 exceeded 50 thousand, which meant an increase in
lending activity by almost 20% in comparison to the previous quarter – such increase
has not been observed on Polish market since mortgage boom in 2006 – 2008 and
the following period of market reaction to subprime mortgage crisis in 2010.
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In the current edition of the Report we present the results of fourth quarter and the whole 2016 with reference to the results from several previous quarters and data recorded in 2015. In 2016, there were no major changes recorded on the housing market in Poland. Sale of dwellings, especially on primary market, remained at a high level and in the largest Polish cities prices confirmed clearly a slight upward trend ongoing since 2013. Purchasers withdrew their savings from the financial market and invested in dwellings for rent and therefore a significant increase in share of cash transactions on housing market was noted. This resulted in high developers’ sales results, encouraging them to start new investments.
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Results of
banks’ lending activity in Q3 2016 confirmed opinion presented in previous
editions of the Report that race of potential borrowers to benefit from
funds of the ‘Flat for Youth’ Programme was the basic reason for the high lending
results in the first two quarters of this year. When subsidies expired, the
highest decline in number of loans (quarter to quarter) over last 5 years was observed. Number of new loans granted in Q3 2016 declined by 13.20% in
comparison to previous quarter, while value of newly granted loans
diminished by 8.78%. Despite that the overall results of first three quarters
of 2016 were slightly better than the results of the same period last year and
therefore the repetition of last year’s lending results is likely to be expected.
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The end of ‘Flat for Youth’
Programme, which is approaching very fast, together with seasonality effect typical for Polish
residential market, led to an increase in banks’ lending activity in Q2 2016. During this period, banks granted more than 49 thousand
new housing loans for a
total amount of PLN 10.6 billion, which was more by respectively 9.80% and 12.45% comparing to the previous quarter. Loan portfolio quality remains at the high level. The high demand on real estate
market in Q2 2016 improved developers’ sales results and caused a slight
increase in transaction prices in the largest Polish cities.
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Results of Q1 2016 turned out to be significantly lower than the results of Q4 2015. Despite the high interest in ‘Flat for Youth’ Programme,
a decrease both in number (by 8.15%) and value of new loans (by 10.85%) was
recorded. at the same time, number of active loan agreements as for the end of Q1 2016 for the
first time ever exceeded the level of 2 million. However, further increase in share
of Warsaw market in total structure of new housing loans to a record level of
40.98% noted at the end of March is alarming - it means that almost every second housing loan was granted in the capital city.
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Last year
banks'
lending activity was
the best since 2012, what was caused by very good results of Q4 2015. Both, the
number (181 thousand), and the value (PLN 39.3 billion) of newly granted loans
in 2015 were similar to results of crisis 2009 (respectively 189 thousand of loans
for a total amount of PLN 38.7 billion). We managed to return to the defined several
years ago by the Polish Banks Association the organic ability of Polish market
to generate an annual value of housing loans at level of PLN 38-40 billion
with the volume of 180-190 thousand.
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In 2009 AMRON Centre started publishing the complex AMRON-SARFiN Report on
housing loans and real estate transaction prices. By publishing the Report, most of all we intended
to provide all real estate market participants with interesting and unique
information on housing market and mortgage loans. This initiative succeeded - after six years, AMRON-SARFiN Report is a must-read not only for journalist, bankers, developers, property valuators or parliamentarians and central administration’s
specialists, but also for those, who intend to sell or buy a
dwelling.
This time exlusively English version of Report's jubilee edition is free of charge - download in by clicking the Report's cover on the left.
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Second quarter of this year brought an extraordinary increase in number
and value of new housing loans, which fortunately stopped downward trend
in this segment observed for some time. The number and value of housing
loans granted by Polish banks increased both on a quarterly and annual
basis. In scope of interest rates and housing prices in the biggest
agglomerations, there were no significant changes recorded.
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First quarter of 2015 did not bring the mortgage lending revival that
has been hoped for some time, however the final results turned out to be
slightly better than in analogic period of previous year. Volume and
value of new mortgage loans portfolio was comparable to volume and
value of loans granted in last quarter of 2014, despite lowered margins
and constantly diminishing interests rates.
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The results of the last quarter of 2014
strengthened the downward trend observed since mid-2011, both in terms
of the number of new loans, as well as their total value. Thus, as
predicted by AMRON Centre – 2014 was the weakest year for the mortgage
industry since 2005. Both the number (174 thousand) of granted loans in
2014, as well as their value (PLN 36.8 billion) were lower even than
those obtained in the crisis year 2009 (189 thousand for a total amount
of PLN 39 billion).
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The analysis of banks’ lending activity in Q3 2014 shows that the summer
months have brought a decrease in both number and value of new granted
loans. In comparison to Q2 2014, the value of new loans was lower by
3.61% and amounted to PLN 9.232 billion. Polish banks granted 43 653 new
mortgage loans, which was 4.06% less than in the previous quarter.
Lending activity was also lower comparing to the same period last year.
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Unlike results of Q1 and Q2 2013, which were not congruent with the
model of seasonal cyclicity, the numbers noted in Q2 2014 related to the
results carried out by banking sector in the previous three quarters
confirmed seasonal cyclicity of the phenomena occurring both on housing
loans and – what is more obvious – also housing market.
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In Q1 2014, the decrease of both volume of newly granted loans (41 942,
i.e. -7.65%) and total value of new housing loans (PLN 8 854 Mio, i.e.
-9.35%) was noted. Value of the average housing loan granted in Q1 2014
amounted to PLN 206 thousand, i.e. PLN 3 075 (1.47%) less than the
average value of a loan granted in the last quarter of previous year.
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It was the weakest year for mortgage business since 2005. Both volume of
loans granted in 2013 (176 thousand) and its value (PLN 36.5 billion)
were lower than the volume and value of loans granted in the crisis year
2009. Neither the unusually low interest rates, nor attractive prices,
which seemed to reach its minimal levels in most of locations, were not
attractive enough to encourage potential purchasers to take out a
long-term mortgage loan. Even such an incentive as amended
Recommendation S, which limited loans with LtV ratio at the level of
100% after January 1, 2014, did not work out.
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The third quarter of 2013 in terms of results of
both volume (45.8 thousand of new loans) and value (PLN 9.5 billion) of
newly granted loans, was already the second period recording the
increase of both indicators. Unfortunately, even sustaining such speed
of growth - on the level of c.a. 4% - in the following fourth quarter of
2013, does not change the fact that the most probable results of the
year 2013 will turn out to be lower than those achieved in the worst as
far as till now, the after-the-crisis year 2009.
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It is a great
pleasure to share some good news with you for the first time since last
five quarters. In fact, previous quarter’s mortgage results were the
weakest for four years, both in terms of volume (41.6 thousand of new
loans) and value (PLN 8.0 billion). Fortunately, last quarter’s results
turned out to be better than Q1 2013 and also than Q4 2012.
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As predicted, in Q1 2013 both number and value of newly granted mortgage
loans decreased, respectively by 12.46% and 9.34%, comparing to Q4 2012
results. Termination of ‘Family on Its Own’ Programme and difficult
economic situation resulted in the weakest mortgage results since 2009.
In addition, after several months of downward trend, the average
transaction prices of financed housing units slightly increased.
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Last
quarter of previous year brought the significant decrease in both volume
and value of new housing loans – respectively by 6.25% and 11.76%. Even
the record-breaking results of „Family on Its Own” Programme did not
improve the whole sector’s performance. Value of housing loans granted
in 2012 was 20% lower than in 2011, which was the effect of lower by 15%
number of granted loans and considerable diminution of the average
value of a loan.
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Third quarter
of 2012 was the subsequent quarter of stagnation. Number and value of
new loans were similar to previous quarter’s results, however comparing
to the results of third quarter of the previous year, the significant
drop was noted. Every two out of ten new loans were granted under the
“Family on Its Own” Programme. PLN loans constituted over 97% of total
value of new loans portfolio. During last quarter, transaction prices in
major Polish cities diminished – the decrease equalled from 1 up to
nearly 5%, comparing to second quarter’s results.
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Lending
results for Q2 2012, both in terms of volume (49 620) and
value of granted loans (PLN 10.044 Mio) are very serious signals
alarming turbulences on housing finance market. It was the first time
since several years, when second quarter results turned out to be worse
than results obtained at the beginning of the year. Such situation
negate the regularity observed during few recent years, when results for
second quarter were even 20-30% higher than those for first quarter.
This time it is not as we might have expected.
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In first quarter of 2012, a decrease both in
volume and value of newly granted loans was noted – respectively by
5.96% and 5.46%. In new loans currency structure, the share of
loans granted in PLN grew up to the level of almost 85% share in total
portfolio. The only mortgage lending indicator that reached its maximum
was the average value of a housing loan, which exceeded the level of PLN
209 000.
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Mortgage
lending figures noted in last quarter of 2011 were significantly lower,
both in terms of volume and value (respectively by 13.02% and 15.54%).
However, the result of the whole year turned out to be slightly better
than of the results of 2010. Currency structure of the new loan
portfolio confirms the dominant share of PLN loans (up to the level of
78.58% in 2011). Within the denominated loans, volume of CHF loans had
constantly decreased, contrariwise to EUR loans.
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Mortgage
lending figures as for third quarter of 2011, both in terms of volume
(59 571) and value (PLN 12.8 bn), confirm the decrease of over 4%,
comparing to the records of the previous quarter. Basing on the current
results, slightly weaker than expected, it is hard to anticipate whether
banks and potential borrowers will try to avail the time before the
full version of Recommendation S becomes binding and decide to take the
postponed housing loan decisions.
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In
second quarter of 2011, volume and value of granted mortgage loans
increased in comparison to previous quarter’s results, however it
slightly diminished in relations to the relevant period of the year
2010. Housing units supply increased, what influenced the
decreased level of average prices in the greatest Polish cities.
Borrowers tried to take advantage of the last possible chance for a loan
under the governmental „Family on Its Own” programme. Banks’ decisions
on margins cuts also supported the increasing mortgage lending figures.
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'In
first quarter of 2011, the slight increase in volume and value of
granted loans were noted, comparing to the results of fourth quarter of
2010. However, the increase in both volume and value was pretty
significant, when comparing to the results of first quarter of previous
year.'
– informed Krzysztof Pietraszkiewicz, President of Polish Banks
Association during the presentation of the Report on press conference. What’s
interesting – currency loans disappear from banks’ offer – 80% of the
whole portfolio of newly granted loans were PLN loans.
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